09-03-2020, 01:10 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-03-2020, 01:23 AM by Eric the Green.)
If we say Biden will lose the states now polling under Biden +4.3, including PA and FL, but still carries AZ (now at Biden +4.7 on fivethirtyeight.com), then the election will hinge on Nebraska's 2nd district, which last time I check was polling Biden +6.
If this happens, the chances of winning the senate seats in Georgia and North Carolina go down. Also, one or two net faithless electors could give the election to Trump.
270 to win polling averages Sept.2:
Arizona Biden +6.8
Colorado Biden +10
Florida Biden +4.3
Georgia Trump +0.2
Iowa Trump +2.0
Kansas Trump +7.0
Maine 2 even
Michigan Biden +5.5
Minnesota Biden +3.7
New Hampshire Biden +8.0
North Carolina Biden +0.6
Ohio Trump +2.5
Pennsylvania Biden +5.4
South Carolina Trump +5.0
Texas Trump +3.2
Wisconsin Biden +6.1
https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling
If this happens, the chances of winning the senate seats in Georgia and North Carolina go down. Also, one or two net faithless electors could give the election to Trump.
270 to win polling averages Sept.2:
Arizona Biden +6.8
Colorado Biden +10
Florida Biden +4.3
Georgia Trump +0.2
Iowa Trump +2.0
Kansas Trump +7.0
Maine 2 even
Michigan Biden +5.5
Minnesota Biden +3.7
New Hampshire Biden +8.0
North Carolina Biden +0.6
Ohio Trump +2.5
Pennsylvania Biden +5.4
South Carolina Trump +5.0
Texas Trump +3.2
Wisconsin Biden +6.1
https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling