09-17-2019, 10:07 PM
*** 18-Sep-19 World View -- Asian countries concerned about oil price spike after attack on Saudi facilities
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Asian countries concerned about oil price spike after attack on Saudi facilities
****
![[Image: g190917b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190917b.jpg)
This image provided by the US government and DigitalGlobe shows damage to the infrastructure at Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq oil processing facility in Buqyaq. (AP)
Sunday's attack on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure is raising
concerns in four Asian countries -- China, India, Japan and South
Korea -- that the world's oil markets have just taken a sharp turn for
the worst that will result in continuing worldwide oil disruption and
far higher prices.
The governments of China, India, Japan and South Korea have harsh
differences in many areas. China's criminal annexation of the South
China Sea has infuriated everyone. Japan and South Korea are having a
trading war that is becoming increasingly serious and hostile every
day. China and India have numerous border conflicts, and were at war
in the 1960s.
But the four countries are united in their concerns about the
possibility of oil prices spiking, which would hurt all of their
economies. In particular, all four are warning the US against a war
with Iran, which would hugely destabilize the global oil markets, and
send prices sky high.
Most analysts believe that Iran perpetrated the attack, gut there's a
broader problem, but no matter who the perpetrator was. The fact that
the attack occurred at all means that it won't be long before more
terrorists begin using drones to attack oil infrastructure anywhere
and, indeed, any targets anywhere, with permanently high oil prices.
****
**** Identifying Iran as the perpetrator
****
Sunday's attack on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure caused oil prices
to spike 12%, the largest one-day increase in history. However,
prices have retreated slightly, especially after Saudi's announcement
that most of the oil production would be restored within a few days.
If true, the Saudis are being lauded for the resilience they've built
in to the oil infrastructure.
It's pretty much universally believed that Iran was the perpetrator,
and that the attack was launched by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps
(IRGC). Iran denies responsibity for the attack, but it's generally
believed that Iran is responsible, and this is the sixth attack on
Saudi oil facilities in the last four months.
Iran's denials are being disregarded. The claim by the Iran-sponsored
Yemeni Houthis that they launched the attack from Yemen is being
disregarded, and is viewed as an attempt to shield Iran from blame.
According to several reports, all originating from US intelligence
sources, the coordinated attack was extremely sophisticated. US and
Saudi intelligence officials referenced have concluded that 12
low-flying cruise missiles were launched from Khuzestan in southern
Iran, and 5 drones were launched from Anbar province in western Iraq.
According to officials, if the missiles had come from Yemen, then
Saudi radar would have detected them. However, the Saudis were not
prepared to detect missiles coming in from the north.
Even if the Saudis recovered quickly from Sunday's attack, there are
concerns that Iran will simply make more attacks. It's believed that
Iran's strategy is to cause oil shortages and push the price of oil
above $100 a barrel, so that America will be forced to reduce the
sanctions preventing Iran from selling oil. It's believed that Iran
will avoid American targets, since doing so would cause an immediate
military response.
****
**** Trump's response
****
Therefore, analysts are saying that there MUST be a retaliatory
response, to force Iran to stop the attacks.
Few politicians or media people have the vaguest clue about Saudi
Arabia's history prior to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in October.
However, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US is very
deep.
Since the 1930s, America and Saudi Arabia have had a very specific
core understanding: That Saudi Arabia will guarantee to supply all the
oil that America and the West need, and, in return, America and the
West must guarantee the security of Saudi Arabia.
The exact details of the US-Saudi relationship have had to change from
time to time, based on international events such as Iran's revolution,
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the Iraq war, the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan, Obama's nuclear deal with Iran, Syria's civil war, the
rise of ISIS.
While the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis and subsequent Iranian behavior
drove a wedge between the US and Iran, the 1973 oil embargo, which
came out of Israel's war with Egypt, did the opposite -- it cemented
the US-Saudi relationship.
The core has always remained the same: The Saudis will guarantee oil,
the Americans will guarantee security. That core is changing
slightly, now that America has become energy self-sufficient in the
last two years, but like it or not, America is still policeman of the
world, but the core agree that the Saudis will guarantee oil and the
Americans will guarantee security is unchanged.
Therefore, it's believed that Donald Trump has asked the military to
provide a list of options of possible responses. These options would
include diplomacy (the United Nations Security Council), cyber attacks
(to cripple Iran's intelligence cabilities), and special forces or
missiles to proportionally attack Iran's oil production facilities.
Analysts I've heard seem unanimous in saying that there must be some
response, or else Iran will simply launch more and more attacks, until
there is a response.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over
100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/
Sources:
Related article:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Houthis,
China, India, Japan, South Korea,
Iran, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Khuzestan, Iraq, Anbar
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Asian countries concerned about oil price spike after attack on Saudi facilities
- Identifying Iran as the perpetrator
- Trump's response
****
**** Asian countries concerned about oil price spike after attack on Saudi facilities
****
This image provided by the US government and DigitalGlobe shows damage to the infrastructure at Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq oil processing facility in Buqyaq. (AP)
Sunday's attack on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure is raising
concerns in four Asian countries -- China, India, Japan and South
Korea -- that the world's oil markets have just taken a sharp turn for
the worst that will result in continuing worldwide oil disruption and
far higher prices.
The governments of China, India, Japan and South Korea have harsh
differences in many areas. China's criminal annexation of the South
China Sea has infuriated everyone. Japan and South Korea are having a
trading war that is becoming increasingly serious and hostile every
day. China and India have numerous border conflicts, and were at war
in the 1960s.
But the four countries are united in their concerns about the
possibility of oil prices spiking, which would hurt all of their
economies. In particular, all four are warning the US against a war
with Iran, which would hugely destabilize the global oil markets, and
send prices sky high.
Most analysts believe that Iran perpetrated the attack, gut there's a
broader problem, but no matter who the perpetrator was. The fact that
the attack occurred at all means that it won't be long before more
terrorists begin using drones to attack oil infrastructure anywhere
and, indeed, any targets anywhere, with permanently high oil prices.
****
**** Identifying Iran as the perpetrator
****
Sunday's attack on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure caused oil prices
to spike 12%, the largest one-day increase in history. However,
prices have retreated slightly, especially after Saudi's announcement
that most of the oil production would be restored within a few days.
If true, the Saudis are being lauded for the resilience they've built
in to the oil infrastructure.
It's pretty much universally believed that Iran was the perpetrator,
and that the attack was launched by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps
(IRGC). Iran denies responsibity for the attack, but it's generally
believed that Iran is responsible, and this is the sixth attack on
Saudi oil facilities in the last four months.
Iran's denials are being disregarded. The claim by the Iran-sponsored
Yemeni Houthis that they launched the attack from Yemen is being
disregarded, and is viewed as an attempt to shield Iran from blame.
According to several reports, all originating from US intelligence
sources, the coordinated attack was extremely sophisticated. US and
Saudi intelligence officials referenced have concluded that 12
low-flying cruise missiles were launched from Khuzestan in southern
Iran, and 5 drones were launched from Anbar province in western Iraq.
According to officials, if the missiles had come from Yemen, then
Saudi radar would have detected them. However, the Saudis were not
prepared to detect missiles coming in from the north.
Even if the Saudis recovered quickly from Sunday's attack, there are
concerns that Iran will simply make more attacks. It's believed that
Iran's strategy is to cause oil shortages and push the price of oil
above $100 a barrel, so that America will be forced to reduce the
sanctions preventing Iran from selling oil. It's believed that Iran
will avoid American targets, since doing so would cause an immediate
military response.
****
**** Trump's response
****
Therefore, analysts are saying that there MUST be a retaliatory
response, to force Iran to stop the attacks.
Few politicians or media people have the vaguest clue about Saudi
Arabia's history prior to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in October.
However, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US is very
deep.
Since the 1930s, America and Saudi Arabia have had a very specific
core understanding: That Saudi Arabia will guarantee to supply all the
oil that America and the West need, and, in return, America and the
West must guarantee the security of Saudi Arabia.
The exact details of the US-Saudi relationship have had to change from
time to time, based on international events such as Iran's revolution,
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the Iraq war, the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan, Obama's nuclear deal with Iran, Syria's civil war, the
rise of ISIS.
While the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis and subsequent Iranian behavior
drove a wedge between the US and Iran, the 1973 oil embargo, which
came out of Israel's war with Egypt, did the opposite -- it cemented
the US-Saudi relationship.
The core has always remained the same: The Saudis will guarantee oil,
the Americans will guarantee security. That core is changing
slightly, now that America has become energy self-sufficient in the
last two years, but like it or not, America is still policeman of the
world, but the core agree that the Saudis will guarantee oil and the
Americans will guarantee security is unchanged.
Therefore, it's believed that Donald Trump has asked the military to
provide a list of options of possible responses. These options would
include diplomacy (the United Nations Security Council), cyber attacks
(to cripple Iran's intelligence cabilities), and special forces or
missiles to proportionally attack Iran's oil production facilities.
Analysts I've heard seem unanimous in saying that there must be some
response, or else Iran will simply launch more and more attacks, until
there is a response.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over
100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/
Sources:
- Exclusive: Iran shot missiles from Khuzestan, drones from W. Iraq at Saudi oil facilities (Debka, 16-Sep-2019)
- Detailed satellite photos show extent of 'surgical' attack damage to Saudi Aramco oil facilities (CNBC, 17-Sep-2019)
- U.S. official says drone and missile attack on Saudi Arabia was launched from Iran (CBS News, 17-Sep-2019)
- Saudi Oil Shock Unites China With Asia Rivals Worried About War (Bloomberg, 17-Sep-2019)
- Trump administration weighing retaliatory action against Iran after Saudi oil attack (CNBC, 17-Sep-2019)
- Saudi oil plant attacks: 5 key questions on the impact on supply (Reuters, 16-Sep-2019)
Related article:
- Mideast tensions grow over Saudi drone attack and missile attacks on Idlib, Syria (15-Sep-2019)
- US-China trade war seriously disrupts world trade (16-Aug-2019)
- Japan-Korea relations deteriorate quickly after surprise trade standoff (03-Aug-2019)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Houthis,
China, India, Japan, South Korea,
Iran, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Khuzestan, Iraq, Anbar
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
