12-01-2019, 12:33 AM
Based on how you explained them, here would be Trump's standing at this point in the campaign
1. Republicans not only lost seats, but the entire House was flipped. This is a clear Democratic point.
2. Especially given that various states have cancelled their primaries, I don't see Bill Weld or Joe Walsh securing one-third of the delegates, let alone with both of them in the race. This is a point for Trump.
3. Clearly in favor of Trump.
4. Still up in the air as a third party could rise or fizzle by Election Day.
5/6. Both of these two are tentatively in Trump's favor, although the economy could always change.
7. People will always disagree on certain policies, but a president benefits from doing so as it gives them a reputation of being an efficient governor. Outside of executive actions, the only major legislative change has been the tax cut, although Congress passing USMCA or an infrastructure bill puts this key more firmly in Trump's favor. For now, I think it would be a slight Democratic key, but if you were to count things Trump has done on his own it's another for him. If there's anything Trump is effective at, it's being a promoter, so things like the tariffs or emergency funding may come off as successes.
8. Nothing like the '60s unrest or Los Angeles/Ferguson riots. This is a key for Trump.
9. Impeachment hearings prior to an election is never a good look, and gives another key to the Democrats.
10. No major changes abroad or military defeats from what I can tell, although an ISIS resurgence wouldn't go over well. Thankfully for the world, that hasn't happened, and also means it's a Trump key.
11. Baghdadi being killed probably counts as a foreign success, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's a common subject at his 2020 rallies, so I imagine this is another Trump key. Another accomplishment like a trade deal with China or limiting the NK nuclear program would solidify it, similar to the position of key #7.
12. Charisma is subjective, for this key I'm using whether or not the incumbent candidate has a personal approval rating of over 50% or has served in the military (hence "national hero" wording). Trump has achieved neither so this is a Democratic key.
13. Impossible to tell since the nominee has not been determined. Unlike Biden or Warren, Bernie Sanders has a net positive approval rating of over 50% while Buttigieg has the national service thing going. For this key to flip it would have to be either of those two, but it's all still up in the air with this one.
That brings us to a score of 7-4 in favor of Trump, with a strong third party candidacy or the Democratic nominee yet to be determined, and the economy always a wild card. Counting al-Baghdadi's death as a success while downplaying the tax cuts/executive orders was my way of balancing it because I'm not sure how much they especially matter or demonstrate leadership to the American people. Either way, based on this system Trump is in a better position than it may seem.
1. Republicans not only lost seats, but the entire House was flipped. This is a clear Democratic point.
2. Especially given that various states have cancelled their primaries, I don't see Bill Weld or Joe Walsh securing one-third of the delegates, let alone with both of them in the race. This is a point for Trump.
3. Clearly in favor of Trump.
4. Still up in the air as a third party could rise or fizzle by Election Day.
5/6. Both of these two are tentatively in Trump's favor, although the economy could always change.
7. People will always disagree on certain policies, but a president benefits from doing so as it gives them a reputation of being an efficient governor. Outside of executive actions, the only major legislative change has been the tax cut, although Congress passing USMCA or an infrastructure bill puts this key more firmly in Trump's favor. For now, I think it would be a slight Democratic key, but if you were to count things Trump has done on his own it's another for him. If there's anything Trump is effective at, it's being a promoter, so things like the tariffs or emergency funding may come off as successes.
8. Nothing like the '60s unrest or Los Angeles/Ferguson riots. This is a key for Trump.
9. Impeachment hearings prior to an election is never a good look, and gives another key to the Democrats.
10. No major changes abroad or military defeats from what I can tell, although an ISIS resurgence wouldn't go over well. Thankfully for the world, that hasn't happened, and also means it's a Trump key.
11. Baghdadi being killed probably counts as a foreign success, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's a common subject at his 2020 rallies, so I imagine this is another Trump key. Another accomplishment like a trade deal with China or limiting the NK nuclear program would solidify it, similar to the position of key #7.
12. Charisma is subjective, for this key I'm using whether or not the incumbent candidate has a personal approval rating of over 50% or has served in the military (hence "national hero" wording). Trump has achieved neither so this is a Democratic key.
13. Impossible to tell since the nominee has not been determined. Unlike Biden or Warren, Bernie Sanders has a net positive approval rating of over 50% while Buttigieg has the national service thing going. For this key to flip it would have to be either of those two, but it's all still up in the air with this one.
That brings us to a score of 7-4 in favor of Trump, with a strong third party candidacy or the Democratic nominee yet to be determined, and the economy always a wild card. Counting al-Baghdadi's death as a success while downplaying the tax cuts/executive orders was my way of balancing it because I'm not sure how much they especially matter or demonstrate leadership to the American people. Either way, based on this system Trump is in a better position than it may seem.