Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

Civiqs polls, all fifty states:



Trump disapproval  55% or higher
.........................  52% to 54% 50% saturation
.........................  50% or 51% 40% saturation
.........................  under 50% but higher than approval
ties (white)
Trump approval...  under 50% but higher than disapproval
.........................  50% to 54%  
.........................  over 55%

Note that I make no distinction above 55% approval or above 55% disapproval because states in those categories will go 10% or so at the least one way or the other, and the distinction between 56% and 90% is moot in the Electoral College except for ME-02 or NE-02 not shown in this data. I make a distinction between 51% and 52% disapproval because disapproval at 52% suggests irretrievable loss, but 51% can be turned around (Obama did that once). Remember: the States elect the President and the People don't. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by running up huge margins in states like California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York that had no chance of going for Donald Trump. She was going to win 119 electoral votes from those states if she averaged 57% or 77% of the vote in those states.

I haven't seen polling from this source since February. A result along this line would be a victory for Joe Biden on the scale of Clinton in the 1990's or Obama in 2008.

If anyone wishes to see this as evidence of a Trump collapse -- you are welcome. Tip-offs on electoral collapses for an incumbent President include that states that are usually super-safe become less so, even entering the brink of competitiveness. This map shows Montana as a virtual tossup (which it has been only on rare occasions in Presidential elections) and Kansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi on the fringe of competitiveness at this point. Let's put it this way: when Massachusetts was in play for Eisenhower in 1952 or Reagan in 1980, then the Democrat was in big trouble.

The first evidence that I saw of a likely Trump loss in his re-election bid was that states that had been bare losses for him had swung out of contention following a narrow victory in the Electoral College. To be sure, whether Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire all go to Biden 49-48 or 65-34 mean the difference between twenty and twenty electoral votes that Trump can win without... but if something goes wrong for him in three significant states as such happens, then he loses. Such turned his chance of winning re-election about a 75% chance of a repeat to about a 40% chance of a repeat.