Generational Dynamics World View

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-20-2020, 12:22 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Modi's office posted his speech on the Chinese social media app WeChat.  However, Chinese censors deleted the speech, for "national security" reasons.  Chinese officials are apparently taking steps to prevent China's public from learning anything about the incident.

There's also the strange situation that media reports on Friday say that China has returned 10 Indian soldiers who were captured on Monday, but neither the Chinese nor the Indians are willing to comment on it.

This is certainly not the end of this story.  The barbaric actions by the Chinese soldiers indicate a fury and hatred of Indians that go far beyond a desire to take control of a small strip of land.  And Indians will be certain to seek revenge for the barbaric attack at some time in the not too distant future.

I have three reasons for war, and am dubious with the Generational Dynamics assumption that there is only one.  It makes for a really shallow analysis.

One of the three reasons is that war is a racket.  You should look for how the elites and leaders would make a profit from victory.  Possession of an isolated valley at the top of the world won’t get that.  However, the modern equivalent of the Spice Road passes near the disputed border.

Remember that Iran was one of the early countries contaminated by the virus?  This is because of the heavy interest China and Iran share.  Iran is attempting to modernize.  China is attempting to leverage their huge economy into foreign interests.  The result is a busy Spice Road.  It would severely influence a bunch of elites if the road were blocked even temporarily by a war that could be avoided.

China is trying to keep its people from knowing about the incident?  The leadership are trying to keep the hatred along the border from escalating?  Small wonder.

In the Tiananmen Square incidents, the troops the Chinese brought in had a healthy dislike for the soft rich capitol dwellers.  The leadership knew of this antipathy, and used it to be more certain of their use of an army unit mustered far from the capitol against the people.  While there are obvious reasons to station army units familiar with the region near home, I am wondering if finding troops not infected by xenophobia is suddenly a priority?

I can’t think of an equivalent reason for India to be concerned about preserving or gaining a profit.  I can see how an all out war with China and / or Pakistan would take considerable resources at a time when they could be used elsewhere.  I think they know about the Silk Road too, and figure they would not be allowed to push anywhere near that.  That would escalate quick if they tried.  An opposition party might well push what the people want at the moment rather than what is best for the country.  A regime change could result in some sort of face saving push.  We will see.

The third reason is propaganda or idealistic thinking.  If you think taxation without representation is tyranny, or that slavery is wrong, well, it might lead you to want to fight for principles.  I don’t see that being present here.  It is only the xenophobic reason that is driving this.

Or attackmania.  I don’t see fear as the dominant emotion.  Troops on both sides want at each other.  Describing it as defensive, as fearful, would be entirely wrong.

I for one would watch for the troops on both sides to be replaced by units mustered far from the trouble spot and more concerned with their own rears than proving their manhood by collecting scalps.

I am also confused a bit about the weapons allegedly used by the Chinese.  Metal rods with nail spikes?  Allegedly the Chinese were the aggressors and the victors, yet the Indians have a large collection of these unusual weapons designed to be lethal. Both sides describe only muscle powered weapons being used, when I would think both sides would have assault weapons, grenades, mortars, etc...  Something is not quite adding up.