The Senate: Up for re-election in 2020:
Booker, NJ 45/19/36
Capito, WV 41/27/33
Cassidy, LA 47/27/26
Collins, ME 42/7/52
Coons, DE 52/20/28
Cornyn, TX 44/31/25
Cotton, AR 48/21/31
Daines, MT 47/21/31
Durbin, IL 38/25/37
Ernst, IA 37/21/42
Gardner, CO 37/23/40
Graham, SC 48/15/36
Hyde-Smith, MS 47/32/21
Inhofe, OK 46/23/31
Jones, AL 41/24/35
Markey, MA 50/25/25
McConnell, KY 37/13/50
McSally, AZ 37/24/40
Merkley, OR 47/27/28
Perdue, GA 49/25/26
Peters, MI 37/34/29
Reed, RI 53/23/24
Risch, ID 46/26/28
Rounds, SD 50/26/34
Sasse, NE 45/21/35
Shaheen, NH 52/11/37
Smith, MN 42/29/29
Sullivan, AS 43/24/33
Tillis, NC 34/29/37
Warner, VA 49/21/30
My handicapping: unless the Senate Majority Leader, anyone with 50% or higher disapproval is going down. Someone in this category is a very poor fit for the state. Anyone in this color (and there is only one -- Susan Collins) is in orange. McConnell may be abrasive and even corrupt, but at least he is in Kentucky, a tough state for a Democrat. If he is going to lose his Senate majority, he might go down. He won't go down otherwise, but the logic behind my thinking is that if he is not the Senate Majority Leader he will be unable to do anything for Kentuckians. I am putting Jones (D-AL) in green, because he is in the worst state in which to defend a Democratic Senate seat.
Anyone with approval at 50 or higher looks automatic. These are deep red (Republican) or blue (Democratic). Not quite as deep red or blue colors apply to anyone who has at least 45% approval and net 8% or higher. People in this category could easily hold onto their Senate seats despite their Party getting mauled in a landslide.
In pink or pale blue are those who will go as their state goes, and their state is likely to go as it has in most years. They have positive net approval, but either poor name recognition (so far) or may be approaching the end of the line politically. They win in good years for their Parties.
At this point, negative approval is a very bad sign even if seemingly slight. A reasonably-good challenger can take such a pol down. Surprisingly, no Democrat -- not even Jones -- is in this category. (Durbin is closer than any other Democrat, but at least he is running for Senate in Illinois, a tough state for a Republican to win a Senate seat in. It has been done, but not often (Mark Kirk).
I am making no presumptions about the quality of any pol. Much of that for most people is how well a Senator fits his state's political culture. This exercise does not assume how the impeachment of President Trump will turn out for Democrats. Votes involving the impeachment may prove the most important votes of any Senate career. Should President Trump seem vindicated in that state, then the Republican Senator at risk gets into a stronger position or a Democratic Senator ends up in a worse position. If, however, the acquittal of the President looks like a fix in that state and the Senator votes for some peremptory charade, then that Senator loses.
There will be open Senate seats in Georgia and Kansas, and I am not handicapping those. My best bet is that
(1) Collins goes down
(2) Jones more likely loses than wins, but miracles can happen.
(3) McConnell goes down if he has a perception of shadiness or he is doomed to lose the Senate majority
(4) Ernst, Gardner, McSally, and Tillis will more likely all go down to defeat than get re-elected
(5) the open seats in Georgia and Kansas will be a genuine wild cards, and
(6) other incumbents win.
I expect no change in political culture in any state from recent years other than generational change in which about 1.5% of the electorate (people over 55) drop out due to death and debility and younger voters replace them. The younger voters are much more D than the voters that they replace. That is a crude model, but one that is in operation. It is not enough to decide any Senate race at this point, and I am not using it as a factor. I am not predicting any scandals, and I cannot yet predict the effect of any Senate votes on impeachment including any vote for a peremptory dismissal.
2020 may be a reverse wave in which weak Senators newly elected in 2014 do not face a wave favoring them.
Booker, NJ 45/19/36
Capito, WV 41/27/33
Cassidy, LA 47/27/26
Collins, ME 42/7/52
Coons, DE 52/20/28
Cornyn, TX 44/31/25
Cotton, AR 48/21/31
Daines, MT 47/21/31
Durbin, IL 38/25/37
Ernst, IA 37/21/42
Gardner, CO 37/23/40
Graham, SC 48/15/36
Hyde-Smith, MS 47/32/21
Inhofe, OK 46/23/31
Jones, AL 41/24/35
Markey, MA 50/25/25
McConnell, KY 37/13/50
McSally, AZ 37/24/40
Merkley, OR 47/27/28
Perdue, GA 49/25/26
Peters, MI 37/34/29
Reed, RI 53/23/24
Risch, ID 46/26/28
Rounds, SD 50/26/34
Sasse, NE 45/21/35
Shaheen, NH 52/11/37
Smith, MN 42/29/29
Sullivan, AS 43/24/33
Tillis, NC 34/29/37
Warner, VA 49/21/30
My handicapping: unless the Senate Majority Leader, anyone with 50% or higher disapproval is going down. Someone in this category is a very poor fit for the state. Anyone in this color (and there is only one -- Susan Collins) is in orange. McConnell may be abrasive and even corrupt, but at least he is in Kentucky, a tough state for a Democrat. If he is going to lose his Senate majority, he might go down. He won't go down otherwise, but the logic behind my thinking is that if he is not the Senate Majority Leader he will be unable to do anything for Kentuckians. I am putting Jones (D-AL) in green, because he is in the worst state in which to defend a Democratic Senate seat.
Anyone with approval at 50 or higher looks automatic. These are deep red (Republican) or blue (Democratic). Not quite as deep red or blue colors apply to anyone who has at least 45% approval and net 8% or higher. People in this category could easily hold onto their Senate seats despite their Party getting mauled in a landslide.
In pink or pale blue are those who will go as their state goes, and their state is likely to go as it has in most years. They have positive net approval, but either poor name recognition (so far) or may be approaching the end of the line politically. They win in good years for their Parties.
At this point, negative approval is a very bad sign even if seemingly slight. A reasonably-good challenger can take such a pol down. Surprisingly, no Democrat -- not even Jones -- is in this category. (Durbin is closer than any other Democrat, but at least he is running for Senate in Illinois, a tough state for a Republican to win a Senate seat in. It has been done, but not often (Mark Kirk).
I am making no presumptions about the quality of any pol. Much of that for most people is how well a Senator fits his state's political culture. This exercise does not assume how the impeachment of President Trump will turn out for Democrats. Votes involving the impeachment may prove the most important votes of any Senate career. Should President Trump seem vindicated in that state, then the Republican Senator at risk gets into a stronger position or a Democratic Senator ends up in a worse position. If, however, the acquittal of the President looks like a fix in that state and the Senator votes for some peremptory charade, then that Senator loses.
There will be open Senate seats in Georgia and Kansas, and I am not handicapping those. My best bet is that
(1) Collins goes down
(2) Jones more likely loses than wins, but miracles can happen.
(3) McConnell goes down if he has a perception of shadiness or he is doomed to lose the Senate majority
(4) Ernst, Gardner, McSally, and Tillis will more likely all go down to defeat than get re-elected
(5) the open seats in Georgia and Kansas will be a genuine wild cards, and
(6) other incumbents win.
I expect no change in political culture in any state from recent years other than generational change in which about 1.5% of the electorate (people over 55) drop out due to death and debility and younger voters replace them. The younger voters are much more D than the voters that they replace. That is a crude model, but one that is in operation. It is not enough to decide any Senate race at this point, and I am not using it as a factor. I am not predicting any scandals, and I cannot yet predict the effect of any Senate votes on impeachment including any vote for a peremptory dismissal.
2020 may be a reverse wave in which weak Senators newly elected in 2014 do not face a wave favoring them.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.