05-05-2020, 10:31 AM
** 04-May-2020 World View: Generational Dynamics predictions
The two examples you gave are not Generational Dynamics predictions
or forecasts. They're personal opinions. Just because I'm posting
Generational Dynamics analyses doesn't mean that I'm not allowed to
have personal opinions, just like you and everyone else.
When I give a personal opinion, I don't just leave it as some sort of
left-wing or right-wing ideology, but I always give the analytical
reasons how I arrived at that opinion. Readers are welcome to accept
or reject the analysis, or to do their own analysis of the reasons I
gave.
In the first article you mention, I wrote:
That was by no means a firm prediction, and I have no idea why you
interpreted it as one. In that article, I also stated the opinion
that the US would not abandon Taiwan. The timing of a Chinese attack
and the decision to defend Taiwan are political decisions and chaotic
events (in the sense of Chaos Theory), and cannot be predicted by
Generational Dynamics, any more than election results can be
predicted. But I am allowed to have an opinion about them.
In your second example, I listed the expert opinions on the spread of
Ebola and I concluded that Ebola would spread into a pandemic. That
article was a lengthy explanation of how I reached that conclusion,
but it was not a Generational Dynamics prediction. Once again, I
don't see how you could have interpreted it otherwise.
Here are some more opinions:
Once again, these are my opinions, and are not Generational Dynamics
predictions. Since my Ebola opinion was wrong, you should take that
into account as to whether you believe these opinions.
I have to add an explanation of why I gave 1917-19 above as the dates
of the Spanish Flu pandemic. I've noticed that Donald Trump has been
for weeks giving 1917 as the start of the Spanish Flu pandemic, and I
was repeatedly annoyed that he was making a mistake giving the wrong
date, but apparently nobody on his staff was correcting him.
Then I connected the dots to an article that I wrote a few weeks ago:
*** 15-Apr-2020 World View: 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic may have originated in China
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=51549#p51549
That article references a 2014 National Geographic article that says
that the Spanish Flu actually originated in China in November 1917.
So by repeatedly mentioning 1917 as the start of the Spanish Flu
pandemic, Trump is making the point that even the Spanish Flu pandemic
began in China.
I've noticed in the last two or three weeks that Trump is visibly
furious at the CCP and Xi Jinping for purposely inflicting the Wuhan
Coronavirus on over 180 countries of the world. This is part of a
significant change in US-China relations (and indeed China's relations
with the entire world) that pushes the world closer and closer to a
world war. (But that's an opinion.)
Trevor Wrote:> John, while your track record has been far superior to any other
> news source and analyst, which is why I read this site to find out
> what's going on in the world, it isn't perfect. Perhaps one of the
> biggest mistakes was anticipating the Clash of Civilizations to
> happen long before now.
> http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...110828.htm
> There are times I'm amazed it hasn't broken out yet, but we're in
> the 2020s and it's still yet to occur. I think we're going to have
> to crash economically first before that happens, as we'll have
> millions of young men who have nothing to lose by going to
> war. China in particular will have tens of millions with no job
> prospects and no marriage prospects.
> The second is expecting Ebola to become a massive pandemic.
> http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e140918
> Even with the nightmare scenario of it penetrating a war zone, it
> hasn't spread far, since it's not very transmissible. At least so
> far, I haven't seen any indication of it mutating into a more
> contagious disease.
The two examples you gave are not Generational Dynamics predictions
or forecasts. They're personal opinions. Just because I'm posting
Generational Dynamics analyses doesn't mean that I'm not allowed to
have personal opinions, just like you and everyone else.
When I give a personal opinion, I don't just leave it as some sort of
left-wing or right-wing ideology, but I always give the analytical
reasons how I arrived at that opinion. Readers are welcome to accept
or reject the analysis, or to do their own analysis of the reasons I
gave.
In the first article you mention, I wrote:
Quote:> "I've been following this issue closely for years, and
> there is absolutely no question in my mind that the Chinese WILL
> launch a preemptive attack to acquire Taiwan at some point. This
> is a highly nationalistic issue for the Chinese, and they will not
> be deterred. It could happen at any time, but based on the
> Pentagon report, the next 12-18 months seems pretty
> likely."
That was by no means a firm prediction, and I have no idea why you
interpreted it as one. In that article, I also stated the opinion
that the US would not abandon Taiwan. The timing of a Chinese attack
and the decision to defend Taiwan are political decisions and chaotic
events (in the sense of Chaos Theory), and cannot be predicted by
Generational Dynamics, any more than election results can be
predicted. But I am allowed to have an opinion about them.
In your second example, I listed the expert opinions on the spread of
Ebola and I concluded that Ebola would spread into a pandemic. That
article was a lengthy explanation of how I reached that conclusion,
but it was not a Generational Dynamics prediction. Once again, I
don't see how you could have interpreted it otherwise.
Here are some more opinions:
- The Covid-19 pandemic will be much worse than anyone
is saying, and will be as bad as the 1917-19 Spanish Flu pandemic.
- There will be a huge "second wave" in the fall.
- The only thing that will stop the pandemic will be the development
and population deployment of a miracle drug -- a vaccine or a cure.
The experts don't expect anything like that for a long time, in
mid-2021 at the earliest.
Once again, these are my opinions, and are not Generational Dynamics
predictions. Since my Ebola opinion was wrong, you should take that
into account as to whether you believe these opinions.
I have to add an explanation of why I gave 1917-19 above as the dates
of the Spanish Flu pandemic. I've noticed that Donald Trump has been
for weeks giving 1917 as the start of the Spanish Flu pandemic, and I
was repeatedly annoyed that he was making a mistake giving the wrong
date, but apparently nobody on his staff was correcting him.
Then I connected the dots to an article that I wrote a few weeks ago:
*** 15-Apr-2020 World View: 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic may have originated in China
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=51549#p51549
That article references a 2014 National Geographic article that says
that the Spanish Flu actually originated in China in November 1917.
So by repeatedly mentioning 1917 as the start of the Spanish Flu
pandemic, Trump is making the point that even the Spanish Flu pandemic
began in China.
I've noticed in the last two or three weeks that Trump is visibly
furious at the CCP and Xi Jinping for purposely inflicting the Wuhan
Coronavirus on over 180 countries of the world. This is part of a
significant change in US-China relations (and indeed China's relations
with the entire world) that pushes the world closer and closer to a
world war. (But that's an opinion.)
