Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Apr-2020 World View: Continuing the lockdown

Earlier today, New York, Los Angeles and Washington DC all extended
their stay-at-home lockdown orders until at least May 15.

Donald Trump, who has said "the cure can't be worse than the disease,"
is pushing very hard to end the lockdown on May 1.

This seems completely unrealistic, and even May 15 seems unrealistic.
But perhaps certain kinds of businesses might begin to open in early
May. Grocery stores and drug stores are already allowed to stay open.
How about furniture stores?

The UK also extended its stay-at-home lockdown orders today, without
giving an end date. They announced several conditions that must be
met before the lockdowns can end:

• NHS must be able to cope without being overwhelmed.
  
  
• Sustained and continuing fall in death rates
  
  
• Sustained and continuing fall in rate of infection
  
  
• Testing needs to be ready and there has to be enough PPE for
  everyone
  
  
• Be sure that there's no risk of a secondary wave that would
  overwhelm the NHS.

The UK minister said that if you rush now to end the lockdowns too
early, then there will be a second wave of infections that would be
much worse, and would require even longer lockdowns.