05-26-2020, 03:17 PM
** 26-May-2020 World View: Black Plague
I haven't researched that, but it certainly makes sense, and it would
be an interesting test of the assertion that some generational
patterns are affected by the per capita availability of food and other
resources.
One example where it appears to be true is the Irish Potato Famine
(1845-49), which several people have claimed completely replaced any
generational crisis war between the Irish Rebellion (1793-98) and the
Independence War (1912-22). That certainly seems to be the case.
However, in other cases, it would seem more likely that a plague would
postpone, rather than replace, a crisis war.
There's a related assertion that a crisis war can be postponed with
wealth. There are several "Fifth Turning" countries today, and some
of them -- Mexico, Tunisia, and Saudi Arabia -- have benefited from a
lot of oil wealth, and have used wealth to postpone any internal
threats of civil war. However, other explanations would have to be
found for other Fifth Turning countries, like Turkey and Russia.
About ten years ago I read Barbara Tuchman's excellent book, "A
Distant Mirror - The Calamitous 14th Century," which describes the
plague and the hundred years' war. I'm looking back at some things
that I posted in 2009, and apparently I concluded then, based on
Tuchman's book, that the 100 Years War war began in 1337, and was
barely interrupted by the plague, leading to the British victory in
1356 at the Battle of Poitiers, which is the crisis war climax for the
first phase of the war. This devastated France and settled the
conflict for a few decades. Then, the second part of the war climaxed
in 1429 with the Siege of Orléans, the decisive French victory led by
Jeanne d'Arc, which led finally to the settlement of the war in 1453.
That's all I have on the Black Plague. Higgenbotham, who posts in the
Financial Topics thread of the Generational Dynamics forum, has done
extensive research on the Florentine financial collapse in the 1340s,
and you could ask him if you're interested in that aspect.
(05-26-2020, 10:21 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > In the case of humans, this means that at regular intervals there
> have to be genocidal wars to kill off enough people so that there
> will be enough food and water for the survivors.
(05-26-2020, 12:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > If the underlying cause of Crisis wars is population stress,
> shouldn't that mean that in times of declining population, the
> wars will be milder or nonexistent?
> This question is why I'm interested in whether there were visible
> generational patterns in the Dark Ages, when population was
> decreasing due to the Black Plague.
I haven't researched that, but it certainly makes sense, and it would
be an interesting test of the assertion that some generational
patterns are affected by the per capita availability of food and other
resources.
One example where it appears to be true is the Irish Potato Famine
(1845-49), which several people have claimed completely replaced any
generational crisis war between the Irish Rebellion (1793-98) and the
Independence War (1912-22). That certainly seems to be the case.
However, in other cases, it would seem more likely that a plague would
postpone, rather than replace, a crisis war.
There's a related assertion that a crisis war can be postponed with
wealth. There are several "Fifth Turning" countries today, and some
of them -- Mexico, Tunisia, and Saudi Arabia -- have benefited from a
lot of oil wealth, and have used wealth to postpone any internal
threats of civil war. However, other explanations would have to be
found for other Fifth Turning countries, like Turkey and Russia.
About ten years ago I read Barbara Tuchman's excellent book, "A
Distant Mirror - The Calamitous 14th Century," which describes the
plague and the hundred years' war. I'm looking back at some things
that I posted in 2009, and apparently I concluded then, based on
Tuchman's book, that the 100 Years War war began in 1337, and was
barely interrupted by the plague, leading to the British victory in
1356 at the Battle of Poitiers, which is the crisis war climax for the
first phase of the war. This devastated France and settled the
conflict for a few decades. Then, the second part of the war climaxed
in 1429 with the Siege of Orléans, the decisive French victory led by
Jeanne d'Arc, which led finally to the settlement of the war in 1453.
That's all I have on the Black Plague. Higgenbotham, who posts in the
Financial Topics thread of the Generational Dynamics forum, has done
extensive research on the Florentine financial collapse in the 1340s,
and you could ask him if you're interested in that aspect.
