12-18-2019, 10:41 PM
*** 19-Dec-19 World View -- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border
****
![[Image: g191218b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g191218b.jpg)
Map of Syria showing areas of control by Syria, Turkey and Kurds (New Humanitarian)
The United Nations is condemning the escalated bombing by Syrian and
Russian warplanes of civilian targets in Syria's northwest province,
Idlib.
The bombing has substantially intensified since the beginning of
November. Bashar al-Assad's warplanes are specially targeting
hospitals, schools, residential neighborhoods and marketplaces in
order to kill as many women and children as possible, whom he
considers to be cockroaches to be exterminated. Al-Assad is using
barrel bombs, which are large barrels filled with explosives, metal,
and sometimes chlorine gas, ammonia and phosphorous.
According to Turkey's media, about 110,000 civilians have been
forced to leave their homes, as 12,000 of them are headed for
Turkey's border, presumably with the intention of crossing.
The numbers are staggering. A million Syrian refugees have come to
Europe, mostly by crossing through Turkey. Turkey itself hosts 3.7
million Syrians who fled al-Assad's violence in the past. Idlib is
home to 2.4 million residents, but they've been augmented by 1.1
million additional Syrians who arrived in Idlib to escape al-Assad's
violence in earlier target sites like Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa. Of
the 3.5 million civilians in Idlib, it's estimated that about 70,000
of them are members of al-Qaeda linked al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra
(al-Nusra Front) later renamed Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS, and then
renamed again to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
For two years, al-Assad has repeatedly said that he considers all 3.5
million residents of Idlib to be terrorists, and that he plans to take
control of Idlib, presumably exterminating many or all of those 3.5
million "terrorists." This would create a huge humanitarian crisis,
with hundreds of thousands more refugees pouring across the border
into Turkey. Many of them would then go on to attempt to cross into
Europe.
With the sharp escalation in bombing of Idlib by Syrian and Russian
warplanes since the beginning of November, it appears that a full
scale assault is likely to begin soon.
****
**** The complex ménage à trois relationship - Syria, Russia, Turkey - under stress
****
Syria's Idlib province has been out of the news for several months
now, since the world has been focused on the REALLY important stuff
like Brexit and impeachment.
But Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and his Russian puppetmaster
Vladimir Putin have been using the time and their respective warplanes
for increasing attacks on civilians in Idlib province, including
missile attacks on markets, hospitals and schools.
A full-scale attack on Idlib has been expected for a couple of years,
but apparently al-Assad has been held back by Russia as part of the
complex ménage à trois relationship connecting Syria, Russia
and Turkey.
Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, the objective of
Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad is the genocide and ethnic cleansing of
all his Sunni Arab political enemies. His father Hafez al-Assad,
fought an extremely vicious and bloody ethnic civil war with that
ethnic group in the 1980s, and now al-Assad wants to finish the job
with his own "final solution." (See "1-Dec-18 World View -- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria"
)
So al-Assad's objective in Idlib is to do the same kinds of things
that he's previously done in in other regions like Aleppo, Ghouta and
Daraa, where he used barrel bombs on hospitals, schools, marketplaces
and residential neighborhoods, along with chlorine gas and Sarin gas,
in order to clean out and exterminate the three million Sunni Arabs in
Idlib, whom he considers worse than cockroaches.
Russia's objective is to keep control of its two military bases in
Syria -- the Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase. Russia lost all
its Mediterranean military bases in the 1990s when the Soviet Union
collapsed, and now Russia desperately want to keep these two in Syria.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin obtained control of these two
military bases in 2015 in return for saving al-Assad from defeat
in 2015, when his army was close to collapse.
Russia also wants to remain friendly with Turkey, because Putin wants
to pull Turkey away from Europe and Nato. So Putin has held al-Assad
back from an all-out attack on Idlib, because that would send millions
of refugees across the border into Turkey.
Turkey's objective is to prevent a humanitarian disaster in Idlib that
would send those millions of refugees across the border. Turkey is
already hosting 3.6 million refugees that fled al-Assad's previous
violence in other regions. Furthermore, in eastern Syria,
Turkey is well on its way to setting up a buffer zone in northern
Syria along the border with Turkey. Turkey would like to expel
all Kurds from that buffer zone, and replace them with some two
million Syrian refugees that Turkey is currently hosting.
****
**** Assad threatens Turkey
****
So now, getting back to al-Assad, he has frequently stated the
intention of exterminating what he views are three million cockroaches
in Idlib province, and doesn't care about any humanitarian disaster.
In August, al-Assad visited the Syrian army troops in Idlib, and
accused Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan of being a thief,
backed by his American master, who steals wheat, petroleum, factories
and land from Syria. He again made clear his intention of winning
"the Battle of Idlib":
<QUOTE>"What Syria has gone through during these nine years
can be likened to the chapters of a play prepared and directed and
executed by one side, but in each chapter it would have a
different main character or actor, and the main actor of the
current stage is Erdogan, who was the most successful in being a
pawn in the hands of his American master and in being a thief who
steals wheat, petroleum, and factories, and now he is trying to
steal land. ...
The Idlib front is very important, particularly since it was an
advanced outpost for them, while the battle was in the east, which
aimed at scattering the army, which is why we have always said
that the conclusion of the battle in Idlib is the basis for ending
chaos and terrorism across Syria."<END QUOTE>
This suggests that al-Assad's planned assault on Idlib could
end up being a conflict between Syria and Turkey.
Vladimir Putin, the third member of the ménage à trois, will have to
figure out how to prevent a war from breaking out if Russia is to
maintain its influence with both.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Kurds, Bashar al-Assad, Alawites, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase,
Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, Idlib,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Liberation of the Levant Organization,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border
- The complex ménage à trois relationship - Syria, Russia, Turkey - under stress
- Assad threatens Turkey
****
**** Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border
****
Map of Syria showing areas of control by Syria, Turkey and Kurds (New Humanitarian)
The United Nations is condemning the escalated bombing by Syrian and
Russian warplanes of civilian targets in Syria's northwest province,
Idlib.
The bombing has substantially intensified since the beginning of
November. Bashar al-Assad's warplanes are specially targeting
hospitals, schools, residential neighborhoods and marketplaces in
order to kill as many women and children as possible, whom he
considers to be cockroaches to be exterminated. Al-Assad is using
barrel bombs, which are large barrels filled with explosives, metal,
and sometimes chlorine gas, ammonia and phosphorous.
According to Turkey's media, about 110,000 civilians have been
forced to leave their homes, as 12,000 of them are headed for
Turkey's border, presumably with the intention of crossing.
The numbers are staggering. A million Syrian refugees have come to
Europe, mostly by crossing through Turkey. Turkey itself hosts 3.7
million Syrians who fled al-Assad's violence in the past. Idlib is
home to 2.4 million residents, but they've been augmented by 1.1
million additional Syrians who arrived in Idlib to escape al-Assad's
violence in earlier target sites like Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa. Of
the 3.5 million civilians in Idlib, it's estimated that about 70,000
of them are members of al-Qaeda linked al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra
(al-Nusra Front) later renamed Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS, and then
renamed again to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
For two years, al-Assad has repeatedly said that he considers all 3.5
million residents of Idlib to be terrorists, and that he plans to take
control of Idlib, presumably exterminating many or all of those 3.5
million "terrorists." This would create a huge humanitarian crisis,
with hundreds of thousands more refugees pouring across the border
into Turkey. Many of them would then go on to attempt to cross into
Europe.
With the sharp escalation in bombing of Idlib by Syrian and Russian
warplanes since the beginning of November, it appears that a full
scale assault is likely to begin soon.
****
**** The complex ménage à trois relationship - Syria, Russia, Turkey - under stress
****
Syria's Idlib province has been out of the news for several months
now, since the world has been focused on the REALLY important stuff
like Brexit and impeachment.
But Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and his Russian puppetmaster
Vladimir Putin have been using the time and their respective warplanes
for increasing attacks on civilians in Idlib province, including
missile attacks on markets, hospitals and schools.
A full-scale attack on Idlib has been expected for a couple of years,
but apparently al-Assad has been held back by Russia as part of the
complex ménage à trois relationship connecting Syria, Russia
and Turkey.
Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, the objective of
Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad is the genocide and ethnic cleansing of
all his Sunni Arab political enemies. His father Hafez al-Assad,
fought an extremely vicious and bloody ethnic civil war with that
ethnic group in the 1980s, and now al-Assad wants to finish the job
with his own "final solution." (See "1-Dec-18 World View -- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria"
)
So al-Assad's objective in Idlib is to do the same kinds of things
that he's previously done in in other regions like Aleppo, Ghouta and
Daraa, where he used barrel bombs on hospitals, schools, marketplaces
and residential neighborhoods, along with chlorine gas and Sarin gas,
in order to clean out and exterminate the three million Sunni Arabs in
Idlib, whom he considers worse than cockroaches.
Russia's objective is to keep control of its two military bases in
Syria -- the Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase. Russia lost all
its Mediterranean military bases in the 1990s when the Soviet Union
collapsed, and now Russia desperately want to keep these two in Syria.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin obtained control of these two
military bases in 2015 in return for saving al-Assad from defeat
in 2015, when his army was close to collapse.
Russia also wants to remain friendly with Turkey, because Putin wants
to pull Turkey away from Europe and Nato. So Putin has held al-Assad
back from an all-out attack on Idlib, because that would send millions
of refugees across the border into Turkey.
Turkey's objective is to prevent a humanitarian disaster in Idlib that
would send those millions of refugees across the border. Turkey is
already hosting 3.6 million refugees that fled al-Assad's previous
violence in other regions. Furthermore, in eastern Syria,
Turkey is well on its way to setting up a buffer zone in northern
Syria along the border with Turkey. Turkey would like to expel
all Kurds from that buffer zone, and replace them with some two
million Syrian refugees that Turkey is currently hosting.
****
**** Assad threatens Turkey
****
So now, getting back to al-Assad, he has frequently stated the
intention of exterminating what he views are three million cockroaches
in Idlib province, and doesn't care about any humanitarian disaster.
In August, al-Assad visited the Syrian army troops in Idlib, and
accused Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan of being a thief,
backed by his American master, who steals wheat, petroleum, factories
and land from Syria. He again made clear his intention of winning
"the Battle of Idlib":
<QUOTE>"What Syria has gone through during these nine years
can be likened to the chapters of a play prepared and directed and
executed by one side, but in each chapter it would have a
different main character or actor, and the main actor of the
current stage is Erdogan, who was the most successful in being a
pawn in the hands of his American master and in being a thief who
steals wheat, petroleum, and factories, and now he is trying to
steal land. ...
The Idlib front is very important, particularly since it was an
advanced outpost for them, while the battle was in the east, which
aimed at scattering the army, which is why we have always said
that the conclusion of the battle in Idlib is the basis for ending
chaos and terrorism across Syria."<END QUOTE>
This suggests that al-Assad's planned assault on Idlib could
end up being a conflict between Syria and Turkey.
Vladimir Putin, the third member of the ménage à trois, will have to
figure out how to prevent a war from breaking out if Russia is to
maintain its influence with both.
Sources:
- Idlib / Turkey / Russia / UNSC / Diplomats battle over key Syria aid resolution (New Humanitarian, 17-Dec-2019)
- As Turkey and Russia pull the strings in Syria’s Idlib, civilians pay the price (New Humanitarian, 21-May-2019)
- Armed groups planning new attack against Syrian Army: Russia (Al-Masdar News, Damascus, 17-Dec-2019)
- Idlib / How long will Turkey remain in northeast Syria? (Al-Jazeera, 19-Oct-2019)
- President al-Assad meets army personnel on frontlines in Idleb and Hama countryside (Sana, Damascus, 22-Oct-2019)
- Calling Erdogan a 'thief', Syria's Assad tours Idlib frontline near rebels (Reuters, 22-Oct-2019)
- Idlib / Turkey thief / The Latest: Pence says 5-day cease-fire in Syria has held (AP, 23-Oct-2019)
- Syria Prepares for Massive Offensive as U.S. Votes for New Sanctions on Assad, Russia and Iran (Time, 17-Dec-2019)
- Syria war: Air strikes and shelling kill 14 civilians in Idlib (BBC, 17-Dec-2019)
- Syrian regime pushed Idlib offensive under cover of other crises (JPost, 12-Dec-2019)
- Apparent Russian airstrikes on rebel-held northwest Syria's Idlib kill three, including two kids (Japan Times, 17-Dec-2019)
- Child killed, 7 injured in Assad regime strikes in Idlib, Syria (Anadolu, Ankara, 17-Dec-2019)
- UN / Najat Rochd / Escalation of Violence in the Idlib Area (United Nations, 18-Dec-2019)
- Turkey / Syria / 12,000 people flee Idlib amid regime, Russian attacks (Anadolu, Ankara, 18-Dec-2019)
- Regime attacks in Idlib force 12,000 civilians to flee toward Turkish border (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 18-Dec-2019)
- History of Alawites / Alawites and the Fate of Syria (Ohio State University, 2014)
Related Articles:
- Generational analysis of Turkey-Syria war and ceasefire agreement (18-Oct-2019)
- Turkey defends Syria invasion, despite almost universal condemnation (11-Oct-2019)
- Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone' (08-Oct-2019)
- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria (01-Dec-2018)
- Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib (28-Oct-2018)
- As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy (05-Oct-2018)
- Russia demands that US and EU pay to rebuild Syria (23-Aug-2018)
- US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
- Turkey threatens Syria, as military attacks Palestinian refugee camp (16-Aug-2011)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Kurds, Bashar al-Assad, Alawites, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase,
Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, Idlib,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Liberation of the Levant Organization,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
