09-10-2019, 09:12 PM
*** 11-Sep-19 World View -- Donald Trump fires John Bolton over Afghanistan 'Peace Negotiations'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Donald Trump fires John Bolton over Afghanistan 'Peace Negotiations'
****
![[Image: g190910b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190910b.jpg)
John Bolton
President Donald Trump fired National Security Advisor John Bolton
on Tuesday, asking for his resignation on Monday evening, and receiving
it on Tuesday morning.
There are reports that there was a very heated argument in the White
House on Monday evening, principally between Trump and Bolton, over
the collapse this weekend of the Afghanistan "peace negotiations" with
the Taliban.
As readers know, I evaluate policies and actions based on Generational
Dynamics principles. Left-wing and right-wing analyses are usually
delusional and idiotic, and usually turn out to be wrong more often
than right. I've written thousands of Generational Dynamics analyses
in 15 years, and they've been almost 100% correct. Unfortunately for
me, being right all the time when everyone else is wrong doesn't makes
me popular, but only makes me universally hated and shunned, but
that's the way the world is today. Maybe that's also why Bolton was
fired.
So I've had mixed emotions about John Bolton. Bolton has the most
realistic view of the world among the major figures in Washington,
Republican or Democrat, and having someone with a realistic view of
the world advising Trump is valuable. That doesn't mean that I would
agree with all of Bolton's recommended policies, and in fact I don't.
For example, Bolton's recommendations to force regime change in Iran
is overreach, and is clearly in conflict with the Generational
Dynamics view of Iran that I've been posting for years. But Bolton is
still one of the few people in Washington who know what's going on in
the world.
****
**** Donald Trump with Steve Bannon and John Bolton
****
My view of Trump has changed over time. During the election campaign
in 2015-16, it was initially clear every time Trump opened his mouth
that he had absolutely no clue what was going on in the world. But
then something very surprising and unexpected occurred -- Trump hired
Stephen K. Bannon as chairman of Donald Trump's campaign, and later as
Trump's principal adviser in the White House.
This is something I never dreamed would happen. I had worked off and
on with Bannon over a period of years, and he's an expert on both
military history and Generational Dynamics analysis. I was comforted
by the fact that Trump would be guided by one of the very few people
in Washington who knew what was going on in the world.
Even after Bannon left the White House, I wrote numerous articles
about how Trump's foreign policy actions were completely baffling to
the mainstream media, but made perfect sense once you understand
Generational Dynamics analyses, particularly China's plans for war.
Trump pursued extremely successful policies (though completely
baffling to the mainstream media) with respect to North Korea, China,
Russia, India, and others, and I've attributed this to his grasp of
the Generational Dynamics view of the world, that Bannon educated him
on, along with Bannon's knowledge of history and Trump's own "Art of
the Deal" instincts that have been so successful.
****
**** The Afghan 'peace negotiations'
****
That brings us to Trump's Afghanistan policy. Here's the NBC News
description of how John Bolton got fired:
<QUOTE>"Most recently, the two had clashed over Trump's
desire to have leaders of the Taliban visit Camp David in the days
before the Sept. 11 anniversary to finalize peace talks. The idea
was strongly opposed by Bolton, even as officials at the State
Department argued it could move the parties closer to an
agreement, officials said.
Bolton has been deeply skeptical of negotiations with the Taliban.
U.S. negotiators have been working under the president’s demand
that a drawdown occur before November 2020 when he’s up for
re-election."<END QUOTE>
One has to be careful referencing NBC news, since NBC news frequently
lies about White House news, in order to make Trump look bad. However,
other reports seen to confirm this explanation, so it's probably
safe to assume that it's true.
Reports indicate that there was a major disagreement in the
aftermath of the collapse of the Afghan war "peace negotiations,"
and the cancellation of last weekend's "secret meeting"
at Camp David with the Taliban and Afghanistan's president. Bolton
was opposed to the meeting, while Trump was apparently looking
for a photo op.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Afghan "peace
talks" with the Taliban are completely farcical. The Taliban simply
want to get the Americans to withdraw, so that they can go back to
closing girls' schools and killing Hazaras. The Camp David photo op
was harmless, but silly.
My concern with the situation is not that Trump may have wanted the
meeting for domestic political purposes. My concern is that Bolton
was fired for telling Trump what was actually going on, even though
Bolton and Bannon and perhaps only one or two others are the only ones
in Washington that have any clue what's going on in the world. So
with Bolton fired, I'm not aware of anyone left in the White House who
knows what's going on in the world, beyond any simplistic fatuous
left-wing or right-wing ideological or political considerations.
Barack Obama never had any idea what was going on in the world, which
was particularly apparent when he appointed that idiot John Kerry as
Secretary of State. At the end of his term, Obama seemed to have no
more knowledge of the world than he did at the beginning.
Originally, it appeared that it would be the same for Trump, until he
hired Bannon as his principal advisor to educate him. Trump is still
on the correct path with China and North Korea, but with Bolton gone,
we may be returning to the same path as Obama, at least in
Afghanistan.
So the main problem in firing Bolton is not that Trump fired someone
who disagreed with him, but that Trump fired one of the very few
people in Washington who know what's going on in the world.
As for the situation in Afghanistan, Generational Dynamics analysis
makes it clear that there is no chance whatsoever for "peace" in
Afghanistan. A meeting at Camp David is just a meeting, and has no
relevance. But if all American troops withdraw, then the Taliban will
take over completely, as they did until they were dislodged by the
Americans in 2001. They would restore hardline jihadist policies,
such as closing girls' schools, and they would beat, rape and torture
the Hazaras and other ethnic enemies. They might even sponsor a new
bin Laden. The Chinese, who have been developing relationships with
the Taliban since 2017, would take over. Fair or not, like it or not,
America will be blamed for all of it. I think Bolton understands
that, but I don't know whether Trump does.
****
**** End of relationship with Breitbart
****
A number of people have asked me why I no longer cross-post articles
on the Breitbart news web site. This is a summary of what happened.
Starting in 2010, I posted over 3,000 articles on the Breitbart web
site. For a couple of years, they had almost no international
coverage at all on Breitbart, except for my articles. From 2011
through 2018, I posted one or two articles every day, 7 days a week,
365 days a year, missing only about 15 days during that entire eight
year period.
Frances Martel took over as editor of Breitbart international news
coverage in 2014. She and her staff knew little of international
events and issues, beyond the usual right-wing delusions, and so my
daily articles served to educate both her and her reporters about what
was actually going on in the world. (Both the left wing and the right
wing are totally delusional these days.)
And yet Martel always made it clear to me that she would never pay me
a penny for the articles I was writing for Breitbart, even though
Breitbart was making money from the ads that ran with my articles.
So a few months ago, I cross-posted an article as usual, but this one
announced my book, "War between China and Japan." Martel refused to
post the article unless I paid her for an "ad buy."
That was insulting and humiliating enough, but there's more. Last
year, when I posted the article announcing my Iran book, I estimate
that it resulted in 10-20 additional sales, so it was worth about $50
to me, give or take. I would have expected the same result from the
announcement of my China book.
I don't know how much this "ad buy" would have cost -- probably
hundreds or thousands of dollars -- but it's pretty clear to me that
running an ad on Breitbart is almost completely worthless. In fact,
if you look at the ads that they do run, they're almost all garbage.
So I've written thousands of articles for Martel, she got ad revenue
from the ads that ran alongside my articles, I educated her and her
staff about international events, and she refused to pay me a penny.
And then she insulted me further by demanding that I pay hundreds or
thousands of dollars for a worthless "ad buy," after all I'd done for
her, over a period of many years. I did a lot of work for Martel and
Breitbart, and they made money from me, but refused to pay me a penny.
I wasn't expecting to be treated as a hero, but Martel and Breitbart
treated me as a piece of garbage, and I certainly deserved better than
that. But with Gen-Xers in charge, that's the way the world is today.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2) Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99,
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over
100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Donald Trump, John Bolton,
Afghanistan, Taliban, Stephen K. Bannon, China, North Korea,
Camp David, John Kerry, Hazaras,
Breitbart News, Frances Martel
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Donald Trump fires John Bolton over Afghanistan 'Peace Negotiations'
- Donald Trump with Steve Bannon and John Bolton
- The Afghan 'peace negotiations'
- End of relationship with Breitbart
****
**** Donald Trump fires John Bolton over Afghanistan 'Peace Negotiations'
****
John Bolton
President Donald Trump fired National Security Advisor John Bolton
on Tuesday, asking for his resignation on Monday evening, and receiving
it on Tuesday morning.
There are reports that there was a very heated argument in the White
House on Monday evening, principally between Trump and Bolton, over
the collapse this weekend of the Afghanistan "peace negotiations" with
the Taliban.
As readers know, I evaluate policies and actions based on Generational
Dynamics principles. Left-wing and right-wing analyses are usually
delusional and idiotic, and usually turn out to be wrong more often
than right. I've written thousands of Generational Dynamics analyses
in 15 years, and they've been almost 100% correct. Unfortunately for
me, being right all the time when everyone else is wrong doesn't makes
me popular, but only makes me universally hated and shunned, but
that's the way the world is today. Maybe that's also why Bolton was
fired.
So I've had mixed emotions about John Bolton. Bolton has the most
realistic view of the world among the major figures in Washington,
Republican or Democrat, and having someone with a realistic view of
the world advising Trump is valuable. That doesn't mean that I would
agree with all of Bolton's recommended policies, and in fact I don't.
For example, Bolton's recommendations to force regime change in Iran
is overreach, and is clearly in conflict with the Generational
Dynamics view of Iran that I've been posting for years. But Bolton is
still one of the few people in Washington who know what's going on in
the world.
****
**** Donald Trump with Steve Bannon and John Bolton
****
My view of Trump has changed over time. During the election campaign
in 2015-16, it was initially clear every time Trump opened his mouth
that he had absolutely no clue what was going on in the world. But
then something very surprising and unexpected occurred -- Trump hired
Stephen K. Bannon as chairman of Donald Trump's campaign, and later as
Trump's principal adviser in the White House.
This is something I never dreamed would happen. I had worked off and
on with Bannon over a period of years, and he's an expert on both
military history and Generational Dynamics analysis. I was comforted
by the fact that Trump would be guided by one of the very few people
in Washington who knew what was going on in the world.
Even after Bannon left the White House, I wrote numerous articles
about how Trump's foreign policy actions were completely baffling to
the mainstream media, but made perfect sense once you understand
Generational Dynamics analyses, particularly China's plans for war.
Trump pursued extremely successful policies (though completely
baffling to the mainstream media) with respect to North Korea, China,
Russia, India, and others, and I've attributed this to his grasp of
the Generational Dynamics view of the world, that Bannon educated him
on, along with Bannon's knowledge of history and Trump's own "Art of
the Deal" instincts that have been so successful.
****
**** The Afghan 'peace negotiations'
****
That brings us to Trump's Afghanistan policy. Here's the NBC News
description of how John Bolton got fired:
<QUOTE>"Most recently, the two had clashed over Trump's
desire to have leaders of the Taliban visit Camp David in the days
before the Sept. 11 anniversary to finalize peace talks. The idea
was strongly opposed by Bolton, even as officials at the State
Department argued it could move the parties closer to an
agreement, officials said.
Bolton has been deeply skeptical of negotiations with the Taliban.
U.S. negotiators have been working under the president’s demand
that a drawdown occur before November 2020 when he’s up for
re-election."<END QUOTE>
One has to be careful referencing NBC news, since NBC news frequently
lies about White House news, in order to make Trump look bad. However,
other reports seen to confirm this explanation, so it's probably
safe to assume that it's true.
Reports indicate that there was a major disagreement in the
aftermath of the collapse of the Afghan war "peace negotiations,"
and the cancellation of last weekend's "secret meeting"
at Camp David with the Taliban and Afghanistan's president. Bolton
was opposed to the meeting, while Trump was apparently looking
for a photo op.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Afghan "peace
talks" with the Taliban are completely farcical. The Taliban simply
want to get the Americans to withdraw, so that they can go back to
closing girls' schools and killing Hazaras. The Camp David photo op
was harmless, but silly.
My concern with the situation is not that Trump may have wanted the
meeting for domestic political purposes. My concern is that Bolton
was fired for telling Trump what was actually going on, even though
Bolton and Bannon and perhaps only one or two others are the only ones
in Washington that have any clue what's going on in the world. So
with Bolton fired, I'm not aware of anyone left in the White House who
knows what's going on in the world, beyond any simplistic fatuous
left-wing or right-wing ideological or political considerations.
Barack Obama never had any idea what was going on in the world, which
was particularly apparent when he appointed that idiot John Kerry as
Secretary of State. At the end of his term, Obama seemed to have no
more knowledge of the world than he did at the beginning.
Originally, it appeared that it would be the same for Trump, until he
hired Bannon as his principal advisor to educate him. Trump is still
on the correct path with China and North Korea, but with Bolton gone,
we may be returning to the same path as Obama, at least in
Afghanistan.
So the main problem in firing Bolton is not that Trump fired someone
who disagreed with him, but that Trump fired one of the very few
people in Washington who know what's going on in the world.
As for the situation in Afghanistan, Generational Dynamics analysis
makes it clear that there is no chance whatsoever for "peace" in
Afghanistan. A meeting at Camp David is just a meeting, and has no
relevance. But if all American troops withdraw, then the Taliban will
take over completely, as they did until they were dislodged by the
Americans in 2001. They would restore hardline jihadist policies,
such as closing girls' schools, and they would beat, rape and torture
the Hazaras and other ethnic enemies. They might even sponsor a new
bin Laden. The Chinese, who have been developing relationships with
the Taliban since 2017, would take over. Fair or not, like it or not,
America will be blamed for all of it. I think Bolton understands
that, but I don't know whether Trump does.
****
**** End of relationship with Breitbart
****
A number of people have asked me why I no longer cross-post articles
on the Breitbart news web site. This is a summary of what happened.
Starting in 2010, I posted over 3,000 articles on the Breitbart web
site. For a couple of years, they had almost no international
coverage at all on Breitbart, except for my articles. From 2011
through 2018, I posted one or two articles every day, 7 days a week,
365 days a year, missing only about 15 days during that entire eight
year period.
Frances Martel took over as editor of Breitbart international news
coverage in 2014. She and her staff knew little of international
events and issues, beyond the usual right-wing delusions, and so my
daily articles served to educate both her and her reporters about what
was actually going on in the world. (Both the left wing and the right
wing are totally delusional these days.)
And yet Martel always made it clear to me that she would never pay me
a penny for the articles I was writing for Breitbart, even though
Breitbart was making money from the ads that ran with my articles.
So a few months ago, I cross-posted an article as usual, but this one
announced my book, "War between China and Japan." Martel refused to
post the article unless I paid her for an "ad buy."
That was insulting and humiliating enough, but there's more. Last
year, when I posted the article announcing my Iran book, I estimate
that it resulted in 10-20 additional sales, so it was worth about $50
to me, give or take. I would have expected the same result from the
announcement of my China book.
I don't know how much this "ad buy" would have cost -- probably
hundreds or thousands of dollars -- but it's pretty clear to me that
running an ad on Breitbart is almost completely worthless. In fact,
if you look at the ads that they do run, they're almost all garbage.
So I've written thousands of articles for Martel, she got ad revenue
from the ads that ran alongside my articles, I educated her and her
staff about international events, and she refused to pay me a penny.
And then she insulted me further by demanding that I pay hundreds or
thousands of dollars for a worthless "ad buy," after all I'd done for
her, over a period of many years. I did a lot of work for Martel and
Breitbart, and they made money from me, but refused to pay me a penny.
I wasn't expecting to be treated as a hero, but Martel and Breitbart
treated me as a piece of garbage, and I certainly deserved better than
that. But with Gen-Xers in charge, that's the way the world is today.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2) Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99,
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over
100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/
Sources:
- Trump fires John Bolton as national security adviser (NBCNews, 10-Sep-2019)
- Afghanistan / Trump says he canceled peace talks with Taliban over attack (Reuters, 7-Sep-2019)
- Afghanistan / Taliban / US-Taleban talks: An imminent agreement without peace? (AfghanistanAnalysts, 30-Aug-2019)
- Afghanistan peace talks open way for China's Belt and Road (Nikkei, 27-Aug-2019)
- Afghanistan / A Deal With the Taliban Is Only the First Step Toward Peace (ForeignAffairs, 5-Sep-2019)
Related Articles:
- New head of US Central Command says Afghanistan war is unsustainable (06-Dec-2018)
- Afghanistan's president Ghani announces ceasefire with Taliban (20-Aug-2018)
- Afghan Taliban launches multiple terror attacks, then declares farcical ceasefire (10-Jun-2018)
- American army general warns of imminent defeat in Afghanistan war (26-Sep-2009)
- Afghan peace talks collapse day after they're announced (20-Jun-2013)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Donald Trump, John Bolton,
Afghanistan, Taliban, Stephen K. Bannon, China, North Korea,
Camp David, John Kerry, Hazaras,
Breitbart News, Frances Martel
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
