Election 2020

[Eric the Green]

(08-25-2020, 06:44 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-24-2020, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I myself will never accept that the USA post-1980 is the timeframe in which we should define right, left and center. The swing right that has held since then is simply illegitimate, and is WAY long overdue to be reversed and shoved into the ashcan of history. I am indeed a Boomer, and to me the 60s and 70s is indeed the real America, not the 1980s and since. It is not crazy at all to recognize the wrong right-turn we have made. And I do think we are going to see a reversal to one extent or another. It depends on who the candidates are, meaning who actually wins the White House, as well as on who wins Congress. So how far the swing left will go is up in the air. If Harris is the nominee in 2024, the Left will lose the election, the pendulum-swing will continue-- and will get more extreme between each term for a while.

Unfortunately, the real America includes racism.  Too many people cared more about keeping minorities down than keeping America up.  It is no accident that the Democrats lost their dominance as they chased the minority vote.  Thing is, things may have changed.  One cannot maintain dominance any longer counting on racism.  A 4T collapse of the old values is leaving the Republican grasping.

It seems being worried about lots of people being disappointed in advance of Biden has been cured by the convention effort.  On the other had, you remain disappointed in advance with Harris.  I guess you are being led to it by your obsession with astrology which results in your being out of step with the world.

I go by my research. So I wouldn't call it an obsession, nor a question of disappointment with Harris (rather it's disappointment that she was chosen). No-one with such a low horoscope score (4-16) has ever come close to being elected president. So, being a prophet, I can't go against one of my methods. And using astrology puts me in contact with what's happening, so that I often know what's going to happen. It's quite a place to be. As I have demonstrated here many times to those paying attention.

Whether you use astrology or not to tune-in to which candidates are the best at getting themselves elected, the fact remains (as the scores demonstrate) that the skilled candidates are the only ones who win. You can't just look at which values, ideologies or policies have favor with the people, to determine which way things go. The quality of the candidates has everything to do with this. Even Lichtman gives this at least two Keys on his system. If Reagan (score 22-6) had not come along, the whole shift to the right probably would not have happened. He was a great communicator and that made the difference. Harris is not, just as Hillary and the other losers were not. As I have stated umteen times here, even before I developed the horoscope scores, the charming actor deceived the people and that was the main factor in the shift to the right in 1980.

And the "world" already rejected Kamala's campaign. It's obvious listening to her that she's dullsville, and rather irritating to listen to. But that doesn't mean she won't get by as vice president. She just won't be of any help to Biden getting elected; but people don't vote for the vice president anyway. It's in subsequent election years that she could derail Democratic dominance of the White House.

Racism is an undeniable factor; at the least it moved the Southern whites into the Republican Party in the sixties. That was a major re-configuration that virtually created the red/blue state dichotomy. But, as John Chancellor noted in 1976 on election night, "they will vote for one of their own boys," and this helped Bill Clinton too. And this kept the Democrats in the center.

A few years ago, the tribes were not so tight that a red state could not vote for a Democrat, if (s)he was a skilled candidate. Barack Obama (score 19-2) and Bill Clinton (score 21-3 with Jupiter rising) were very skilled candidates, and they could shift states such as Arizona, Montana, Georgia, North Carolina and even Indiana, because they had favor with the nation. Jimmy Carter had a good horoscope score too (12-4).

This year, the scores between Trump (9-4) and Biden are within the margin of error, so I can't make a definite prediction based on them. The main factor so far is the poor performance of the incumbent, which makes the Lichtman Keys more relevant than the horoscope scores. Biden's score of 14-7 showed that he was not as unskilled as a candidate as many people thought, and that has proven out.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html