05-07-2020, 06:42 AM
** 07-May-2020 World View: Crisis era climax
A generational Crisis era can only end with an explosive genocidal
climax of a crisis war that traumatizes the entire population. This
is necessary so that people on both sides -- winners and losers --
will be horrified by their own actions, and the actions of their
opponents, so much that they agree to finally stop fighting and take
steps (Recovery Era) to prevent any such conflict from ever occurring
again.
What we've seen in the past is that crises like pandemics generate
their own generational patterns that operate independently of the war
cycle. There is a similarity to the war crisis in that it must
traumatize the entire population and be so horrific that there is a
universal decision to take steps to keep it from happening again.
Then, 58 years later, there's false panic led by retiring people who
are afraid that the crisis will occur again. The two major American
examples in the 20th century are the Spanish Flu pandemic, which
triggered the false swine flu panic in 1976, and the 1929 stock market
crash, which triggered the false stock market panic of 1987.
Another possible example, requiring additional research, is the
Sedition Act of 1919, leading to mass extrajudicial arrests of
radicals and anarchists. This is similar to Lincoln's suspension of
habeas corpus, which happened 58 years earlier in 1861, and allowed
extrajudicial arrests rebels and dissenters.
At any rate, the interesting thing is that the concepts of a war cycle
saeculum also apply, in a different way, to other kinds of crises,
creating another saeculum that is independent of and coexists with
whatever the current war cycle is. They also intersect with the "58
Year Rule": a society enters the Fourth Turning exactly 58 years after
the crisis war climax, and a society experiences a false panic exactly
58 years after the other crises.
(05-05-2020, 11:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > True but irrelevant. David is wrong because Crisis wars are not
> driven by rationality in the first place.
> It was crazy for Japan to attack Pearl Harbor, and even the
> Admiral carrying out the attack knew that and said so at the
> time. It still happened. Crisis wars are driven by irrational
> actions during irrational Crisis periods.
> Even if a nuclear war would drive us back to the Stone Age, which
> as you point out it wouldn't, that wouldn't mean that it wouldn't
> happen.
> I am curious, John, if you think something other than a war could
> end a Crisis era. If Covid-19 were bad enough, could it
> substitute for a Crisis war?
A generational Crisis era can only end with an explosive genocidal
climax of a crisis war that traumatizes the entire population. This
is necessary so that people on both sides -- winners and losers --
will be horrified by their own actions, and the actions of their
opponents, so much that they agree to finally stop fighting and take
steps (Recovery Era) to prevent any such conflict from ever occurring
again.
What we've seen in the past is that crises like pandemics generate
their own generational patterns that operate independently of the war
cycle. There is a similarity to the war crisis in that it must
traumatize the entire population and be so horrific that there is a
universal decision to take steps to keep it from happening again.
Then, 58 years later, there's false panic led by retiring people who
are afraid that the crisis will occur again. The two major American
examples in the 20th century are the Spanish Flu pandemic, which
triggered the false swine flu panic in 1976, and the 1929 stock market
crash, which triggered the false stock market panic of 1987.
Another possible example, requiring additional research, is the
Sedition Act of 1919, leading to mass extrajudicial arrests of
radicals and anarchists. This is similar to Lincoln's suspension of
habeas corpus, which happened 58 years earlier in 1861, and allowed
extrajudicial arrests rebels and dissenters.
At any rate, the interesting thing is that the concepts of a war cycle
saeculum also apply, in a different way, to other kinds of crises,
creating another saeculum that is independent of and coexists with
whatever the current war cycle is. They also intersect with the "58
Year Rule": a society enters the Fourth Turning exactly 58 years after
the crisis war climax, and a society experiences a false panic exactly
58 years after the other crises.
