01-20-2020, 12:42 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2020, 01:11 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
** 20-Jan-2020 World View: Iraq's Muhasasa System - Confessional form of government
Well, ok, in 2006 it was called al-Qaeda in Iraq, though al-Baghdadi
began putting out press releases calling it various flavors of Islamic
State in Iraq / Iraq and Syria / Sham / the Levant or whatever, or
Daesh in Arabic. I think of ISIS as beginning in 2013-14, when
al-Baghdadi broke from al-Qaeda and formed a caliphate in Raqqa,
Syria. But I wasn't seeking to get into that kind of history. I was
trying to make the simple point that the rise of ISIS was not caused
by Iraq's confessional form of government, since al-Qaeda originated
in Afghanistan and has spread to many other countries from southeast
Asia to northern Africa where there is no confessional form of
government.
However, you seem to have changed your mind anyway, because now you're
saying that Iraq's government isn't confessional after all.
Here's an article on the subject:
-- Muhasasa system / Confessional politics ensured Iran’s colonisation
of Iraq
https://thearabweekly.com/confessional-p...ation-iraq
(ArabWeekly, 4-Dec-2019)
This article blames Iraq's confessional Muhasasa System on the
Americans, who supposedly imposed it on the Iraqis, after Saddam was
deposed. Whereas you blame the rise of ISIS on the confessional
system, this article blames the violent interference of Iran into Iraq
on the confessional system.
Both of these make the logical error of assuming that correlation
implies causation. Irrespective of the form of government, both
al-Qaeda and Iran would have infiltrated Iraq. Iran's infiltration
follows from the Iran/Iraq war, and al-Qaeda's infiltration follows
from its spread to numerous countries.
Reading the Arab Weekly article leads me to an interesting
speculation. We know that Iraq attacked Iran with WMDs, and Iran was
convinced that Iraq was developing more WMDs, and only ended their own
nuclear development program in 2003 with Khamenei's fatwa, after the
Iraq war proved that Iraq was not developing WMDs. The speculation,
based on my reading of the Arab Weekly article, is that Iran demanded
of George Bush to implement a weak confessional form of government in
Iraq, in exchange for the fatwa to end nuclear development.
(01-20-2020, 09:42 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Not correct. The Islamic State started as the Islamic State in
> Iraq in 2006, and both Abu Omar Al Baghdadi, its first leader, and
> Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, its late leader, were Iraqis. When the
> Syrian civil war resulted in large numbers of Sunni militias being
> formed, the Islamic State absorbed some of them, but that was
> recruitment, not the foundation of the state.
> That said, I don't think Iraq actually has a confessional form of
> government; its democratic government doesn't guarantee any power
> for the Sunnis.
Well, ok, in 2006 it was called al-Qaeda in Iraq, though al-Baghdadi
began putting out press releases calling it various flavors of Islamic
State in Iraq / Iraq and Syria / Sham / the Levant or whatever, or
Daesh in Arabic. I think of ISIS as beginning in 2013-14, when
al-Baghdadi broke from al-Qaeda and formed a caliphate in Raqqa,
Syria. But I wasn't seeking to get into that kind of history. I was
trying to make the simple point that the rise of ISIS was not caused
by Iraq's confessional form of government, since al-Qaeda originated
in Afghanistan and has spread to many other countries from southeast
Asia to northern Africa where there is no confessional form of
government.
However, you seem to have changed your mind anyway, because now you're
saying that Iraq's government isn't confessional after all.
Here's an article on the subject:
-- Muhasasa system / Confessional politics ensured Iran’s colonisation
of Iraq
https://thearabweekly.com/confessional-p...ation-iraq
(ArabWeekly, 4-Dec-2019)
This article blames Iraq's confessional Muhasasa System on the
Americans, who supposedly imposed it on the Iraqis, after Saddam was
deposed. Whereas you blame the rise of ISIS on the confessional
system, this article blames the violent interference of Iran into Iraq
on the confessional system.
Both of these make the logical error of assuming that correlation
implies causation. Irrespective of the form of government, both
al-Qaeda and Iran would have infiltrated Iraq. Iran's infiltration
follows from the Iran/Iraq war, and al-Qaeda's infiltration follows
from its spread to numerous countries.
Reading the Arab Weekly article leads me to an interesting
speculation. We know that Iraq attacked Iran with WMDs, and Iran was
convinced that Iraq was developing more WMDs, and only ended their own
nuclear development program in 2003 with Khamenei's fatwa, after the
Iraq war proved that Iraq was not developing WMDs. The speculation,
based on my reading of the Arab Weekly article, is that Iran demanded
of George Bush to implement a weak confessional form of government in
Iraq, in exchange for the fatwa to end nuclear development.
