08-14-2020, 10:49 AM
I have seen polls giving Biden anything from a 6% to a 15% lead. The difference may be in sampling techniques or in the questions asked.
Trump cannot win if he is behind by 6% Figure that demographic change alone makes an electorate more D by about 1.5%, which if he did nothing to offset such by shoring up support by others or making inroads into the young-adult vote, would drop his vote to about 44.4%, and that would be a near-even shift nationally. He cannot win with that unless someone tries to take voters near the political center.
A bare Biden (270 to 290 electoral votes) win is on the the most pessimistic side that I can imagine (yes, 270 is possible with Clinton '16 + MI + PA + ME-02 + NE-02) for Biden, and the most optimistic that I can imagine is a scenario in which Biden wins everything that Hillary Clinton lost by less than 10%, which bars a further collapse of Trump support.
The calendar is President Trump's enemy.
Trump cannot win if he is behind by 6% Figure that demographic change alone makes an electorate more D by about 1.5%, which if he did nothing to offset such by shoring up support by others or making inroads into the young-adult vote, would drop his vote to about 44.4%, and that would be a near-even shift nationally. He cannot win with that unless someone tries to take voters near the political center.
A bare Biden (270 to 290 electoral votes) win is on the the most pessimistic side that I can imagine (yes, 270 is possible with Clinton '16 + MI + PA + ME-02 + NE-02) for Biden, and the most optimistic that I can imagine is a scenario in which Biden wins everything that Hillary Clinton lost by less than 10%, which bars a further collapse of Trump support.
The calendar is President Trump's enemy.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.