Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 6-Mar-2019 Rebuilding of North Korea missile site may signal collapse of charm offensive

New satellite imagery shows that North Korea has begun a rapid
rebuilding of the Sohae Launch Facility, used for testing long-range
ballistic missiles.

• Sohae Launch Facility in North Korea, March 2, 2019

The Sohae facility has been inactive since August 2018, when North
Korea committed to dismantle it in order to show "prove" that it was
denuclearizing. North Korea demanded a reduction in sanctions in
exchange. The US agreed to temporarily end large military drills with
South Korea, and has recently extended that to a permanent ban, after
the Hanoi summit ended in failure. At the same time, the US demanded
from North Korea a list of all nuclear and missile development sites,
and a timeline to dismantle all of them.

As with many issues in politics and geopolitics, there's a grinding
logic that means that a problem is insoluble -- not that politicians
haven't thought of a solution, but rather that no solution exists. In
the case of North Korea, denuclearization will never occur.
Therefore, the mutual charm offensive between Donald Trump and Kim
Jong-un had to collapse in disaster at some point. The logic is
inescapable.

So the question is not IF the charm offensive collapse will occur, but
WHEN, and that time may be now. Rebuilding the missile test site
is a clear statement that even the symbolic gestures that have
characterized the charm offensive will come to an end.

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton warned North Korea it must
be willing to completely give up its nuclear weapons program or
perhaps face even tougher sanctions.

Quote: If they’re not willing to do it, President Trump has been very
clear they’re not getting relief from the crushing economic
sanctions that have been imposed on them. And we’ll look at
ramping those sanctions up, in fact.

In December, the US announced new sanctions against three senior North
Korean officials for for human rights abuses and censorship in the
country. The new sanctions were in honor of the Otto Warmbier, the
22-year-old American college student who died after being released
from North Korean custody in June 2017.

Besides South Korea, the Japanese should be very concerned about
further development of nuclear weapons, since Japan more than
the US is the intended target.

It's hard to see what Donald "Art of the Deal" Trump is going to do
next. As I've written many times, Trump's foreign policy completely
baffles the media but makes perfect sense when you understand that
he believes the
Generational Dynamics prediction that we're headed for war with China.

North Korea's goal for the charm offensive was to trick Trump into
agreeing to lift the sanctions without any actual denuclearization.
Trump's goal for the charm offensive was to try to prevent or postpone
the coming war. So it will be fascinating to see what Trump does
next. And I've said many times that I'm not going to criticize Trump
for taking steps to prevent WW III, even if WW III is 100% certain, no
matter what Trump does.

--- Sources:

** North Korea rebuilding missile launch facility, satellite photos show
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/satellit...d=61491867
(ABC News)

** Bolton Warns North Korea of More Sanctions If It Doesn't Budge
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...sn-t-budge
(Bloomberg)


--- Related:

*** 28-Feb-2019 Report: Trump blindsided Kim Jong-un at summit
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...322#p44322


** 17-Dec-18 World View -- North Korea threatens US with 'exchanges of fire' over new human rights sanctions
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181217