Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 05-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus slowing?

(02-04-2020, 11:44 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

> Very interesting graph, John. The doubling time is under 2 days
> until January 29, at which point the graph starts dropping away
> from exponential growth.

> You may be interested in this:

> https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-says-...listb_pos1

> A man from Hong Kong had the coronavirus and was aboard a cruise
> ship with 3700 people. 273 people on the ship who had fevers or
> close contact with the infected man were tested. 31 tests have
> come back so far, and 10 of them are positive. With the ship
> being quarantined now, I'm not sure whether I should expect 100
> our of the 273 people eventually to test positive, or 1000 out of
> the 3700, or maybe all 3700.

That may be true, and if the growth is slowing, it would be a big
relief to everyone. Just keep in mind that a lot of people believe
that the Chinese are hiding cases, so we really won't know for a
couple of weeks.