Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-May-2019 World View: China's trade retaliation shows a change in attitude

• Cartoon from China's Global Times

China's media are reflecting an increasingly belligerent response
to the US-China trade negotiations, which is more often being
called a "trade war." The strategy change is from deception
and subterfuge to belligerence, threats and confrontation.

China announced a 5-25% tariff on 5,100 American products.
According to Global Times:

Quote: "The measured but firm response from Chinese officials
highlighted China's defiance toward maximum pressure from US
officials amid a fresh escalation in the trade war, while also
seeking to avoid a full-fledged trade war with the US, analysts
said. ...

"Since the US has resumed the trade war, we should hit back hard…
to show the Americans that they will not gain anything from their
tough approach," He Weiwen, a former senior Chinese trade
official, told the Global Times. "But we should also not close the
door to talks.""

The threatened tariffs will hurt small pockets of Americans,
but will have little effect on the economy as a whole.

• Market Watch chart showing how much US-China trade is at stake (Guardian)

This represents a fairly standard Chinese transition from deception
and subterfuge to confrontation, threats and belligerence:

• In 2015, Xi Jinping lied to Barack Obama on the White House
  lawn, saying that China would never militarize the South China Sea.
  A year later, China was openly militarizing the South China Sea
  and threatening military action against transgressors.
  
  
  
• In 2017, China denied the existence of concentration camps and
  crematoria for Uighurs and Kazakhs in East Turkistan (Xinjiang
  province). A year later, China was not denying that millions of
  people were being locked up in the concentration camps, but called
  them "reeducation centers." It's clear today that China is conducting
  genocide and ethnic cleansing of Uighurs and Kazakhs -- and also
  taking increasingly violent actions against Buddhists and Christians.
  
  
  
• Similarly, in 2018 North Korea's Kim Jong-un launched a "charm
  offensive," and promised to denuclearize in meetings with Trump.
  Earlier this year, Kim refused to take any steps to denuclearize,
  apparently believing that Trump would be forced to agree, which is
  what Clinton, Bush and Obama would have done. Kim was apparently
  shocked when Trump walked out of the meeting in Hanoi, and is now
  conducting short-range missile tests.
  
  
  
• Throughout out 2018 and early 2019, China negotiated a trade
  agreement with the US, making written commitments to write
  verification procedures into law, but then at the last moment reneged
  on the commitments, apparently believing that Trump would be
  politically forced to accept the amended agreement. Xi Jinping was
  apparently shocked when Trump rejected the amendments, and imposed new
  tariffs. China is now imposing new tariffs in retaliation.

China and North Korea are very contemptuous of the West, believing us
to be barbarians that they can easily manipulate and threaten. That
attitude worked with Clinton, Bush and Obama, but is being confronted
by Trump.

America has no choice but to confront China's deception and
subterfuge, because doing so would be "appeasement" in the sense that
Neville Chamberlain appeased Hitler. Appeasement is the road to war.

Indeed, Trump is receiving support from Chuck Shumer and the
Democrats, as well as from the international community. There is an
increasing acceptance of the fact that China has been getting away
with lying, fraud and dishonesty for decades, and someone has to stand
up to them.

But confrontation is also the road to war. As I've said many times,
war is 100% certain, no matter what Trump does, but I'm not going to
criticize Trump for steps he takes to try to prevent a world war, even
if preventing a world war is impossible.

What we're seeing is a standard tit-for-tat pattern that leads to a
world war. China will not pull back, because it's bent on a war of
revenge against Japan and a war of annexation against Taiwan, and
Trump is not going to pull back because doing so would be appeasement,
and would do no good anyway.

• Worried traders on Wall Street on Monday (Guardian)

There was a sharp selloff on Wall Street on Monday. In one
sense it was a great overreaction to China's tariff announcement.

However, as I've been writing for a long time, the stock market is in
a huge bubble, and there's no way to predict what event will trigger
the inevitable panic that will lead to a full-scale crash.

Similarly, there's no way to predict what event will trigger
a military clash that will lead to a full-scale world war.

---- Sources:

-- China hits back at US tariffs
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1149756.shtml
(Global Times, China, 13-May-2019)

-- Beijing retaliates to America’s new tariffs with fresh taxes on US
food, machinery and consumer goods, despite president Trump warning
them not to
https://www.theguardian.com/business/liv...iness-live
(Guardian, London, 13-May-2019)

-- Trump Says He'll Meet China's Xi Amid Deepening Rift Over Trade
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ust-eroded
(Bloomberg, 13-May-2019)

-- Global markets fall as China hits back at US with new import
tariffs
https://www.theguardian.com/business/201...nald-trump
(Guardian, London, 13-May-2019)

-- China / Social credit system to restore morality
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1149741.shtml
(Global Times, China, 13-May-2019)