02-15-2020, 08:49 PM
(02-15-2020, 06:33 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-15-2020, 10:23 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:(11-12-2018, 10:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: The Lichtman test, as you may recall, consists of thirteen keys for predicting who wins result of the next Presidential election.
(update, 15 February 2020)
The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.
Code: red -- favors Democrats without ambiguity.
blue -- favors the Republican (Trump, or in case something happens to him, Pence)
green -- yet to be decided
-- ambiguous and subject to interpretation.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
One clear blue, eight red, three green (has not happened yet but still can), one purple (ambiguous). He must turn back two of the keys and prevent others from turning against him if he is to be re-elected.
I sure hope you're right. I don't think Lichtman would agree yet though.
Lichtman may overstate the chances for Trump.
Quote:I don't think the Democrats have turned Key 2 yet. Weld is not a serious enough challenger yet.
Weld is not as strong an intra-Party challenger as was Reagan against Ford or Ted Kennedy against Carter. Still, any challenge that suggests dissent with the incumbent is trouble if the incumbent has little room for political error (meaning loss of support). It would take about a 0.5 swing from R to D (and this would be heavily concentrated in states that were within 10% for or against Trump in 2016, as the others are far too polarized to be movable. A 1% shift from Trump to a right-leaning alternative would also defeat him Trump disapproval nationwide is enough that a significant part of the conservative vote has cause to vote against him.
Is this the result of Democrats doing mischief to Trump? Not likely as the Democratic nomination is still up in the air. Democrats can influence the general election far more by voting in Democratic primaries and caucuses than by messing with a Republican nomination that is a sure thing.
I see the Weld vote as mostly a protest vote, and at that New Hampshire may not be characteristic of America. Weld is from the neighboring state. If I can see William Weld far preferable to Donald Trump, I am sure that many Republicans can. #2 could shift to #4, and we will not know how that works until later, perhaps when we see polls that show something like
"Ohio -- Sanders 45, Trump 42, Kasich 8"... or
"Arizona -- Sanders 47, Trump 41, McMullen 10".
Trump cannot afford to lose either state.
Quote:Key 6 probably hasn't been turned, because the Trump economy is better than the first Obama term, if I remember correctly.
Better -- but Lichtman refers to the growth rate and not to other metrics. America grew its way out of the 2007-2009 meltdown just as it grew its way out of the even worse 1929-1932 meltdown.
Quote:I'm not sure about Key 10. Trump's foreign policy is abysmal, but I'm not sure any one mistake has been serious enough to be considered a failure yet.
The call to Ukraine is a catastrophic blunder, although it dovetails with overall corruption. He got impeached for it, and I count on Democrats hammering Trump for that. Vindication? No, partisan whitewash.
Quote:Trump could be turning Key 11 if the deal in Afghanistan goes through.
Maybe... maybe... maybe.
Quote:He still has the power to inspire and deceive his base. His demagogic talents are formidible. But Trump is not "charismatic" enough to turn that key #12, if that's the standard for this key.
It is not enough to win over the base. That is like offering meat to the family dog and expecting him to grab it. The pooch will use his tongue instead of his horrid fangs, but he will get it. Offering meat to a pet rabbit isn't so likely to get the same result. Goldwater, McGovern, and Mondale got their partisan bases, but little else.
Quote:If Bernie is nominated, Lichtman might give the Democrats Key 13, but I'm not sure.
In 1980, Carter's people were elated that Ronald Reagan, supposedly too extreme for America, got the nomination. The circumstances are not quite the same, and by no means can I see Trump getting fewer than 120 electoral votes. To be sure, there was John Anderson that year, and I can't see anyone winning 4-6% of the popular vote as a moderate. Sanders can appeal to the visceral appeal of "Your life will be better if you elect me" -- just as did Donald Trump or Barack Obama.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.