10-01-2019, 06:00 PM
** 01-Oct-2019 World View: The Future
I really have to laugh every time this happens. This is supposed to
be a "generational theory" forum, and yet not a single person in this
forum considers generational theory to be valid --- that is, not a
single person except one, of course, ME. It's bizarrely ironic that
I'm the only person in this generational theory forum that considers
generational theory to be valid.
At any rate, generational theory makes it clear that WW III is
overdue, but you don't need generational theory to see that. There
were two world wars in the last century, plus massive additional wars
in Asia, the Mideast, Africa, and pretty much in every region of the
world. Furthermore, there have been massive wars in every continent,
in every nation, in every region of the world in every century for
millennia. There is absolutely no reason why this century should be
any different, and several reasons why this century should be worse.
I have no idea what you mean by "mass suicide." No army goes to war
thinking that they're going to lose. To the contrary, they believe
(or they've been convinced) quite delusionally that they'll win
quickly. I've written quite a bit on this subject. An army launches
a war with public cheering and a feeling of euphoria, because finally
the army will quickly right numerous wrongs that the society has been
suffering at the hands of the enemy, and victory will be quick and
painless. Certainly the Chinese feel that way about Japan and Taiwan,
as long as their massive missile deployment can keep the US at bay.
Really, this is just so completely ridiculous. People like you claim
that the world is coming to an end because of "climate change." But
believe that a world war is coming? Oh no, that'll never happen.
That's impossible. So believe in the tooth fairy, or whatever you
want, but WW III is coming.
The Singularity has nothing to do with AI? Lol! "Sentience" is a
completely meaningless term, used by people who don't understand the
rapid ongoing advances in the world of AI. Just look at the advances
in deep learning, robotics, reasoning, and autonomous self-driving
vehicles, and anyone can see that the Singularity is coming soon.
If an army of AI robots kills you and everyone around you, then you'll
be just as dead whether the AI robots were "sentient" or not.
I found an article that discusses some recent advances in AI,
which you may find interesting:
** The 8 Incredible Advances In Artificial Intelligence To Expect
** https://chatbotnewsdaily.com/the-8-incre...51474189e2
I recently re-posted an article that I wrote in 2005 on the
Singularity:
** Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...151228.htm
In that article, I didn't mention "sentience," which is a completely
meaningless term outside of a religious context.
However, what I discussed at length in the article is the subject of
creativity. I wanted to address the objection that "computers can do
what they're programmed to do, but they can't be creative, and do what
they aren't programmed to do." So I wrote a lot about how computers
can be even more creative than humans.
So, go back into your bubble and worry about carbon emissions, lean
back and wait to burn up within 11 years. Meanwhile, those of us in
the real world will try to make plans for dealing with WW III and the
Singularity, which of course means that we'll probably burn up in far
less than 11 years.
(09-30-2019, 09:27 AM)David Horn Wrote: > 2. [2020s: World War III] The chance of a total war, and that's
> what you postulate, is slim to none. Even the insane understand
> mass suicide.
I really have to laugh every time this happens. This is supposed to
be a "generational theory" forum, and yet not a single person in this
forum considers generational theory to be valid --- that is, not a
single person except one, of course, ME. It's bizarrely ironic that
I'm the only person in this generational theory forum that considers
generational theory to be valid.
At any rate, generational theory makes it clear that WW III is
overdue, but you don't need generational theory to see that. There
were two world wars in the last century, plus massive additional wars
in Asia, the Mideast, Africa, and pretty much in every region of the
world. Furthermore, there have been massive wars in every continent,
in every nation, in every region of the world in every century for
millennia. There is absolutely no reason why this century should be
any different, and several reasons why this century should be worse.
I have no idea what you mean by "mass suicide." No army goes to war
thinking that they're going to lose. To the contrary, they believe
(or they've been convinced) quite delusionally that they'll win
quickly. I've written quite a bit on this subject. An army launches
a war with public cheering and a feeling of euphoria, because finally
the army will quickly right numerous wrongs that the society has been
suffering at the hands of the enemy, and victory will be quick and
painless. Certainly the Chinese feel that way about Japan and Taiwan,
as long as their massive missile deployment can keep the US at bay.
Really, this is just so completely ridiculous. People like you claim
that the world is coming to an end because of "climate change." But
believe that a world war is coming? Oh no, that'll never happen.
That's impossible. So believe in the tooth fairy, or whatever you
want, but WW III is coming.
(09-30-2019, 09:27 AM)David Horn Wrote: > 4. [2030s: Singularity] Again, this is wildly optimistic (or
> pessimistic, depending on your bent). We ae no where near this
> possibility today, so 11 years is an unobtainable goal.
> You fundamentally misconstrue the Singularity with AI. The two
> are completely different. The Singularity implies sentience,
> which is far beyond AI. Yes, AI will be handling many tasks that
> used to be assigned to humans in the 2030s, but decision making
> isn't one of them.
The Singularity has nothing to do with AI? Lol! "Sentience" is a
completely meaningless term, used by people who don't understand the
rapid ongoing advances in the world of AI. Just look at the advances
in deep learning, robotics, reasoning, and autonomous self-driving
vehicles, and anyone can see that the Singularity is coming soon.
If an army of AI robots kills you and everyone around you, then you'll
be just as dead whether the AI robots were "sentient" or not.
I found an article that discusses some recent advances in AI,
which you may find interesting:
** The 8 Incredible Advances In Artificial Intelligence To Expect
** https://chatbotnewsdaily.com/the-8-incre...51474189e2
I recently re-posted an article that I wrote in 2005 on the
Singularity:
** Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...151228.htm
In that article, I didn't mention "sentience," which is a completely
meaningless term outside of a religious context.
However, what I discussed at length in the article is the subject of
creativity. I wanted to address the objection that "computers can do
what they're programmed to do, but they can't be creative, and do what
they aren't programmed to do." So I wrote a lot about how computers
can be even more creative than humans.
So, go back into your bubble and worry about carbon emissions, lean
back and wait to burn up within 11 years. Meanwhile, those of us in
the real world will try to make plans for dealing with WW III and the
Singularity, which of course means that we'll probably burn up in far
less than 11 years.
