Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[Eric the Green]

(02-12-2019, 07:54 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-11-2019, 09:12 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania is a good bet for the swing state. Whether the Democrats nominate a loser or not, will be the critical factor, of course. A good candidate like McAuliffe or Landrieu, who also have some advantage in being from the South, would probably win North Carolina and Florida, plus Virginia of course, and probably win the 3 Trump Rust Belt swing states comfortably, and take Ohio, Iowa and the western swing states as well. But someone like Booker, Harris, Klobuchar, Warren, Gabbard, O'Rourke or Gillibrand would likely allow Trump to take his southern base and get one of those 2 critical swing Rust Belt states too, which is all he would need since that would likely mean he gets Ohio, Iowa and AZ again too. Brown, Biden or Sanders? It's a crap shoot, but at least their name recognition and having good ability to stand up to him, and with their Rust Belt appeal, they might be able to squeeze through.

I have to disagree with much of this.  The blue collar voters in most states have similar hot buttons, and both Amy Klobuchar and Sherrod Brown have excellent track records appealing to them in states that have been problematic for Democrats for quite a while.  Both have non-elite backgrounds and come across as calm and friendly  and very pro-people.  Of the two, Klobuchar is by far the better speaker; she may be the woman to break through.

The other woman with real potential is Kamala Harris, if she can get her understanding of economics up to her level on criminal justice.  Of the entire batch, she's the best in front of an audience, and that counts for a lot.  Of the remaining women, Warren missed her shot 4 years ago, Gabbard is wacky and Gillibrand is too Hillary-like.

The rest of the men are simply unlikely to break through, and I include Beto O'Rourke here.  His time hasn't arrived yet, though he may be the VP candidate for the Dems.  Both Landrieu and McAuliffe are it in for appointments.  I doubt either sees himself winning in this particular race … barring something bizarre like we have in Virginia right now.

My cosmic indicators say otherwise. And if you pay attention, you will see that they are right. Harris does not speak well. She sounds weak and nasal. I see no potential in Klobuchar, and not sure what you see in her. They both have spoken well in Senate hearings, but that doesn't mean much. Sherrod does have a coarse voice, but once he gets going, his conviction comes through. He could beat the Drump. Landrieu and McAuliffe are not "in it" yet, so I don't see them as angling for appointments. They will run, if they do, because people ask them too, because people see that they are excellent potential leaders. I agree on Warren, Gillibrand and Gabbard. 

I was thinking more about just how those candidates who actually have a chance would do in the states. 

Bernie Sanders

I am a bit nervous about Sanders, just looking at the states. He does have a powerful speaking ability and appeal, although he gets stuck in ruts. He was considered the most popular candidate a while back, but we'll only know whether he will lead the pack once he gets in. He is steadfast and honest in the face of attacks. He has a fundraising advantage. His age is a concern though, although he is robust. The socialist charge will likely hurt him in Trump's southern base, and he could lose most of the other Trump states too. Among swing states, as a leftist Sanders would have a tough climb in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Nevada, although he can win them, and he would probably lose Ohio and Iowa. He would likely win Wisconsin and Michigan though, where he did well in a blue-state primary in 2016. So PA and VA would likely decide the race. His fame and moderate degree of charisma might carry him over the barriers of being a leftist, since he would appeal to a grass roots feeling of the need for real change. But it's a real crap shoot.

Joe Biden

Although he is not the most articulate candidate, emotionally and physically he would stand up well to Trump's insults. He was recently leading in the polls, and although because of his age and more moderate stance he would lose some appeal to progressive millennials, some older ones respect him as Obama's VP. He is one of the strongest candidates who would run in the moderate lane, and that could give him a primary edge. He seems to me to have a better chance in the Trump states than Sanders has. He would sweep through the Trump Rust Belt, and winning PA is a cinch for him. Given Obama's popularity in The West, and Biden's more moderate stance, he would likely win Nevada, and he might penetrate into Ohio and Iowa. He could win a few southern states, Virginia for sure and maybe NC or Florida, though this is dicey. I would still say Biden as nominee is a crap shoot too, but he might have a better chance than Sanders.

Sherrod Brown

Obviously, his strength in his home state of Ohio gives him an advantage, and the other Rust Belt states would go his way too. He likely would win Virginia, but not other southern states, and Nevada and AZ might be out of reach, but he would not need them.

Terry McAuliffe

His emphasis on his ability to create jobs and support transportation infrastructure would play well in the Rust Belt. He would likely sweep it, and his luck would seep south from Virginia to possibly net him North Carolina and Florida. I think he would hold on to the more moderate blue states in the West like Nevada.

Mitch Landrieu

He could have some strength in his native south, possibly winning him Louisiana, where he was Lt. Governor and Mayor. Florida and North Carolina might swing his way, and Virginia would be a cinch. His strength of appeal on the race issue might not play as well in white parts of the Rust Belt, but I think his obvious superiority in likeability and candidate skill would probably carry him to a nationwide victory. He has landslide potential. He is even more like Bill Clinton than Bill's understudy and protege, Mr. McAuliffe.