01-14-2020, 07:48 PM
** 14-Jan-2020 World View: Bubble
OK, but I think it's more nuanced than that.
When I was talking about a bubble and crash in the mid-2000s, people
would say, "That can't happen. After the 1929 crash, laws were passed
to make sure that a new crash would never happen again."
As I pointed out at the time, those laws had all been repealed in the
1980s and 1990s.
And then there's the continuing mystery of Alan Greenspan. I followed
all his speeches in the early 2000s. All the mainstream economic
reporters were whining, "Whaaa, whaaa, whaaa, Greenspan uses big
words, and even though I'm supposed to be an expert, I'm actually too
stupid to understand what he's saying."
I didn't understand Greenspan's speeches at first either, but I would
go the Federal Reserve web site and read it over a few times, and then
I always understood. But that was beyond the mental capacity of all
the "experts" at WSJ, CNBC, and elsewhere.
So as I wrote at the time, Greenspan knew in 2004 that there was a
housing bubble, but he thought it was a good thing, because it gave
people more money. In Dec 2004, he told the WSJ that he knew in the
late 90s that a bubble was growing, but that he decided to take care
of it later. It wasn't until 2005 that he became alarmed.
Milton Friedman had "proved" that the Great Depression had occurred
because the Fed kept interest rates too high, and could have been
prevented completely by lowering interest rates a bit. He said that
any depression could be ended quickly by using a helicopter to drop
money and spread it around.
And of course Ben Bernanke said that he didn't believe in bubbles, and
always "knew" that a bubble could be safely deflated by using
Milton Friedman's helicopter idea.
The 2008 financial crisis proved that Friedman, Greenspan and Bernanke
were all completely full of crap. But then the Fed took up the battle
with quantitative easing.
So now we're in a huge bubble again, the hugest bubble in all of human
history. But anybody who talks about a stock market "crash" says it
will only fall 10-20%, because now the Fed is oh so clever, and has
"saved some bullets" to be used if there's a recession.
So when I say that Trump may not believe there's a bubble, what I mean
is that he knows about the 2000 bubble and the 2007 bubble, but he
doesn't believe that a bubble bursting will have severe consequences.
That's really no different than not believing in a bubble at all.
One other memory: In the mid-2000s, no one believed that there was a
housing bubble, even though it was completely obvious, as I wrote in
many articles. Mainstream financial analysts, economists and
journalists would say, "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to
live somewhere," and "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their
interest to do so" and "These housing construction firms know what
they're doing, and they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a
bubble."
It wasn't until 2010 that mainstream economist idiots even admitted
that there had been a housing bubble --- five years earlier!!!
And of course there was the whole subprime mortgage fraud, the biggest
financial fraud in the history of the world, that Obama covered up by
accepting hundreds of billions of dollars in donations to himself and
his cronies in exchange for not prosecuting.
So that's all in the past. Today we have Trump. I've said many times
that, because of his connection to Steve Bannon, and Bannon's
expertise in Generational Dynamics through working with me, Trump is
well aware that war with China is coming. The reporters in the media,
most of whom couldn't find China on a map, are totally baffled by
Trump's foreign policy, 98% of which makes perfect sense when you
realize that the issue is war with China.
But Bannon is also very aware of the coming financial crisis. In
fact, that's what the documentary movie Generation Zero was mainly
about, and that's the movie that Bannon produced and I appeared in.
So Bannon would certainly have told Trump about the danger of a stock
market bubble and global financial crisis.
But that doesn't mean that Trump believes it. Trump may well believe,
like all the mainstream idiots, that there's a bubble going on, and
even if there is a bubble, and even if the bubble bursts, then it
won't be any worse than the bubbles that burst in 2000 and 2007.
That's just as good as not believing there's a bubble.
John Wrote:> It's not clear that Trump even understands that there's a stock
> market bubble. But if he does, he wouldn't want it to burst
> before the election.
Higgenbotham Wrote:> If he doesn't understand, it's because he chooses not to
> understand. Because he understood at S&P 2100.
Trump on 26 Sep, 2016 | 22:05 Wrote:> Trump: 'We are in a big, fat, ugly bubble'
> Donald Trump reiterated his belief that Janet Yellen and the
> Federal Reserve are keeping interest rates low for political
> reasons during the first presidential debate on Sept. 26.
> "The Fed is being more political than Secretary Clinton," the
> Republican presidential candidate said.
> [urlhttps://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/qhue31vybncnasg4p7wxrq2[/url]
OK, but I think it's more nuanced than that.
When I was talking about a bubble and crash in the mid-2000s, people
would say, "That can't happen. After the 1929 crash, laws were passed
to make sure that a new crash would never happen again."
As I pointed out at the time, those laws had all been repealed in the
1980s and 1990s.
And then there's the continuing mystery of Alan Greenspan. I followed
all his speeches in the early 2000s. All the mainstream economic
reporters were whining, "Whaaa, whaaa, whaaa, Greenspan uses big
words, and even though I'm supposed to be an expert, I'm actually too
stupid to understand what he's saying."
I didn't understand Greenspan's speeches at first either, but I would
go the Federal Reserve web site and read it over a few times, and then
I always understood. But that was beyond the mental capacity of all
the "experts" at WSJ, CNBC, and elsewhere.
So as I wrote at the time, Greenspan knew in 2004 that there was a
housing bubble, but he thought it was a good thing, because it gave
people more money. In Dec 2004, he told the WSJ that he knew in the
late 90s that a bubble was growing, but that he decided to take care
of it later. It wasn't until 2005 that he became alarmed.
Milton Friedman had "proved" that the Great Depression had occurred
because the Fed kept interest rates too high, and could have been
prevented completely by lowering interest rates a bit. He said that
any depression could be ended quickly by using a helicopter to drop
money and spread it around.
And of course Ben Bernanke said that he didn't believe in bubbles, and
always "knew" that a bubble could be safely deflated by using
Milton Friedman's helicopter idea.
The 2008 financial crisis proved that Friedman, Greenspan and Bernanke
were all completely full of crap. But then the Fed took up the battle
with quantitative easing.
So now we're in a huge bubble again, the hugest bubble in all of human
history. But anybody who talks about a stock market "crash" says it
will only fall 10-20%, because now the Fed is oh so clever, and has
"saved some bullets" to be used if there's a recession.
So when I say that Trump may not believe there's a bubble, what I mean
is that he knows about the 2000 bubble and the 2007 bubble, but he
doesn't believe that a bubble bursting will have severe consequences.
That's really no different than not believing in a bubble at all.
One other memory: In the mid-2000s, no one believed that there was a
housing bubble, even though it was completely obvious, as I wrote in
many articles. Mainstream financial analysts, economists and
journalists would say, "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to
live somewhere," and "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their
interest to do so" and "These housing construction firms know what
they're doing, and they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a
bubble."
It wasn't until 2010 that mainstream economist idiots even admitted
that there had been a housing bubble --- five years earlier!!!
And of course there was the whole subprime mortgage fraud, the biggest
financial fraud in the history of the world, that Obama covered up by
accepting hundreds of billions of dollars in donations to himself and
his cronies in exchange for not prosecuting.
So that's all in the past. Today we have Trump. I've said many times
that, because of his connection to Steve Bannon, and Bannon's
expertise in Generational Dynamics through working with me, Trump is
well aware that war with China is coming. The reporters in the media,
most of whom couldn't find China on a map, are totally baffled by
Trump's foreign policy, 98% of which makes perfect sense when you
realize that the issue is war with China.
But Bannon is also very aware of the coming financial crisis. In
fact, that's what the documentary movie Generation Zero was mainly
about, and that's the movie that Bannon produced and I appeared in.
So Bannon would certainly have told Trump about the danger of a stock
market bubble and global financial crisis.
But that doesn't mean that Trump believes it. Trump may well believe,
like all the mainstream idiots, that there's a bubble going on, and
even if there is a bubble, and even if the bubble bursts, then it
won't be any worse than the bubbles that burst in 2000 and 2007.
That's just as good as not believing there's a bubble.
