03-05-2020, 11:08 PM
*** 6-Mar-20 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan travels to Moscow to beg Russia's Putin for Idlib ceasefire deal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey's Erdogan travels to Moscow to beg Russia's Putin for Idlib ceasefire deal
****
![[Image: g200305b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200305b.jpg)
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday. Erdogan is the lamb being led to slaughter.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan traveled to Moscow today to
meet with Russia's president Vladimir Putin. At the end of their
meeting, they announced a ceasefire agreement for Syria's Idlib
province.
Before going into the terms of the agreement, let's take a look at
what each of the protagonists wants.
I heard a video clip from Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on tv. I
don't have the exact words, but it was something like the following:
<QUOTE>"Why does Turkey have troops in Idlib? Syria has
never done anything to Turkey. Turkey should withdraw its troops
from Idlib. They have no business being in Syria." (paraphrase)
<END QUOTE>
This statement made me laugh because it's so completely honest and so
completely typical of al-Assad's sociopathic, murderous, bloody
personality. Al-Assad has repeatedly made it clear that he wants to
take full control of Idlib province and get rid of the 4 million Sunni
Arabs living there, most of whom are children, and most of the rest of
whom are women. Al-Assad would like to push all four million of them
into Turkey, which would require Turkey to open its border to them,
which would be an economic disaster for Turkey -- and for Europe as
well, because they would continue traveling to the EU.
Or else, al-Assad would simply like to kill all four million Sunni
Arabs. When al-Assad says that Turkey should not interfere, he means
that he wants a free hand to slaughter all four million of them, by
any means possible, leaving their dead bodies strewn across Idlib, to
have their bodies and belongings to be picked over by those lucky
Syrian troops. And he's telling Turkey to just sit there and watch
all this go on.
None of this is really surprising. Al-Assad has said for years that
he wants control of Idlib and the removal of all the Syrian Arabs, all
of whom he considers to be cockroaches to be extinguished.
****
**** Putin's objectives in Syria
****
Vladimir Putin is the most dishonest of the participants in that
everything he says is a lie. So we can only infer his objectives:
****
**** Erdogan's objectives in Syria
****
Turkey is facing an existential crisis, with four million Syrian
civilians crowded along its border. If al-Assad is allowed to kill
four million civilians, it will be a social and political disaster for
Turkey for not stopping it. If al-Assad is allowed to drive four
million civilians into Turkey, that would be an economic disaster for
Turkey.
So that's Erdogan's major objective in meeting with Putin: Please,
please, please stop al-Assad's attack on the four million civilians in
Idlib.
Last week, Russian and Syrian warplanes killed 30-50 Turkish soldiers
in Idlib who were there as observers. This left Erdogan with no
choice. Turkey has now sent thousands of troops into Idlib to repel
the Syrian regime army.
On Tuesday, there was a fistfight in Turkey's parliament between
Erdogan supporters and opponents. According to one report, the
disagreement was whether Erdogan should be sending troops into Syria.
According to another report, the disagreement was whether Erdogan
should be meeting with Putin, since it was Putin's warplanes that
killed the Turkish soldiers in Idlib.
So on Thursday Erdogan and Putin did agree to a temporary ceasefire.
But anyone can see that this ceasefire agreement is a joke. Al-Assad
is bloodthirsty, and won't stop killing civilians in Idlib. Russia
sees support for Syria as being the way to be recognized as a powerful
player in the Mideast.
There are powerful generational forces at play here. Nothing is going
to deter al-Assad for long. Nothing will stop Putin from fully
supporting al-Assad.
In my personal opinion, Erdogan will be forced to full-scale war with
the Syrian regime army. That would lead to war between Turkey and
Russia.
Turkey and Russia have both made it clear that neither wants war with
the other, and yet they've fought major many generational crisis wars
with each other. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
)
There are various "compromise" agreements being discussed. These
compromises have to do with setting up buffer zones or ceasefire
zones, where Idlib civilians can hide out from Syrian and Russian
warplanes. We've had "de-escalation" zones before, but they're always
a hoax, since Putin uses them to cover up Russian atrocities, and
al-Assad simply ignores them.
****
**** European Union reaction to Idlib crisis
****
Erdogan has been begging European Union officials to provide help with
the potential humanitarian crisis in Idlib. In order to pressure the
EU, Turkey has encouraged tens of thousands of Syrian refugees to
cross the border into Europe. These are not refugees from Idlib.
These are from the 3.5 million Syrian refugees that are already in
Turkey.
Thousands of these migrants and refugees are trapped on Turkey's side
of the border with Greece and Bulgaria. Along the Edirne river, which
serves as a border between Greece and Turkey, there have been clashes
between the migrants and Greek police. Turkey has accused Greece of
using live ammunition against the migrants, a charge that Greece has
denied.
On Thursday, Turkey deployed 1,000 police officers on its border with
Greece. Formerly, these police were used to prevent migrants from
trying to cross into Greece. But now they have a different purpose:
Their job is to stop the Greek police from pushing the migrants back
into Turkey.
All this is on top of millennia of wars between Greece and Turkey,
dating back at least to the days of the Trojan Horse, culminating most
recently in the conflict over Cyprus.
So Turkey is facing a new conflict with the EU, is close to war with
the Syrian regime in Idlib, and that may expand to war with Russia.
In this generational Crisis era, there are powerful generational
forces pushing these conflicts and potential conflicts forward. It's
hard to see what might stop them, if anything can.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase, Nato,
Bulgaria, Greece, Edirne river, Cyprus
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey's Erdogan travels to Moscow to beg Russia's Putin for Idlib ceasefire deal
- Putin's objectives in Syria
- Erdogan's objectives in Syria
- European Union reaction to Idlib crisis
****
**** Turkey's Erdogan travels to Moscow to beg Russia's Putin for Idlib ceasefire deal
****
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday. Erdogan is the lamb being led to slaughter.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan traveled to Moscow today to
meet with Russia's president Vladimir Putin. At the end of their
meeting, they announced a ceasefire agreement for Syria's Idlib
province.
Before going into the terms of the agreement, let's take a look at
what each of the protagonists wants.
I heard a video clip from Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on tv. I
don't have the exact words, but it was something like the following:
<QUOTE>"Why does Turkey have troops in Idlib? Syria has
never done anything to Turkey. Turkey should withdraw its troops
from Idlib. They have no business being in Syria." (paraphrase)
<END QUOTE>
This statement made me laugh because it's so completely honest and so
completely typical of al-Assad's sociopathic, murderous, bloody
personality. Al-Assad has repeatedly made it clear that he wants to
take full control of Idlib province and get rid of the 4 million Sunni
Arabs living there, most of whom are children, and most of the rest of
whom are women. Al-Assad would like to push all four million of them
into Turkey, which would require Turkey to open its border to them,
which would be an economic disaster for Turkey -- and for Europe as
well, because they would continue traveling to the EU.
Or else, al-Assad would simply like to kill all four million Sunni
Arabs. When al-Assad says that Turkey should not interfere, he means
that he wants a free hand to slaughter all four million of them, by
any means possible, leaving their dead bodies strewn across Idlib, to
have their bodies and belongings to be picked over by those lucky
Syrian troops. And he's telling Turkey to just sit there and watch
all this go on.
None of this is really surprising. Al-Assad has said for years that
he wants control of Idlib and the removal of all the Syrian Arabs, all
of whom he considers to be cockroaches to be extinguished.
****
**** Putin's objectives in Syria
****
Vladimir Putin is the most dishonest of the participants in that
everything he says is a lie. So we can only infer his objectives:
- In exchange for supporting al-Assad, Russia now has two
military bases in Syria, the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim
airbase. When al-Assad begged Putin for military help in 2015, Putin
agreed to help, and received control of the two military bases in
return.
- Putin would like to split Turkey away from Nato. This is the only
reason that Putin is even talking to Erdogan.
- This is more speculative, but I believe that Putin would take
great pleasure in seeing those four million civilians in Idlib cross
over into Turkey, and then cross over into Europe.
****
**** Erdogan's objectives in Syria
****
Turkey is facing an existential crisis, with four million Syrian
civilians crowded along its border. If al-Assad is allowed to kill
four million civilians, it will be a social and political disaster for
Turkey for not stopping it. If al-Assad is allowed to drive four
million civilians into Turkey, that would be an economic disaster for
Turkey.
So that's Erdogan's major objective in meeting with Putin: Please,
please, please stop al-Assad's attack on the four million civilians in
Idlib.
Last week, Russian and Syrian warplanes killed 30-50 Turkish soldiers
in Idlib who were there as observers. This left Erdogan with no
choice. Turkey has now sent thousands of troops into Idlib to repel
the Syrian regime army.
On Tuesday, there was a fistfight in Turkey's parliament between
Erdogan supporters and opponents. According to one report, the
disagreement was whether Erdogan should be sending troops into Syria.
According to another report, the disagreement was whether Erdogan
should be meeting with Putin, since it was Putin's warplanes that
killed the Turkish soldiers in Idlib.
So on Thursday Erdogan and Putin did agree to a temporary ceasefire.
But anyone can see that this ceasefire agreement is a joke. Al-Assad
is bloodthirsty, and won't stop killing civilians in Idlib. Russia
sees support for Syria as being the way to be recognized as a powerful
player in the Mideast.
There are powerful generational forces at play here. Nothing is going
to deter al-Assad for long. Nothing will stop Putin from fully
supporting al-Assad.
In my personal opinion, Erdogan will be forced to full-scale war with
the Syrian regime army. That would lead to war between Turkey and
Russia.
Turkey and Russia have both made it clear that neither wants war with
the other, and yet they've fought major many generational crisis wars
with each other. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
)
There are various "compromise" agreements being discussed. These
compromises have to do with setting up buffer zones or ceasefire
zones, where Idlib civilians can hide out from Syrian and Russian
warplanes. We've had "de-escalation" zones before, but they're always
a hoax, since Putin uses them to cover up Russian atrocities, and
al-Assad simply ignores them.
****
**** European Union reaction to Idlib crisis
****
Erdogan has been begging European Union officials to provide help with
the potential humanitarian crisis in Idlib. In order to pressure the
EU, Turkey has encouraged tens of thousands of Syrian refugees to
cross the border into Europe. These are not refugees from Idlib.
These are from the 3.5 million Syrian refugees that are already in
Turkey.
Thousands of these migrants and refugees are trapped on Turkey's side
of the border with Greece and Bulgaria. Along the Edirne river, which
serves as a border between Greece and Turkey, there have been clashes
between the migrants and Greek police. Turkey has accused Greece of
using live ammunition against the migrants, a charge that Greece has
denied.
On Thursday, Turkey deployed 1,000 police officers on its border with
Greece. Formerly, these police were used to prevent migrants from
trying to cross into Greece. But now they have a different purpose:
Their job is to stop the Greek police from pushing the migrants back
into Turkey.
All this is on top of millennia of wars between Greece and Turkey,
dating back at least to the days of the Trojan Horse, culminating most
recently in the conflict over Cyprus.
So Turkey is facing a new conflict with the EU, is close to war with
the Syrian regime in Idlib, and that may expand to war with Russia.
In this generational Crisis era, there are powerful generational
forces pushing these conflicts and potential conflicts forward. It's
hard to see what might stop them, if anything can.
Sources:
- Syria war: Russia and Turkey agree Idlib ceasefire (BBC, 5-Mar-2020)
- Erdogan, Putin announce Idlib ceasefire after Moscow meeting (Al-Jazeera, 5-Mar-2020)
- Turkey, Russia Agree Ceasefire in Syria's Idlib (Moscow Times, 5-Mar-2020)
- Turkey, Russia agree on ceasefire in Idlib (Hurriyet, London, 5-Mar-2020)
- Russia and Turkey agree ceasefire in Syria's Idlib province (Guardian, 5-Mar-2020)
- No good option for Turkey / There is no lasting solution in sight for the Idlib debacle (Middle East Eye, 4-Mar-2020)
- EU 'strongly rejects' Turkey’s 'use' of migrants at border (Deutsche Welle, 4-Mar-2020)
- Turkey and Russia agree to ceasefire in Idlib (Axios, 5-Mar-2020)
- Syria's migrant crisis collides with geopolitics (Axios, 3-Mar-2020)
- Turkey, Russia reach agreement for cease-fire in Syria's Idlib (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 5-Mar-2020)
- Turkey, Russia agree on cease-fire in Idlib, Syria (Anadolu, Ankara, 5-Mar-2020)
- Erdogan and Putin Meet Over Syria (Foreign Policy, 5-Mar-2020)
- Russia, Turkey reach cease-fire deal in northwestern Syria (AP, 5-Mar-2020)
- For Putin, victory in Syria is personal as well as political (AFP, 5-Mar-2020)
- Turkey / Greece / Turkish police bolster Greek border to stop migrants' return (Al-Jazeera, 5-Mar-2020)
Related Articles:
- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey (11-Feb-2020)
- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib (09-Feb-2020)
- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria (22-Jan-2014)
- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase, Nato,
Bulgaria, Greece, Edirne river, Cyprus
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
