01-08-2020, 02:55 PM
** 08-Jan-2020 World View: Iran stands down after missile attack
You'd never know it from the mainstream media, but the last 24 hours
appear to have been a further setback for Iran.
As we've previously discussed, Iran badly miscalculated by believing
that they could continue to attack American troops with impunity. The
assassination of Iran's Gen. Qassim Soleimani was a tremendous shock
to Iran's leaders.
The funeral for Iran was staged to show that millions of Iranians now
support the Iran's government, although it showed nothing of the sort,
since it's widely believed that, while there were many genuine
mourners, most of those attending the funeral did so because they were
forced to by the government.
As I wrote yesterday, the whole funeral show was marred by a stampede
that killed dozens of people, an ironic event, given that a stampede
occurred in Saudi Arabia in 2015, killing hundreds of Iranians, that
Iran blamed on incompetence and criminality of Saudi leadership. Now,
there are certain to be accusations in Iran questioning the competence
and criminality of Iran's leaders, and even questioning whether the
stampede was punishment from Allah for deifying a bloody monster like
Soleimani.
Then there was last night's revenge attack on America. This consisted
of dozens of high-precision missiles apparently targeting grassy
fields near Iraqi military bases where some American soldiers are
stationed. No American was hurt, but it appears to have been an
"intentional miss" to prevent further retaliation from Trump.
Next, incredibly, a Ukrainian airliner crashed shortly after takeoff
from Tehran airport, killing 176 people, mostly Iranians, with no
survivors. Iran's officials claim it was a mechanical problem with
the plane, but Ukrainian airline officials say that the plane was
inspected two days ago with no problem. The plane's "black box" would
provide the answers, but apparently Iran is not going to permit anyone
else to see the data in the black box. The plane exploded and fell to
earth shortly after the missile attack. The obvious suspicion, denied
by Iran, is that an Iranian missile shot down the plane, or an Iranian
terrorist attack brought down the plane.
***
*** Generational analysis of Iran's response
***
You know, Dear Reader, whenever I make predictions as I did in my
article on Friday, saying unequivocally that there wouldn't be a war,
I always take a deep breath and wonder whether this will finally be
the time that I'm wrong, and I look like an idiot. Fortunately for me
and for Generational Dynamics, that didn't happen this time, and in
fact has never happened in hundreds of such predictions over the
years, although this was one of the most dramatic.
** 4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200104
What did happen, obviously, is completely in line with the
generational analysis I posted. What I particularly want to point to
is the history of Iran's border wars in the 1800s. These wars were
disastrous for Iran, with the result that Iran takes pride in not
invading anyone. Instead, they've sublimated their military
nationalism into paying terrorist groups to conduct proxy wars on
Iran's behalf.
The Iranians have really botched this up. They got Soleimani killed,
they messed up the funeral, they may be responsible for an airline
disaster, and they launched an "intentional miss" missile attack.
The significance of this is that the missile attack was supposedly
attacking Americans, but it was on Iraqi bases on Iraqi soil. Iraq
has been undergoing months of anti-Iran protests. Iran's missile
attack on Iraqi soil is going to be interpreted as a message to Iraq's
government to continue doing as they're told, and it will strengthen
the voices of the many people who want to see Iran out.
I saw an interview on the BBC with Ayad Allawi, former VP and PM of
Iraq. Allawi is Shia, but opposed to Iran's presence in Iraq. One
thing that was interesting was that the BBC interviewer made the usual
hysterical remarks about war, but Allawi clearly thought they were
ridiculous and laughed them off.
However, the one point that really stuck out for me was when Allawi
was asked whether he would prefer Iranian influence or American
influence in Iraq, to which he said that he prefers American
influence. Upon further questioning, he said that when there are
problems with the American relationship, the Iraqis can get them
resolved by appealing to the United Nations or the European Union, but
when there are problems with Iran, then Iraq was simply screwed
(though he didn't use that word).
Anyone interested in watching the Allawi interview will find it on the
BBC Hardtalk podcast page:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p004t1s.../downloads
Returning now to Iran's plans, Iran is claiming that 30 American
soldiers were killed, though no American or Iraqi soldiers were
actually killed, though some Iraqis were injured.
Iran will learn a lesson from this episode, but not the lesson we
would like them to learn. They will not learn the lesson that they
shouldn't attack America and its allies.
The lesson that they will learn is to revisit the lesson they
originally learned during the disastrous 1860s border wars, and
they'll go back to attacking Americans through proxies and allies.
However, Iran will also have learned the lesson that proxy attacks can
lead to retribution from Donald Trump.
Sources:
-- Trump says Iran ‘appears to be standing down,’ missile strikes
resulted in no casualties
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-t...ll-is-well
(FoxNews, 8-Jan-2020)
-- US knew Iranian missiles were coming ahead of strike; Trump
announces new sanctions
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/worl...842200001/
(USAToday, 8-Jan-2020)
Related Articles:
** 4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200104
** 1-Jan-20 World View -- US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200101
** 31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191231
** 29-Nov-19 World View -- Spiraling bloodbath in Iraq, as anti-Iran and anti-government riots spread
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191129
** 3-Nov-19 World View -- Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191103
You'd never know it from the mainstream media, but the last 24 hours
appear to have been a further setback for Iran.
As we've previously discussed, Iran badly miscalculated by believing
that they could continue to attack American troops with impunity. The
assassination of Iran's Gen. Qassim Soleimani was a tremendous shock
to Iran's leaders.
The funeral for Iran was staged to show that millions of Iranians now
support the Iran's government, although it showed nothing of the sort,
since it's widely believed that, while there were many genuine
mourners, most of those attending the funeral did so because they were
forced to by the government.
As I wrote yesterday, the whole funeral show was marred by a stampede
that killed dozens of people, an ironic event, given that a stampede
occurred in Saudi Arabia in 2015, killing hundreds of Iranians, that
Iran blamed on incompetence and criminality of Saudi leadership. Now,
there are certain to be accusations in Iran questioning the competence
and criminality of Iran's leaders, and even questioning whether the
stampede was punishment from Allah for deifying a bloody monster like
Soleimani.
Then there was last night's revenge attack on America. This consisted
of dozens of high-precision missiles apparently targeting grassy
fields near Iraqi military bases where some American soldiers are
stationed. No American was hurt, but it appears to have been an
"intentional miss" to prevent further retaliation from Trump.
Next, incredibly, a Ukrainian airliner crashed shortly after takeoff
from Tehran airport, killing 176 people, mostly Iranians, with no
survivors. Iran's officials claim it was a mechanical problem with
the plane, but Ukrainian airline officials say that the plane was
inspected two days ago with no problem. The plane's "black box" would
provide the answers, but apparently Iran is not going to permit anyone
else to see the data in the black box. The plane exploded and fell to
earth shortly after the missile attack. The obvious suspicion, denied
by Iran, is that an Iranian missile shot down the plane, or an Iranian
terrorist attack brought down the plane.
***
*** Generational analysis of Iran's response
***
You know, Dear Reader, whenever I make predictions as I did in my
article on Friday, saying unequivocally that there wouldn't be a war,
I always take a deep breath and wonder whether this will finally be
the time that I'm wrong, and I look like an idiot. Fortunately for me
and for Generational Dynamics, that didn't happen this time, and in
fact has never happened in hundreds of such predictions over the
years, although this was one of the most dramatic.
** 4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200104
What did happen, obviously, is completely in line with the
generational analysis I posted. What I particularly want to point to
is the history of Iran's border wars in the 1800s. These wars were
disastrous for Iran, with the result that Iran takes pride in not
invading anyone. Instead, they've sublimated their military
nationalism into paying terrorist groups to conduct proxy wars on
Iran's behalf.
The Iranians have really botched this up. They got Soleimani killed,
they messed up the funeral, they may be responsible for an airline
disaster, and they launched an "intentional miss" missile attack.
The significance of this is that the missile attack was supposedly
attacking Americans, but it was on Iraqi bases on Iraqi soil. Iraq
has been undergoing months of anti-Iran protests. Iran's missile
attack on Iraqi soil is going to be interpreted as a message to Iraq's
government to continue doing as they're told, and it will strengthen
the voices of the many people who want to see Iran out.
I saw an interview on the BBC with Ayad Allawi, former VP and PM of
Iraq. Allawi is Shia, but opposed to Iran's presence in Iraq. One
thing that was interesting was that the BBC interviewer made the usual
hysterical remarks about war, but Allawi clearly thought they were
ridiculous and laughed them off.
However, the one point that really stuck out for me was when Allawi
was asked whether he would prefer Iranian influence or American
influence in Iraq, to which he said that he prefers American
influence. Upon further questioning, he said that when there are
problems with the American relationship, the Iraqis can get them
resolved by appealing to the United Nations or the European Union, but
when there are problems with Iran, then Iraq was simply screwed
(though he didn't use that word).
Anyone interested in watching the Allawi interview will find it on the
BBC Hardtalk podcast page:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p004t1s.../downloads
Returning now to Iran's plans, Iran is claiming that 30 American
soldiers were killed, though no American or Iraqi soldiers were
actually killed, though some Iraqis were injured.
Iran will learn a lesson from this episode, but not the lesson we
would like them to learn. They will not learn the lesson that they
shouldn't attack America and its allies.
The lesson that they will learn is to revisit the lesson they
originally learned during the disastrous 1860s border wars, and
they'll go back to attacking Americans through proxies and allies.
However, Iran will also have learned the lesson that proxy attacks can
lead to retribution from Donald Trump.
Sources:
-- Trump says Iran ‘appears to be standing down,’ missile strikes
resulted in no casualties
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-t...ll-is-well
(FoxNews, 8-Jan-2020)
-- US knew Iranian missiles were coming ahead of strike; Trump
announces new sanctions
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/worl...842200001/
(USAToday, 8-Jan-2020)
Related Articles:
** 4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200104
** 1-Jan-20 World View -- US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200101
** 31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191231
** 29-Nov-19 World View -- Spiraling bloodbath in Iraq, as anti-Iran and anti-government riots spread
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191129
** 3-Nov-19 World View -- Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191103
