10-29-2019, 08:24 PM
** 29-Oct-2019 World View: Frankenstein's Monster and the Singularity
Lol! That's a great litmus test, but it looks like a recipe for
creating a new Frankenstein's monster, and I doubt that any NFL teams
would be willing to allow Frankenstein's monster on their team (or on
their opponents' teams).
As you probably know, the Turing Test was devised by Alan Turing years
ago. You ask a computer questions and get answers, and the test is
whether you can tell whether the answers you're getting are from a
human being or computer. If you can't tell the difference, then the
computer is intelligent.
I suspect that we've already surpassed the Turing Test or, if not,
then we're very close -- and in fact it was satisfied years ago by IBM
Watson's Jeopardy challenge.
A test that I used to propose was that a computer would be intelligent
if it could drive a bus down New York's Fifth Avenue, follow all the
traffic laws, pick up and drop off passengers, make change and answer
their questions. Given the recent advances in autonomous self-driven
cars, I believe that this test could be satisfied today.
The test that you're proposing is more difficult because you want the
computer to be able to run around and play football. The "run around"
part is still a few years off. But today we have plenty of examples
of automated manufacturing. A computer could use a 3-d printer to
create a humanoid, and install motors to move the feet, hands and
fingers. Then it could install a computer into the humanoid's head,
with the appropriate software, and you've got your Frankenstein's
monster. I think that this would be possible within five years or so.
None of these tests is really enough to say that the Singularity has
occurred, since they all have narrowly defined functionality.
The Singularity will truly have been reached when your computerized
humanoid can walk around and do everything that a human can do -- walk
into a grocery store and buy groceries, walk into a clothing store and
buy clothing, go into a bowling alley and bowl, perform CPR, have sex
with a human, and so forth. If the Singularity occurs in 2030, then
this kind of functionality should be possible within a few years after
that.
John Wrote:> ** 29-Oct-2019 World View: Exponential
> increases in computing power
> Computing power will continue to grow exponentially, and the
> Singularity is coming soon.
Higgenbotham Wrote:> Here's my litmus test for when we can say AI has surpassed human
> intelligence:
> An AI team clones a human
> An AI surgical team replaces the brain in the cloned human with an
> artificial brain the AI team has built
> The cloned human then quarterbacks an NFL team to a Super Bowl
> victory
Lol! That's a great litmus test, but it looks like a recipe for
creating a new Frankenstein's monster, and I doubt that any NFL teams
would be willing to allow Frankenstein's monster on their team (or on
their opponents' teams).
As you probably know, the Turing Test was devised by Alan Turing years
ago. You ask a computer questions and get answers, and the test is
whether you can tell whether the answers you're getting are from a
human being or computer. If you can't tell the difference, then the
computer is intelligent.
I suspect that we've already surpassed the Turing Test or, if not,
then we're very close -- and in fact it was satisfied years ago by IBM
Watson's Jeopardy challenge.
A test that I used to propose was that a computer would be intelligent
if it could drive a bus down New York's Fifth Avenue, follow all the
traffic laws, pick up and drop off passengers, make change and answer
their questions. Given the recent advances in autonomous self-driven
cars, I believe that this test could be satisfied today.
The test that you're proposing is more difficult because you want the
computer to be able to run around and play football. The "run around"
part is still a few years off. But today we have plenty of examples
of automated manufacturing. A computer could use a 3-d printer to
create a humanoid, and install motors to move the feet, hands and
fingers. Then it could install a computer into the humanoid's head,
with the appropriate software, and you've got your Frankenstein's
monster. I think that this would be possible within five years or so.
None of these tests is really enough to say that the Singularity has
occurred, since they all have narrowly defined functionality.
The Singularity will truly have been reached when your computerized
humanoid can walk around and do everything that a human can do -- walk
into a grocery store and buy groceries, walk into a clothing store and
buy clothing, go into a bowling alley and bowl, perform CPR, have sex
with a human, and so forth. If the Singularity occurs in 2030, then
this kind of functionality should be possible within a few years after
that.
