01-24-2020, 03:04 AM
Source for the statistics:
https://www.bw.edu/Assets/community-rese...-FINAL.pdf
(Would you vote for Donald Trump, the Republican?)
Ohio 39.4
Pennsylvania, 37.3
Michigan 33.9
Wisconsin 34.1
This is about as close as I could get to a definition of 'early support' as I saw in Nate Silver's essay (with analysis) of The Myth of 50%. Incumbents do not need to have 50% or so support early in campaign season, but they need to be within striking distance... which is about 43.5% so that they can get 50% of the share of the two-way vote in the November election.
A spirited and competent campaign is what one needs to go from the position in which one is in as a Governor or Senator, either administering or legislating, to getting elected. Doing the job is not as easy as campaigning, and reality typically cuts a bare win of 50% to about a 44% approval. (We see approval rates until the election year, and then we find such alternatives that may be more appropriate, such as results in match-ups.
Unless the Left side of the political spectrum splinters, Trump will be unable to win even 46% in Ohio based on the usual 6.5% gain for an incumbent with a spirited and competent campaign who makes no egregious errors. 6.5% is about what Obama got with a shrewd campaign effective at promoting optimism in 2012 without making many errors. Even if Trump could do as well from where he starts as did Obama -- he loses Ohio. 46% will not be enough for winning Ohio.
There is one big difference between Trump and Obama, though; Trump has been campaigning much of the time, so what more can he do? He is basically preaching to the choir at this point.
https://www.bw.edu/Assets/community-rese...-FINAL.pdf
(Would you vote for Donald Trump, the Republican?)
Ohio 39.4
Pennsylvania, 37.3
Michigan 33.9
Wisconsin 34.1
This is about as close as I could get to a definition of 'early support' as I saw in Nate Silver's essay (with analysis) of The Myth of 50%. Incumbents do not need to have 50% or so support early in campaign season, but they need to be within striking distance... which is about 43.5% so that they can get 50% of the share of the two-way vote in the November election.
A spirited and competent campaign is what one needs to go from the position in which one is in as a Governor or Senator, either administering or legislating, to getting elected. Doing the job is not as easy as campaigning, and reality typically cuts a bare win of 50% to about a 44% approval. (We see approval rates until the election year, and then we find such alternatives that may be more appropriate, such as results in match-ups.
Unless the Left side of the political spectrum splinters, Trump will be unable to win even 46% in Ohio based on the usual 6.5% gain for an incumbent with a spirited and competent campaign who makes no egregious errors. 6.5% is about what Obama got with a shrewd campaign effective at promoting optimism in 2012 without making many errors. Even if Trump could do as well from where he starts as did Obama -- he loses Ohio. 46% will not be enough for winning Ohio.
There is one big difference between Trump and Obama, though; Trump has been campaigning much of the time, so what more can he do? He is basically preaching to the choir at this point.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.