Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

Polls from three states: Michigan, which Trump might barely get away with losing

Glengariff poll, Michigan, for WDIV-TV (NBC-4, Detroit) and the Detroit News. Likely voters:





Every Democrat leads Trump in a binary choice in Michigan, but especially Biden and Sanders:



Impeachment?



Not yet.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/p...331256001/

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Amash is far better known in parts of Michigan, as he is from the Grand Rapids area. I see Michigan going to Biden about as it did for Obama in 2008 if one does not consider conservative or libertarian alternatives as choices in Michigan, or like it did for Reagan against Carter in 1980 with such a conservative or libertarian alternative. Obama in 2008 was much more impressive than Reagan in 1980 in Michigan.

Although matchups between Trump and Democrats other than Biden and Sanders give wider disparities than do those with lesser-known opponents, this may reflect name recognition better than anything else. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination for President will have  name recognition -- fast.

...and a state that President Trump absolutely must win if he is to be re-elected (North Carolina, which has gone for the Democratic nominee for President only once since 1976 -- in 2008):  

Quote:North Carolina: Emerson, May 31-June 3, 932 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Trump also has terrible head-to-head results in this poll.  I'm somewhat skeptical about the sample, which seems too highly educated (54% with a college degree).

It doesn't change the map. That said, there are other points worthy of consideration:Republican Senator Thom Tillis appears to be in a vulnerable position facing re-election against potential Democratic opponent, State Senator Erica Smith, who leads Tillis 46% to 39%, with 15% of voters undecided. Neither does the polling from Michigan (see above).

Quote:In the Governor’s race, the incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper leads his potential Republican opponent Lt. Governor Dan Forest, 52% to 38%, with 10% undecided.

(common noun decapitalized)

Ouch, if you are a Republican.

Issues:

Quote:When asked about recent abortion legislation in the states of Alabama, Georgia and Missouri, a majority of voters (56%) oppose North Carolina passing similar restrictions, with 32% supporting such legislation. 12% of voters are unsure on the subject. Republicans buck the trend with 56% in support of similar legislation, while 29% of Independents and 14% of Democrats support similar legislation. There is no difference based on gender.

On international relations, a majority of voters (51%) oppose sending troops to Iran, with 17% supporting sending troops, and 32% unsure on this issue. There is little support for troop intervention at the present time, with Democrats and Independents opposing sending troops by  6 to 1. Republicans are split, with 30% in support and 27% opposed, 42% are undecided on sending the troops to Iran question.

Texas: Quinnipiac.

Quote:President Donald Trump is locked in too-close-to-call races with any one of seven top Democratic challengers in the 2020 presidential race in Texas, where former Vice President Joseph Biden has 48 percent to President Trump with 44 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Other matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:

    President Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
    Trump at 47 percent to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 44 percent;
    Trump at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 45 percent;
    Trump with 46 percent to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 44 percent;
    Trump at 47 percent to California Sen. Kamala Harris at 43 percent;
    Trump with 46 percent and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro at 43 percent.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

...When one is basically tied in a state that has typically straddled 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for about thirty years, one is in deep trouble as a Republican.  I wouldn't make much of the color change, as the poll for Texas before this one was by a margin of 1 the other way. What matters is that Texas is iffy







Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

...Michigan must be close if Trump is to win nationwide. Should he lose Michigan by double digits, then he is behind by double digits in states holding at least 250 electoral votes. He can win without Michigan, but that is dicey. North Carolina has gone for a Democratic nominee since 1976 only once, and it is a mist-win state for any Democratic nominee. Texas has not gone for the Democratic nominee since 1976, when Jimmy Carter won every ex-Confederate state except Virginia but lost a raft of states that Democrats now seem to take for granted.