09-11-2020, 12:21 AM
The point is to predict the likelihood of a win by one or the other at two months out. That means that polls from the time of the Republican National Convention or earlier are excluded in this effort. The point is to show that time matters greatly in a campaign.
Calculation may be messy soon because of early voting (including much absentee voting). Some people will have voted in September. Political realities involving COVID-19 may have forced the voting to be more by mail... and people may be seeing more in-your-face political advertising than is usual. Not many times can one say that two Presidential elections are really alike, so it is hard to say which one is the most unique. This one is weird for having two opponents in their seventies, and for having the definitive outsider (Trump) facing the most blatant insider that there has ever been.
Calculation may be messy soon because of early voting (including much absentee voting). Some people will have voted in September. Political realities involving COVID-19 may have forced the voting to be more by mail... and people may be seeing more in-your-face political advertising than is usual. Not many times can one say that two Presidential elections are really alike, so it is hard to say which one is the most unique. This one is weird for having two opponents in their seventies, and for having the definitive outsider (Trump) facing the most blatant insider that there has ever been.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.