Generational Dynamics World View

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-10-2020, 02:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-10-2020, 07:58 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Truly laughable.  The reason you're so popular being "something of a
predictor" is because you make left-wing predictions whose purpose is
to "mesh quite well" with the average liberal in Massachusetts.  You
don't even care if your predictions turn out to be right or wrong.
And that's true of a million people who make predictions on tv, and
whose predictions are wrong half the time.

Exactly.

I actually made a living for three years making true predictions.  They weren't generational predictions, but they were system dynamics predictions about the behavior of large groups of people.

It was really tough.  What I learned was that people are far more willing to pay for predictions that what they want to happen will happen, than for predictions that are true.

I think this is just how the oracle business works, going back at least to Cassandra.

It works in reverse too.  Some people want to make predictions that go along with their ideology.  You don't have to be a professional.  You can see it in the ordinary partisan, in the guy predicting what he desires to see happening. Their ideology can make them not see a mistake in the prediction.