01-11-2020, 12:10 PM
50 state polls from one source... from a pollster secretive about its methods and often out of touch with other pollsters.
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/
Morning Consult, December '19:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;9&AK=1;3;3&AZ=1;11;3&AR=2;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=1;9;7&CT=1;7;9&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;9&FL=4;29;1&GA=1;16;3&HI=1;4;9&ID=2;4;5&IL=1;20;9&IN=2;11;3&IA=1;6;5&KS=2;6;5&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;8;5&MD=1;10;9&MA=1;11;9&MI=1;16;7&MN=1;10;7&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;10;5&MT=2;3;3&NV=1;6;7&NH=1;4;7&NJ=1;14;7&NM=1;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=4;15;1&ND=2;3;5&OH=1;18;3&OK=2;7;5&OR=1;7;9&PA=1;20;5&RI=1;4;9&SC=2;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;7&TX=2;38;3&UT=2;6;5&VT=1;3;9&VA=1;13;5&WA=1;12;9&WV=2;5;9&WI=1;10;7&WY=2;3;9&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;2;3&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Trump advantage 10% or higher (really dark for 20%+)
Trump advantage 5% to 9%
Trump advantage 1% to 4%
tie -- no advantage (white)
Trump disadvantage 1-4%
Trump disadvantage 5% to 9%
Trump disadvantage 10% or more (really dark for 20%+)
Medium-to-deep red seem to give Trump a loss outside of the margin of error (4%) for 284 electoral votes. 147 are on the bubble (I can in no way see that NE-03 goes any way except for Trump) as they will be decided by 4% or less. That leaves 117 sure-things for him.
Trump isn't winning with these state numbers.
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/
Morning Consult, December '19:
Trump advantage 10% or higher (really dark for 20%+)
Trump advantage 5% to 9%
Trump advantage 1% to 4%
tie -- no advantage (white)
Trump disadvantage 1-4%
Trump disadvantage 5% to 9%
Trump disadvantage 10% or more (really dark for 20%+)
Medium-to-deep red seem to give Trump a loss outside of the margin of error (4%) for 284 electoral votes. 147 are on the bubble (I can in no way see that NE-03 goes any way except for Trump) as they will be decided by 4% or less. That leaves 117 sure-things for him.
Trump isn't winning with these state numbers.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.