08-13-2020, 07:46 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-14-2020, 04:12 PM by Eric the Green.)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
August 14 poll averages
Swing states slightly better for Trump right now than a few weeks ago.
National Biden +8.5
Arizona Biden +3.6
Colorado Biden +13.3
Florida Biden +5.4
Georgia Trump +0.4
Iowa Trump +1.2
Kansas Trump +8.9
Michigan Biden +7.7
Minnesota Biden +5.6
Missouri Trump +5.3
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +6.7
New Hampshire Biden +9.4
North Carolina Biden +1.7
Ohio Biden +0.6
Pennsylvania Biden +6.5
South Carolina Trump +6.3
Texas Trump +0.5
Utah Trump +11.0
Wisconsin Biden +7.1
The national poll average may influence how they are figuring their state averages.
Compared to 2016, after 3 and a half years of Trump in office, the polls have shifted only about 5 to 8 points nationally and in the key swing states. We don't know if this shift will hold until election day. If this margin holds, it doesn't seem like a "drubbing" on a scale that will force the Republicans to change their stripes, and they still have Tom Cotton in the wings to carry the ball.
If Harris is nominated in 2024, they will recover and Tom may become president. On the other hand, if Democrats decide to pick a winner, and the Republicans lose by an increasing amount, eventually a more moderate and stabilizing Republican candidate is possible. By the 1T, such a candidate might appeal. Sheldon Cox, the next governor of Utah, has a 15-2 rating on my scoring system. I heard him in a PBS interview and looked him up because I thought he came across as a leader, and not as a trumpist. So, if he gets a national profile, he may eventually rise to the occasion by the mid 2030s and bring his party back from the depths of the darkness it is lost in now.
August 14 poll averages
Swing states slightly better for Trump right now than a few weeks ago.
National Biden +8.5
Arizona Biden +3.6
Colorado Biden +13.3
Florida Biden +5.4
Georgia Trump +0.4
Iowa Trump +1.2
Kansas Trump +8.9
Michigan Biden +7.7
Minnesota Biden +5.6
Missouri Trump +5.3
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +6.7
New Hampshire Biden +9.4
North Carolina Biden +1.7
Ohio Biden +0.6
Pennsylvania Biden +6.5
South Carolina Trump +6.3
Texas Trump +0.5
Utah Trump +11.0
Wisconsin Biden +7.1
The national poll average may influence how they are figuring their state averages.
Compared to 2016, after 3 and a half years of Trump in office, the polls have shifted only about 5 to 8 points nationally and in the key swing states. We don't know if this shift will hold until election day. If this margin holds, it doesn't seem like a "drubbing" on a scale that will force the Republicans to change their stripes, and they still have Tom Cotton in the wings to carry the ball.
If Harris is nominated in 2024, they will recover and Tom may become president. On the other hand, if Democrats decide to pick a winner, and the Republicans lose by an increasing amount, eventually a more moderate and stabilizing Republican candidate is possible. By the 1T, such a candidate might appeal. Sheldon Cox, the next governor of Utah, has a 15-2 rating on my scoring system. I heard him in a PBS interview and looked him up because I thought he came across as a leader, and not as a trumpist. So, if he gets a national profile, he may eventually rise to the occasion by the mid 2030s and bring his party back from the depths of the darkness it is lost in now.