12-25-2019, 11:42 PM
*** 26-Dec-19 World View -- Turkey, Russia and Greece face off in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey's Erdogan threatens Greece and Europe with Idlib refugees
****
![[Image: g191225b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g191225b.jpg)
Over 120,000 civilians are fleeing their homes in Idlib and heading for Turkey's border (Sky News)
As Syria's sociopathic monster president Bashar al-Assad, backed by
Russia, continues to escalate his assault on the 3.5 million Arab
Sunnis in Idlib province, including about 1.5 million children. Among
those 3.5 million people, there are some 70,000 anti-Assad rebels.
According to some reports, Assad's strategy is to attack markets,
residential neighborhoods, schools and hospitals in order to kill as
many women and children as possible, and force the rest to flee
towards the border with Turkey.
According to reports, some 120,000 civilians have abandoned their
homes and are fleeing north towards the border with Turkey. Then,
according to these reports, al-Assad's ground forces can move into the
villages that have been deserted by these civilians and supposedly the
only ones left are that men who are fighting against al-Assad.
In a speech on Sunday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said
Turkey is already hosting 3.7 million Syrian refugees. For the past
three years, Turkey has had an agreement Greece and the European Union
to block Syrian refugees from leaving Turkey. Turkey has mostly kept
to that agreement, while the EU has reneged on most of the commitments
it made.
Erdogan on Sunday said that Turkey cannot handle a "new refugee wave"
from Syria, and that the new influx will be felt by Greece and "will
be felt by all European countries." Most Syrian refugees want to go
to Europe anyway, and the implementation is that Turkey will no longer
try to prevent them from doing so.
In the past, Russia and Turkey have agreed that Idlib will be a
de-escalation zone, or a ceasefire zone. All those agreements about
ceasefire zones were never more than covers for further further
assaults by Syria and Russia. But now Assad has reached the Idlib
deescalation zone, so Russia's support for Assad makes Russia Turkey's
enemy.
Russian officials are claiming that they are working for peace in
Idlib, but Russian officials never tell the truth except by accident.
So far, it's impossible to determine what Russia's plans are in Idlib,
whether to help Assad or to stop al-Assad. We'll probably know within
the next few months, but al-Assad has always made it clear that he
plans to take control of Idlib and exterminate the 3.5 million Arab
Sunni civilians living there, so I would consider it unlikely that
Russia will stop al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing.
****
**** Libya's Tripoli government asks Turkey for ground troops
****
As we reported last week, the war in Libya is also escalating. ( "21-Dec-19 World View -- War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey"
)
Turkey had promised weapons and military advisers to the government,
but during the last few days, the Tripoli government has made a
request for ground troops from Turkey.
There are two governments in Libya. The internationally recognized
Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Prime
Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, and the renegade Tobruk-based Libyan
National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar.
Haftar has been trying for three years lead his Libyan National Army
to defeat the Tripoli government, with little success. During the
last few months, Russia's president Vladimir Putin has made his
private army, the Wagner PMC Mercenary Group, available to Haftar, and
now they are leading the military effort to defeat Tripoli.
And so, as in Idlib, Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides of the
battle, and, as in Idlib, Russian officials are claiming that they're
negotiating for peace.
As I wrote in 2015, Turkey and Russia have been bitter enemies for
centuries, and have fought numerous generational crisis wars. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
.)
Any alliance made between the two countries today could only be a
temporary marriage of convenience. Turkey is so thoroughly isolated
in the region that it needs support from Russia. Russia is totally
duplicitous and appears to be playing all sides to see which one wins.
****
**** Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens eastern Mediterranean peace
****
As we reported in last week's article,
there was a second agreement signed by Libya and Turkey on
the same day as the military agreement: A maritime agreement that
claims a shared exclusive economic zone (EEZ) consisting of a 200-mile
wide strip that splits much of the eastern Mediterrean between them.
The claimed region is rich in oil and gas, and makes the Libya-Turkey
agreements much more important than Turkey merely helping out a friend
in Libya. If the maritime agreement could be upheld, it would mean a
great deal of energy money pouring into Turkey's coffers.
The agreement is almost certainly illegal, as the claimed region
overlaps regions historically belonging to Greece, Cyprus, Lebanon,
Egypt and Israel. Furthermore, it would block a planned Eastern
Mediterranean Gas Forum agreement signed by Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, and
Greece earlier this year, along with a planned pipeline that would
carry natural gas to Greece and Italy.
****
**** Turkey, Russia and Greece face off in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean
****
Putting all this together, you have:
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these are additional
tensions that keep surging in this generational Crisis era, adding to
numerous tensions elsewhere, including Hong Kong, the South China Sea,
Kashmir, India, Pakistan, and South America.
In the 1990s, when the Silent generation was running the world, a
small clash would almost always be quickly settled. Today, with the
Gen-Xers running the world, a small clash could escalate into a larger
war. With all these tensions and clashes occurring around the world,
at some point one of them will escalate.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad,
Greece, Cyprus, Lebanon, Israel,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, China,
Libya, Tripoli, Misurata, Sirte,
Fayez al-Sarraj,
General Khalifa Haftar, Tobruk, Benghazi, Ajdabiya,
Libyan National Army, LNA, Russia, Wagner Group PMC
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey's Erdogan threatens Greece and Europe with Idlib refugees
- Libya's Tripoli government asks Turkey for ground troops
- Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens eastern Mediterranean peace
- Turkey, Russia and Greece face off in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean
****
**** Turkey's Erdogan threatens Greece and Europe with Idlib refugees
****
Over 120,000 civilians are fleeing their homes in Idlib and heading for Turkey's border (Sky News)
As Syria's sociopathic monster president Bashar al-Assad, backed by
Russia, continues to escalate his assault on the 3.5 million Arab
Sunnis in Idlib province, including about 1.5 million children. Among
those 3.5 million people, there are some 70,000 anti-Assad rebels.
According to some reports, Assad's strategy is to attack markets,
residential neighborhoods, schools and hospitals in order to kill as
many women and children as possible, and force the rest to flee
towards the border with Turkey.
According to reports, some 120,000 civilians have abandoned their
homes and are fleeing north towards the border with Turkey. Then,
according to these reports, al-Assad's ground forces can move into the
villages that have been deserted by these civilians and supposedly the
only ones left are that men who are fighting against al-Assad.
In a speech on Sunday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said
Turkey is already hosting 3.7 million Syrian refugees. For the past
three years, Turkey has had an agreement Greece and the European Union
to block Syrian refugees from leaving Turkey. Turkey has mostly kept
to that agreement, while the EU has reneged on most of the commitments
it made.
Erdogan on Sunday said that Turkey cannot handle a "new refugee wave"
from Syria, and that the new influx will be felt by Greece and "will
be felt by all European countries." Most Syrian refugees want to go
to Europe anyway, and the implementation is that Turkey will no longer
try to prevent them from doing so.
In the past, Russia and Turkey have agreed that Idlib will be a
de-escalation zone, or a ceasefire zone. All those agreements about
ceasefire zones were never more than covers for further further
assaults by Syria and Russia. But now Assad has reached the Idlib
deescalation zone, so Russia's support for Assad makes Russia Turkey's
enemy.
Russian officials are claiming that they are working for peace in
Idlib, but Russian officials never tell the truth except by accident.
So far, it's impossible to determine what Russia's plans are in Idlib,
whether to help Assad or to stop al-Assad. We'll probably know within
the next few months, but al-Assad has always made it clear that he
plans to take control of Idlib and exterminate the 3.5 million Arab
Sunni civilians living there, so I would consider it unlikely that
Russia will stop al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing.
****
**** Libya's Tripoli government asks Turkey for ground troops
****
As we reported last week, the war in Libya is also escalating. ( "21-Dec-19 World View -- War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey"
)
Turkey had promised weapons and military advisers to the government,
but during the last few days, the Tripoli government has made a
request for ground troops from Turkey.
There are two governments in Libya. The internationally recognized
Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Prime
Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, and the renegade Tobruk-based Libyan
National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar.
Haftar has been trying for three years lead his Libyan National Army
to defeat the Tripoli government, with little success. During the
last few months, Russia's president Vladimir Putin has made his
private army, the Wagner PMC Mercenary Group, available to Haftar, and
now they are leading the military effort to defeat Tripoli.
And so, as in Idlib, Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides of the
battle, and, as in Idlib, Russian officials are claiming that they're
negotiating for peace.
As I wrote in 2015, Turkey and Russia have been bitter enemies for
centuries, and have fought numerous generational crisis wars. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
.)
Any alliance made between the two countries today could only be a
temporary marriage of convenience. Turkey is so thoroughly isolated
in the region that it needs support from Russia. Russia is totally
duplicitous and appears to be playing all sides to see which one wins.
****
**** Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens eastern Mediterranean peace
****
As we reported in last week's article,
there was a second agreement signed by Libya and Turkey on
the same day as the military agreement: A maritime agreement that
claims a shared exclusive economic zone (EEZ) consisting of a 200-mile
wide strip that splits much of the eastern Mediterrean between them.
The claimed region is rich in oil and gas, and makes the Libya-Turkey
agreements much more important than Turkey merely helping out a friend
in Libya. If the maritime agreement could be upheld, it would mean a
great deal of energy money pouring into Turkey's coffers.
The agreement is almost certainly illegal, as the claimed region
overlaps regions historically belonging to Greece, Cyprus, Lebanon,
Egypt and Israel. Furthermore, it would block a planned Eastern
Mediterranean Gas Forum agreement signed by Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, and
Greece earlier this year, along with a planned pipeline that would
carry natural gas to Greece and Italy.
****
**** Turkey, Russia and Greece face off in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean
****
Putting all this together, you have:
- An escalating situation in Idlib, Syria, which may result in
hundreds of thousands of new Syrian refugees entering Turkey, and
moving on to Europe.
- A fraught relationship between Turkey and Libya, with the two
countries on opposite sides of the wars in Idlib and Libya.
- New economic tensions in an already very fraught relationship
between Turkey versus Cyprus and Greece.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these are additional
tensions that keep surging in this generational Crisis era, adding to
numerous tensions elsewhere, including Hong Kong, the South China Sea,
Kashmir, India, Pakistan, and South America.
In the 1990s, when the Silent generation was running the world, a
small clash would almost always be quickly settled. Today, with the
Gen-Xers running the world, a small clash could escalate into a larger
war. With all these tensions and clashes occurring around the world,
at some point one of them will escalate.
Sources:
- Erdogan says Turkey cannot handle new migrant wave from Syria, warns Europe (France24/Reuters, 22-Dec-2019)
- Syria war: Turkey can't handle new 'refugee wave', says Erdogan (BBC, 22-Dec-2019)
- President Erdogan: More than 80 thousand of our Idlib brothers started to migrate towards the border of our country (Anadolu, Ankara, 22-Dec-2019)
(Translation)
- Syria / Idlib / Russia / Newly Aggressive Turkey Forges Alliance With Libya (Foreign Policy, 23-Dec-2019)
- Intel: How Russia and Turkey are eyeing new deals on Idlib and Libya (Al-Monitor, 23-Dec-2019)
- Turkey, Russia to discuss Syrian refugees, Libya conflict (Hurriyet, Ankara, 23-Dec-2019)
- Turkey calls on Russia to push for new ceasefire in Idlib (Al Masdar, Beirut, 25-Dec-2019)
- Libya / Turkey / Russia / Analysis The Major Powers’ Latest Middle Eastern Playing Field (Haaretz, 25-Dec-2019)
- Turkey / Habertürk TV vehicle targeted in rocket attack in Libya (Sabah, Ankara, 25-Dec-2019)
- Lebanon’s leaders in blame game over crisis (Arab News, 25-Dec-2019)
- Is the past prelude for U.S.-Turkish relations? (Ahval, Ankara, 25-Dec-2019)
- Does Russia's policy in Libya complicate Turkey's peacebuilding project? (TRTWorld, Ankara, 25-Dec-2019)
- Libyan officials collect evidence of Russian fighters in war (AP, 5-Dec-2019)
- Turkey's Erdogan makes surprise visit to Tunisia to discuss Libya (Al-Jazeera,, 25-Dec-2019)
- Turkey-Libya maritime deal rattles East Mediterranean (Reuters, 25-Dec-2019)
- Spotlight: Russia-Turkey tensions grow over disputes on Syria, Libya (Xinhua, 26-Dec-2019)
- Syria: Turkish president calls for ceasefire as civilians flee Idlib (Sky News, 25-Dec-2019)
- Turkey and Russia face tension again over Idlib (Ahval, Ankara, 25-Dec-2019)
Related Articles:
- Syria, Russia veto humanitarian aid to Idlib as civilian massacre escalates (22-Dec-2019)
- War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey (21-Dec-2019)
- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border (19-Dec-2019)
- Generational analysis of Turkey-Syria war and ceasefire agreement (18-Oct-2019)
- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria (01-Dec-2018)
- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
- Italy's Libya peace talk conference ends in drama but no resolution (14-Nov-2018)
- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic (07-Nov-2018)
- The delusional terms of the Turkey-Russian Idlib agreement (18-Sep-2018)
- A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention (05-Mar-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad,
Greece, Cyprus, Lebanon, Israel,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, China,
Libya, Tripoli, Misurata, Sirte,
Fayez al-Sarraj,
General Khalifa Haftar, Tobruk, Benghazi, Ajdabiya,
Libyan National Army, LNA, Russia, Wagner Group PMC
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
