12-14-2019, 08:30 PM
*** 15-Dec-19 World View -- US envoy visits S. Korea to prepare for North Korea 12/31 threat
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** North Korea announces new 'crucial test' to bolster its 'nuclear deterrent'
****
![[Image: g191214b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g191214b.jpg)
A public TV screen Monday in Tokyo shows North Korea's Sohae long-range rocket launch site (AP)
North Korea on Saturday announced that it conducted another "crucial
test" which "will be applied to further bolstering up the reliable
strategic nuclear deterrent of the Democratic People’s Republic of
Korea." This was the second test in the space of a week. The North
Koreans didn't announce the nature of the tests, but it's believed
that they were tests of an advanced rocket engine of a type that can
be used in ballistic missiles.
North Korea has in recent weeks become increasingly belligerent,
conducting a series of short-range missile tests and using increasingly
belligerent language. The North Koreans have set a deadline of the
end of the year for the US to agree to the removal of some or all
of the US or UN sanctions unilaterally, without any serious
denuclearization steps by the North Koreans.
Not surprisingly, North Korea's rhetoric toward Japan has been
especially hostile. Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe responded to a
recent missile test by saying, "North Korea’s repeated launches of
ballistic missiles are a serious defiance to not only our country but
also the international community." North Korea's state media
responded by denouncing Japan's prime minister Abe as "an underwit,"
"the most stupid man ever known in history," and a "perfect imbecile."
On the other hand, Donald Trump last week once again referred to Kim
Jong-un as "rocket man," saying that "he likes sending rockets up,"
but "in the meantime, we still have peace." A North Korean official
said, "This naturally indicates that Trump is an old man bereft of
patience. As he is such a heedless and erratic old man, the time when
we can not but call him a 'dotard' again may come."
****
**** US envoy Stephen Biegun arrives in South Korea on Sunday
****
U.S. special envoy for North Korea Stephen Biegun will arrive in
Seoul on Sunday to meet with South Korean officials and devise
a joint US-South Korea strategy for responding to North Korea's
end of year threat.
For the past two years, since the talks between North Korea's child
dictator Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump began with a "charm offensive,"
North Korea has not tested any nuclear weapons or long-range ballistic
missiles. However, it has made numerous tests of things like
short-range missiles, which are a threat to South Korea and Japan.
North Korea originally promised that it would denuclearize, in return
for agreement by the US to end the UN and US sanctions. Kim Jong-un
has used a variety of artifices to trick Trump into removing the
sanctions unilaterally, but has not succeeded. These tricks worked
with president George Bush in 2008, which was a major humiliation to
the US. But Trump has refused to fall for them.
Now, North Korea has set a deadline of the end of this year for the
sanctions to be lifted. After two years of charm offensive, but being
unable to get the sanctions lifted, the North Koreans now say that
they have "nothing to lose" in taking "a new path." They have not
said what the new path is, but it's believed that it would be a
resumption of nuclear weapon and ballistic missile tests.
It seems likely that the "new path" will be devised to take advantage
of scheduled elections in America and South Korea, in November and
April respectively, to apply maximum political pressure on Donald
Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in. For example, the North
Koreans might simply threaten to begin nuclear weapons testing again
unless some or all of the sanctions are lifted.
According to reports, US envoy Stephen Biegun will discuss with South
Korean officials a strategy to get the US-North Korea talks started
again, in order to avoid a new regional crisis. According to one
South Korean official, "In any case, Biegun would try to give an
impression that they won’t be manipulated by the North Koreans, while
making clear that they want to keep talking."
****
**** China's confused response to the North Korean threat
****
Normally, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) takes a highly
contemptuous anti-American position on almost any subject, but
that's not the case with the current situation. The Chinese
are as unhappy with the North Koreans as they are with
the Americans.
For centuries, Korea has had a vassal or tributary relationship with
China. This means that Korea paid China a great deal of money,
usually gold and slaves, in return for guarantees of defense from
outsiders (i.e., Japan). Although China does not directly govern the
vassal, China expects the vassal to do as it's told, and will not
hesitate to punish a vassal that disobeys.
North Korea today pays tribute to China not in the form of gold and
slaves, but in the form of massive amounts of coal and "workers," both
of which are also used to provide financial aid to North Korea.
Relations between China and North Korea took a hostile turn in October
2006, when North Korea began testing nuclear weapons. The vassal
North Korea did not do as it was told, and China punished its vassal
by agreeing to United Nations sanctions targeting North Korea.
However, China cannot punish North Korea too severely. If China tries
to starve North Korea, the result could be a massive refugee flow from
North Korea, across the Yalu River, into northeast China, which would
be an economic disaster for China.
The reason that China does not want North Korea testing nuclear
weapons is simply because such tests provide the US with an excuse to
increase its military presence in the area.
The Chinese were particularly infuriated in 2016 when North Korean
tests provoked South Korea to reverse a previous policy and agree to
deploy the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD), supplied by the
United States military, to protect itself from North Korean missile
attacks. The THAAD does not do a very good job at protecting South
Korea from North Korean short-range missiles. But what the THAAD
system does, through its sophisticated long-range "over the horizon"
radar capabilities, is provide early warning to the American military
of a missile attack from China.
What China would like is for America to reduce its military presence
in the region, which a North Korean missile test would certainly
make less likely. Therefore, the Chinese are very unhappy with
North Korea's threats.
What the Chinese say they would like is for the North Koreans, the
South Koreans and the US to talk, and for everything to settle down,
so that American forces can start withdrawing from the region. That's
a nice Chinese dream, but it's very unlikely to occur.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
South Korea, Moon Jae-in, Japan, Shinzo Abe,
Stephen Biegun, China, Chinese Communist Party, CCP,
Terminal High Altitude Air Defense, THAAD
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- North Korea announces new 'crucial test' to bolster its 'nuclear deterrent'
- US envoy Stephen Biegun arrives in South Korea on Sunday
- China's confused response to the North Korean threat
****
**** North Korea announces new 'crucial test' to bolster its 'nuclear deterrent'
****
A public TV screen Monday in Tokyo shows North Korea's Sohae long-range rocket launch site (AP)
North Korea on Saturday announced that it conducted another "crucial
test" which "will be applied to further bolstering up the reliable
strategic nuclear deterrent of the Democratic People’s Republic of
Korea." This was the second test in the space of a week. The North
Koreans didn't announce the nature of the tests, but it's believed
that they were tests of an advanced rocket engine of a type that can
be used in ballistic missiles.
North Korea has in recent weeks become increasingly belligerent,
conducting a series of short-range missile tests and using increasingly
belligerent language. The North Koreans have set a deadline of the
end of the year for the US to agree to the removal of some or all
of the US or UN sanctions unilaterally, without any serious
denuclearization steps by the North Koreans.
Not surprisingly, North Korea's rhetoric toward Japan has been
especially hostile. Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe responded to a
recent missile test by saying, "North Korea’s repeated launches of
ballistic missiles are a serious defiance to not only our country but
also the international community." North Korea's state media
responded by denouncing Japan's prime minister Abe as "an underwit,"
"the most stupid man ever known in history," and a "perfect imbecile."
On the other hand, Donald Trump last week once again referred to Kim
Jong-un as "rocket man," saying that "he likes sending rockets up,"
but "in the meantime, we still have peace." A North Korean official
said, "This naturally indicates that Trump is an old man bereft of
patience. As he is such a heedless and erratic old man, the time when
we can not but call him a 'dotard' again may come."
****
**** US envoy Stephen Biegun arrives in South Korea on Sunday
****
U.S. special envoy for North Korea Stephen Biegun will arrive in
Seoul on Sunday to meet with South Korean officials and devise
a joint US-South Korea strategy for responding to North Korea's
end of year threat.
For the past two years, since the talks between North Korea's child
dictator Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump began with a "charm offensive,"
North Korea has not tested any nuclear weapons or long-range ballistic
missiles. However, it has made numerous tests of things like
short-range missiles, which are a threat to South Korea and Japan.
North Korea originally promised that it would denuclearize, in return
for agreement by the US to end the UN and US sanctions. Kim Jong-un
has used a variety of artifices to trick Trump into removing the
sanctions unilaterally, but has not succeeded. These tricks worked
with president George Bush in 2008, which was a major humiliation to
the US. But Trump has refused to fall for them.
Now, North Korea has set a deadline of the end of this year for the
sanctions to be lifted. After two years of charm offensive, but being
unable to get the sanctions lifted, the North Koreans now say that
they have "nothing to lose" in taking "a new path." They have not
said what the new path is, but it's believed that it would be a
resumption of nuclear weapon and ballistic missile tests.
It seems likely that the "new path" will be devised to take advantage
of scheduled elections in America and South Korea, in November and
April respectively, to apply maximum political pressure on Donald
Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in. For example, the North
Koreans might simply threaten to begin nuclear weapons testing again
unless some or all of the sanctions are lifted.
According to reports, US envoy Stephen Biegun will discuss with South
Korean officials a strategy to get the US-North Korea talks started
again, in order to avoid a new regional crisis. According to one
South Korean official, "In any case, Biegun would try to give an
impression that they won’t be manipulated by the North Koreans, while
making clear that they want to keep talking."
****
**** China's confused response to the North Korean threat
****
Normally, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) takes a highly
contemptuous anti-American position on almost any subject, but
that's not the case with the current situation. The Chinese
are as unhappy with the North Koreans as they are with
the Americans.
For centuries, Korea has had a vassal or tributary relationship with
China. This means that Korea paid China a great deal of money,
usually gold and slaves, in return for guarantees of defense from
outsiders (i.e., Japan). Although China does not directly govern the
vassal, China expects the vassal to do as it's told, and will not
hesitate to punish a vassal that disobeys.
North Korea today pays tribute to China not in the form of gold and
slaves, but in the form of massive amounts of coal and "workers," both
of which are also used to provide financial aid to North Korea.
Relations between China and North Korea took a hostile turn in October
2006, when North Korea began testing nuclear weapons. The vassal
North Korea did not do as it was told, and China punished its vassal
by agreeing to United Nations sanctions targeting North Korea.
However, China cannot punish North Korea too severely. If China tries
to starve North Korea, the result could be a massive refugee flow from
North Korea, across the Yalu River, into northeast China, which would
be an economic disaster for China.
The reason that China does not want North Korea testing nuclear
weapons is simply because such tests provide the US with an excuse to
increase its military presence in the area.
The Chinese were particularly infuriated in 2016 when North Korean
tests provoked South Korea to reverse a previous policy and agree to
deploy the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD), supplied by the
United States military, to protect itself from North Korean missile
attacks. The THAAD does not do a very good job at protecting South
Korea from North Korean short-range missiles. But what the THAAD
system does, through its sophisticated long-range "over the horizon"
radar capabilities, is provide early warning to the American military
of a missile attack from China.
What China would like is for America to reduce its military presence
in the region, which a North Korean missile test would certainly
make less likely. Therefore, the Chinese are very unhappy with
North Korea's threats.
What the Chinese say they would like is for the North Koreans, the
South Koreans and the US to talk, and for everything to settle down,
so that American forces can start withdrawing from the region. That's
a nice Chinese dream, but it's very unlikely to occur.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/
Sources:
- North Korea says it conducted test to bolster its “strategic nuclear deterrent” (NKNews, 14-Dec-2019)
- U.S. envoy to visit Seoul as deadline looms for stalled North Korea talks (Reuters, 13-Dec-2019)
- U.S. warns North Korea against 'ill-advised behavior' as deadline looms (Reuters, 12-Dec-2019)
- As its deadline for ‘bold decision’ from US looms, North Korea is ramping up the rhetoric again (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 8-Dec-2019)
- North Korea fires two ‘unidentified projectiles’ on Thanksgiving as end-of-year deadline looms (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 28-Nov-2019)
- U.S. and North Korea trade barbs, but both keeping options open as deadline looms (Japan Times, 10-Dec-2019)
- North Korea / The looming deadline in nuclear talks: Kim’s three options before the year’s end (NK News, 29-Nov-2019)
- US, North Korea on collision course as New Year deadline looms (Business Times Singapore, AFP, 10-Dec-2019)
- Action needed as North Korea deadline looms (Global Times, 10-Dec-2019)
- US envoy for DPRK to visit ROK, Japan amid tension (China Daily, 14-Dec-2019)
- North Korea has “nothing to lose,” top official warns Trump as tensions mount (NK News, 9-Dec-2019)
- South Korea to 'speak out' on NK test at UNSC (Korea Times, 11-Dec-2019)
- Firms withdraw from China on worsening business conditions (Korea Times, 9-Dec-2019)
Related Articles:
- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive' (29-Apr-2019)
- North Korea 'Charm Offensive' appears to have run its course (17-Nov-2018)
- North Korea plays hardball to get sanctions lifted (12-Nov-2018)
- China, Russia demand that that some North Korea sanctions be lifted (29-Sep-2018)
- US imposes new North Korea sanctions on Chinese and Russian shipping companies (17-Aug-2018)
- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
South Korea, Moon Jae-in, Japan, Shinzo Abe,
Stephen Biegun, China, Chinese Communist Party, CCP,
Terminal High Altitude Air Defense, THAAD
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
