07-30-2019, 09:55 PM
Cross-posted in Leip's Election Atlas... the two largest states in electoral votes.
No surprise here.
![[Image: 200px-Electric-eel2.jpg]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Electric-eel2.jpg/200px-Electric-eel2.jpg)
(electric eel -- a shocker!)
It could be that Texas is becoming closer to the USA as a whole in its political orientation. I have seen plenty of polls in which Texas is basically even in approval and disapproval, but unless Trump shtick has recently become unusually offensive to Texas sensibilities, I find this one hard to believe. If you dislike this university poll (as it comes from a college within the well-regarded University of Texas system), then wait for another.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;6&AK=0;3;4&AZ=1;11;5&AR=0;6;6&CA=1;55;7&CO=1;9;7&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;9&FL=1;29;2&GA=1;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=0;6;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;7&LA=0;8;5&MD=0;10;6&MA=0;11;6&MI=1;16;7&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;10;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;14;5&NM=0;5;5&NY=1;29;7&NC=1;15;2&ND=0;3;5&OH=1;18;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=0;7;5&PA=1;20;7&RI=0;4;6&SC=2;9;7&SD=0;3;5&TN=0;11;5&TX=1;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;6&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;12;5&WV=0;5;6&WI=1;10;7&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Trump approval:
40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative
tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher
...................................................................................................
We my be seeing the collapse of a Presidency before our eyes. Donald Trump has had none of the usual preparation for the Presidency; he has no idea of what the powers and limitations are of the Presidency; he surrounds himself with yes-men incapable of telling him to back off when disaster looms; he expresses himself in stream-of-consciousness thought; he treats decorum as a damnable constraint to his effectiveness. His complete lack of a moral compass makes all of his political dealings quid pro quo propositions.
The vote shares that he projects to get against even relatively-unknown political figures (and even people not in the political arena) is consistently lower than his approval ratings.
Do I believe the big splotch of deep red in the middle of the lower tier of US states? I am shocked. On the other hand I see no indication that Donald Trump is a good cultural match for Texas. He is the New Yorker that people love to hate, the sort who does not recognize that his shtick offends. It is much the same in Michigan, which is culturally similar to Upstate New York because it was heavily settled from New York, as it is in Texas.
Quote:California-PPIC
https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/...y-2019.pdf
Trump approval sits at 32%-62% (-30)
Trump is also underwater in every region of the state including the inland (-18%)
No surprise here.
Quote:Texas: UT-Tyler, July 24-27, 1414 RV
Approve 40
Disapprove 54
O'Rourke 49, Trump 38
Warren 41, Trump 38
Sanders 39, Trump 37
Harris 40, Trump 39
Biden 37, Trump 37
Trump 39, Buttigieg 33
(electric eel -- a shocker!)
It could be that Texas is becoming closer to the USA as a whole in its political orientation. I have seen plenty of polls in which Texas is basically even in approval and disapproval, but unless Trump shtick has recently become unusually offensive to Texas sensibilities, I find this one hard to believe. If you dislike this university poll (as it comes from a college within the well-regarded University of Texas system), then wait for another.
Trump approval:
40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative
tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher
...................................................................................................
We my be seeing the collapse of a Presidency before our eyes. Donald Trump has had none of the usual preparation for the Presidency; he has no idea of what the powers and limitations are of the Presidency; he surrounds himself with yes-men incapable of telling him to back off when disaster looms; he expresses himself in stream-of-consciousness thought; he treats decorum as a damnable constraint to his effectiveness. His complete lack of a moral compass makes all of his political dealings quid pro quo propositions.
The vote shares that he projects to get against even relatively-unknown political figures (and even people not in the political arena) is consistently lower than his approval ratings.
Do I believe the big splotch of deep red in the middle of the lower tier of US states? I am shocked. On the other hand I see no indication that Donald Trump is a good cultural match for Texas. He is the New Yorker that people love to hate, the sort who does not recognize that his shtick offends. It is much the same in Michigan, which is culturally similar to Upstate New York because it was heavily settled from New York, as it is in Texas.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.