Election 2020

[David Horn]

(02-25-2020, 04:13 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Because the first 4 "retail politics" states vet the candidates better than the mass media states that follow, and provide the momentum from which candidates are nominated or not.

Also, there's the national polling average:

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Sanders28.8
Biden17.4
Bloomberg14.8
Warren13.0
Buttigieg10.2
Klobuchar5.6
Steyer2.4
Gabbard1.8

Sanders +11.4

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/

Polls show him leading or tied for the lead in many super tuesday states, though mostly not by the Nevada margin.

Sanders is the front runner. Debate tonight; we'll see how he does as front runner with the lances out for him, and whether Bloomberg is any better than the worst debate performance since Dan Quayle.

Just to clarify, about 100,000 Nevada Democrats or Democratic voters voted IIRC. The 14,000 are the county convention delegates that were chosen, who choose the national convention delegates (probably automatically according to the results of the caucus).

My bad on the 14,500, but the situation is still the same.  Large and diverse states have not really been in this … Nevada being somewhat the exception.  There needs to be a Pre-primary, perhaps, that sorts the pile down to no more than five candidates.  Then we start this process.  Ordinary people can't sort this pile, so they just don't.  That makes is a contest run by and for the committed, who are anything but representative.  

If Bernie wins the candidacy and the Presidency, then Progressivism is off to the races.  If he wins the candidacy and loses in the general, then Progressivism will take a hit -- worse if the loss is substantial, and probably long lasting to boot.  Any other result that keeps Trump in power is just bad all around, but, if so, 2024 should be the Progressive year in full.  I suspect they will win a scorched earth needing serious work.  Any other result that removes Trump will put everything on the back burner for a decade or two -- EW being the only possible exception.  I don't see her making it..