09-22-2020, 10:06 PM
*** 23-Sep-20 World View -- China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan
****
![[Image: g200922b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200922b.jpg)
Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen on Monday (Taipei Times)
The Chinese Communists further escalated the tensions with Taiwan on
Sunday, by sending a mass of 43 warplanes across the Taiwan Strait,
crossing the historic "median line" or "middle line" separating China
from Taiwan, and entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone
(ADIZ).
The incursions came from multiple directions and involved a
combination of sophisticated fighter jets and heavy bombers, without
modern precedent, marking a significant escalation in cross-strait
tensions. Taiwan responded by scrambling its own warplanes, which
intercepted the Chinese warplanes and escorted them back in the
direction of China.
The Chinese Communists went even further when Foreign Ministry
Spokesperson Wang Wenbin claimed in a statement that "Taiwan is an
inalienable part of Chinese territory; there is no so-called median
line of the strait." The "median line" was established in 1954 to
establish rules to prevent Taiwan-China conflicts. The sudden
declaration that the median line does not exist is the latest flouting
of international law by the Chinese Communist Master Race.
Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen accused China of threatening regional
stability, and praised the "heroic performance" of Taiwan's pilots in
intercepting the Chinese warplanes:
<QUOTE>"I have a lot of confidence in you. As soldiers of the
Republic of China [Taiwan], how could we let enemies strut around
in our own airspace?"<END QUOTE>
The Chinese Communists have indicated that the intrusions are
retaliation for a visit to Taiwan by U.S. Under Secretary of State
Keith Krach last week to attend the memorial service of late President
Lee Teng-hui.
****
**** China's incursion strategy
****
According to an analysis by the Federation of American Scientists
(FAS), China has commited more than 4,400 intrusions into the ADIZs of
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan since 2013. There have been thousands
of intrusions into Japan's ADIZ, hundreds into South Korea's ADIZ, and
two dozen into Taiwan's ADIZ.
This is consistent with the findings of my 2019 book, "War Between
China and Japan - Why America must be prepared," in which I found,
after extensive research, that China is planning for and preparing for
a war of revenge against Japan, and a war of annexation against
Taiwan.
According to a FAS analysis:
<QUOTE>"Over the last decade, Chinese flights in the East
China Sea have become increasingly more sophisticated. Intrusions
in the early 2010s often featured single Y-8 early warning
aircraft flying near the Senkakus to the Miyako Strait. By the
late 2010s, Chinese flights evolved into more specialized training
missions featuring multiple independent flight groups of various
aircraft packages conducting increasingly long-range flights to
the Pacific."<END QUOTE>
These "training missions" are preparing China for its revenge invasion
of Japan.
With regard to Taiwan, the FAS analysis found: "Chinese air
provocations against Taiwan manifest in three ways: circumnavigational
flights of Taiwan, ADIZ intrusions, and violations of the cross-strait
median line. Circumnavigational flights are the most common
provocation, followed by ADIZ intrusions. Violations of the median
line are widely seen as the most provocative action and as a result
are rare." The FAS report is several months old, and the violations
of the median line are now more frequent and, indeed, China now says
that the median line does not exist.
The FAS analysis gives "four clear objectives" of China's intrusions
into the ADIZ's of other countries:
"On this last point it is important to remember that China not only
seeks to decouple security partners like Japan, South Korea, and the
United States from one another, but to also manipulate possible
domestic political cleavages to its advantage, such as those
potentially between Taiwanese citizens and the Tsai government and
between Japan’s hardline security establishment and more cautious
partners like the Komeito."
****
**** China's dual-track policy towards Taiwan
****
In 2016, Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),
led by Tsai Ing-wen, defeated the pro-Beijing Kuomintang (KMT) party
in the presidential election, changing the directions of Taiwan's
politics, and also changing the direction of China-Taiwan relations.
( "17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election"
)
Prior to 2016, when the pro-Beijing KMT was in power, relations were
very cordial, with the Chinese Communists indulging in the fantasy
that if they were nice to Taiwan, then the Taiwanese people would
actually want to give up their nation, and become a province of China.
That was never going to happen, but the election of Tsai Ing-wen as
president destroyed the fantasy for all but the most delusional
Chinese Communists.
According to analysis by the Shanghai-based Fudan University, the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has adopted a set of dual-track policies
towards Taiwan.
One set of policies are used to "tighten the noose on Taipei to
contain the pro-independence momentum." Some of these policies are as
follows:
The second track of Taiwan policies is for politicians and other
Taiwanese individuals who have expressed pro-Beijing views or at least
have been neutral on the independence questions. Generally speaking,
these are the same policies that Beijing applied to everyone in Taiwan
when the KMT was in power, but they are now blocked for anyone
expressing pro-independence views.
According to the report, Beijing's aim is to more closely integrate
Taiwan into China in economic, social and cultural fields:
<QUOTE>"[For example, in February 2018], Beijing unveiled 31
preferential measures covering fields of industry, finance and
taxation, land use, employment, education and health care. The
essential objective of Beijing is to integrate Taiwan people and
companies more closely with China.
Since the introduction of the 31 preferential measures, it is
reported that more than 2,000 enterprises with investment from
Taiwan have enjoyed preferential tax treatment on the mainland and
more than 100 enterprises have secured special financial support
under programs for industrial transformation and upgrading, green
manufacturing and intelligent manufacturing. Additionally, Beijing
annulled administrative restrictions on high-skilled professionals
and technical personnel from 134 listed professions in order to
attract as many well-educated Taiwanese as possible to open
businesses and lead a life on the mainland."<END QUOTE>
Reading through the two tracks of these policies, I cannot for the
life of me understand why anyone would think that either set of
policies would make any citizen of Taiwan want Taiwan to become a
province of China. How do the Chinese Communists benefit from this
nonsense? I'm always talking about the incredible stupidity of the
CCP thugs, and this looks like just one more example.
In fact, the published report seems to agree. According to the
report, these dual-track policies have produced counter-productive
consequences, including the following:
I've said many times that the Chinese Communist Party thugs
consistently follow one incredibly stupid policy after another. The
most disastrous policies since WW II were the Great Leap Forward,
which killed 50 million innocent Chinese will destroying the economy
for decades, and the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, which was so
horrific that the CCP is still pretending that it never happened.
Whether it's a policy regarding Hong Kong, the South China Sea, the
Uighurs in Xinjiang, or anything else, I've often said that I don't
know what the CCP will do, but I can guarantee that whatever they do,
they will make the situation worse.
In fact, even the Chinese Communists don't seriously believe that this
nonsense will make the Taiwanese want to become provincial citizens of
China. There is only one way that all this benefits the Chinese
Communists. According to analysts, referring to the massive
intrusions into Taiwan's airspace: "PLA drills this time are not a
warning, but a rehearsal for a Taiwan takeover."
In other words, the Chinese Communists are not trying to charm the
Taiwanese people. What they're actually doing is preparing to launch
a war -- against Taiwan, against Japan, and against the United States
-- and everything that the Chinese Communists are doing is to help
them prepare for those wars.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, China, median line, middle line,
Air defense identification zone, ADIZ, Wang Wenbin,
Federation of American Scientists, Japan, South Korea,
Democratic Progressive Party, DPP, Kuomintang, KMT
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan
- China's incursion strategy
- China's dual-track policy towards Taiwan
****
**** China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan
****
Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen on Monday (Taipei Times)
The Chinese Communists further escalated the tensions with Taiwan on
Sunday, by sending a mass of 43 warplanes across the Taiwan Strait,
crossing the historic "median line" or "middle line" separating China
from Taiwan, and entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone
(ADIZ).
The incursions came from multiple directions and involved a
combination of sophisticated fighter jets and heavy bombers, without
modern precedent, marking a significant escalation in cross-strait
tensions. Taiwan responded by scrambling its own warplanes, which
intercepted the Chinese warplanes and escorted them back in the
direction of China.
The Chinese Communists went even further when Foreign Ministry
Spokesperson Wang Wenbin claimed in a statement that "Taiwan is an
inalienable part of Chinese territory; there is no so-called median
line of the strait." The "median line" was established in 1954 to
establish rules to prevent Taiwan-China conflicts. The sudden
declaration that the median line does not exist is the latest flouting
of international law by the Chinese Communist Master Race.
Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen accused China of threatening regional
stability, and praised the "heroic performance" of Taiwan's pilots in
intercepting the Chinese warplanes:
<QUOTE>"I have a lot of confidence in you. As soldiers of the
Republic of China [Taiwan], how could we let enemies strut around
in our own airspace?"<END QUOTE>
The Chinese Communists have indicated that the intrusions are
retaliation for a visit to Taiwan by U.S. Under Secretary of State
Keith Krach last week to attend the memorial service of late President
Lee Teng-hui.
****
**** China's incursion strategy
****
According to an analysis by the Federation of American Scientists
(FAS), China has commited more than 4,400 intrusions into the ADIZs of
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan since 2013. There have been thousands
of intrusions into Japan's ADIZ, hundreds into South Korea's ADIZ, and
two dozen into Taiwan's ADIZ.
This is consistent with the findings of my 2019 book, "War Between
China and Japan - Why America must be prepared," in which I found,
after extensive research, that China is planning for and preparing for
a war of revenge against Japan, and a war of annexation against
Taiwan.
According to a FAS analysis:
<QUOTE>"Over the last decade, Chinese flights in the East
China Sea have become increasingly more sophisticated. Intrusions
in the early 2010s often featured single Y-8 early warning
aircraft flying near the Senkakus to the Miyako Strait. By the
late 2010s, Chinese flights evolved into more specialized training
missions featuring multiple independent flight groups of various
aircraft packages conducting increasingly long-range flights to
the Pacific."<END QUOTE>
These "training missions" are preparing China for its revenge invasion
of Japan.
With regard to Taiwan, the FAS analysis found: "Chinese air
provocations against Taiwan manifest in three ways: circumnavigational
flights of Taiwan, ADIZ intrusions, and violations of the cross-strait
median line. Circumnavigational flights are the most common
provocation, followed by ADIZ intrusions. Violations of the median
line are widely seen as the most provocative action and as a result
are rare." The FAS report is several months old, and the violations
of the median line are now more frequent and, indeed, China now says
that the median line does not exist.
The FAS analysis gives "four clear objectives" of China's intrusions
into the ADIZ's of other countries:
- to conduct training missions to prepare pilots for
encountering foreign air forces during long-range flights;
- to probe and gather intel on Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese
forces;
- to demonstrate air power capable of protecting its territorial and
security interests;
- and to apply coercive pressure to decouple coalitions resistant to
Chinese influence in the region.
"On this last point it is important to remember that China not only
seeks to decouple security partners like Japan, South Korea, and the
United States from one another, but to also manipulate possible
domestic political cleavages to its advantage, such as those
potentially between Taiwanese citizens and the Tsai government and
between Japan’s hardline security establishment and more cautious
partners like the Komeito."
****
**** China's dual-track policy towards Taiwan
****
In 2016, Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),
led by Tsai Ing-wen, defeated the pro-Beijing Kuomintang (KMT) party
in the presidential election, changing the directions of Taiwan's
politics, and also changing the direction of China-Taiwan relations.
( "17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election"
)
Prior to 2016, when the pro-Beijing KMT was in power, relations were
very cordial, with the Chinese Communists indulging in the fantasy
that if they were nice to Taiwan, then the Taiwanese people would
actually want to give up their nation, and become a province of China.
That was never going to happen, but the election of Tsai Ing-wen as
president destroyed the fantasy for all but the most delusional
Chinese Communists.
According to analysis by the Shanghai-based Fudan University, the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has adopted a set of dual-track policies
towards Taiwan.
One set of policies are used to "tighten the noose on Taipei to
contain the pro-independence momentum." Some of these policies are as
follows:
- Escalating military deterrence toward Taiwan, such as the last
week's intrusions into Taiwan's ADIZ by dozens of Chinese
warplanes.
- Adopting no-contact policy by cutting off all levels of political
communications DPP politicians in Taiwan with any mainland
institutions or officials. The CPP tolerated this contacts when the
KMT was in power.
- Using a variety of coercive techniques -- bribery and extortion --
to get other countries to end diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
- Preventing Taiwan from participating in various international
organizations, such as the World Health Organization.
- Blacklsting actors, singers and other entertainment industry
figures who have expressed pro-independence views.
The second track of Taiwan policies is for politicians and other
Taiwanese individuals who have expressed pro-Beijing views or at least
have been neutral on the independence questions. Generally speaking,
these are the same policies that Beijing applied to everyone in Taiwan
when the KMT was in power, but they are now blocked for anyone
expressing pro-independence views.
According to the report, Beijing's aim is to more closely integrate
Taiwan into China in economic, social and cultural fields:
<QUOTE>"[For example, in February 2018], Beijing unveiled 31
preferential measures covering fields of industry, finance and
taxation, land use, employment, education and health care. The
essential objective of Beijing is to integrate Taiwan people and
companies more closely with China.
Since the introduction of the 31 preferential measures, it is
reported that more than 2,000 enterprises with investment from
Taiwan have enjoyed preferential tax treatment on the mainland and
more than 100 enterprises have secured special financial support
under programs for industrial transformation and upgrading, green
manufacturing and intelligent manufacturing. Additionally, Beijing
annulled administrative restrictions on high-skilled professionals
and technical personnel from 134 listed professions in order to
attract as many well-educated Taiwanese as possible to open
businesses and lead a life on the mainland."<END QUOTE>
Reading through the two tracks of these policies, I cannot for the
life of me understand why anyone would think that either set of
policies would make any citizen of Taiwan want Taiwan to become a
province of China. How do the Chinese Communists benefit from this
nonsense? I'm always talking about the incredible stupidity of the
CCP thugs, and this looks like just one more example.
In fact, the published report seems to agree. According to the
report, these dual-track policies have produced counter-productive
consequences, including the following:
- Beijing's pressure in security, political and diplomatic areas
has aroused backlash from the DPP, and even stimulated pro-independence
figures to advocate more radical pro-independence initiatives.
- "Instead, the mainland's confrontational approaches in security,
political and diplomatic frontiers would undermine the credibility and
sincerity of Beijing's conciliatory gestures in economic, social and
cultural areas. The strained cross-Strait relations will inevitably
exacerbate the hostility and drive common Taiwanese to turn their back
on the mainland China, which will consequently make it harder, instead
of easier, to charm the public into favoring Beijing's ultimate goal
of unifying the two sides peacefully."
- Beijing's hardline stance undermines its efforts to achieve
reunification by "winning the hearts and minds of the Taiwan people."
The enduring standoff has already strengthened and deepened civilian
distrust and antagonism between the two societies.
I've said many times that the Chinese Communist Party thugs
consistently follow one incredibly stupid policy after another. The
most disastrous policies since WW II were the Great Leap Forward,
which killed 50 million innocent Chinese will destroying the economy
for decades, and the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, which was so
horrific that the CCP is still pretending that it never happened.
Whether it's a policy regarding Hong Kong, the South China Sea, the
Uighurs in Xinjiang, or anything else, I've often said that I don't
know what the CCP will do, but I can guarantee that whatever they do,
they will make the situation worse.
In fact, even the Chinese Communists don't seriously believe that this
nonsense will make the Taiwanese want to become provincial citizens of
China. There is only one way that all this benefits the Chinese
Communists. According to analysts, referring to the massive
intrusions into Taiwan's airspace: "PLA drills this time are not a
warning, but a rehearsal for a Taiwan takeover."
In other words, the Chinese Communists are not trying to charm the
Taiwanese people. What they're actually doing is preparing to launch
a war -- against Taiwan, against Japan, and against the United States
-- and everything that the Chinese Communists are doing is to help
them prepare for those wars.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
Sources:
- China vows countermeasures in response to U.S. high-ranking officials' Taiwan visits (Ecns, Beijing, 22-Sep-2020)
- China warns US on recent Taiwan moves (China Daily, 22-Sep-2020)
- PLA fighter jets cross ‘middle line’ of Taiwan Straits an hour before US official’s meeting with Tsai Ing-wen (Global Times, China, 10-Aug-2020)
- China threatens to 'wipe out' Taiwan president with war (Taiwan News, 21-Sep-2020)
- China denies existence of median line in Taiwan Strait (Taiwan News, 22-Sep-2020)
- Taiwan slams China's denial of median line as breaking status quo (Focus Taiwan, 22-Sep-2020)
- The Median Line in the Taiwan Strait: A Dangerous Loophole (Sentinel, Taiwan, 3-Apr-2019)
- Taipei Slams ‘Provocative’ Chinese Air Force Fighters Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line (Diplomat, 1-Apr-2019)
- Over The Line - The Implications Of China’S ADIZ Intrusions In Northeast Asia (Federation of American Scientists, FAS, PDF, 2020)
- Selective Engagement: Mainland China’s Dual-Track Taiwan Policy (Fudan University, Shanghai, 15-Oct-2019)
- Almost 40 Chinese warplanes breach Taiwan Strait median line; Taiwan President calls it a 'threat of force' (CNN, 21-Sep-2020)
- PLA warplanes featured in drills in Taiwan Straits ‘capable of seizing air superiority and command of sea’ (Global Times, Beijing, 20-Sep-2020)
- High-level U.S. visits to Taiwan annoy China – but did not cross the red line, says analyst (CNBC, 22-Sep-2020)
- China / Taiwan median line / Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin's Regular Press Conference on September 21, 2020 (China Foreign Ministry, 21-Sep-2020)
- Tsai pledges to defend ROC’s airspace (Taipei Times, 23-Sep-2020)
- PLA aircraft cross into Taiwan’s ADIZ (Taipei Times, 17-Sep-2020)
- US pushing surge in arms sales to ‘Fortress Taiwan’ (Taipei Times, 17-Sep-2020)
- Taiwan / China a threat to whole region: Tsai (Taipei Times, 21-Sep-2020)
- Taiwan Looks To Slam Chinese Navy Vessels With SLAM-ER Missiles Deployed On F-16 Jets (EurAsian Times, 21-Sep-2020)
- Taiwan has enough missiles to defend itself at present: MND (Focus Taiwan, 21-Sep-2020)
- China Ends ‘Median Line’ in the Taiwan Strait: The Start of a Crisis? (National Interest, 22-Sep-2020)
Related Articles:
- Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China (24-May-2020)
- US approves sophisticated weapons sales to Taiwan, despite China's fury (10-Jul-2019)
- Pro-independence rallies in Taiwan press for faster separation from China (21-Oct-2018)
- China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan (17-May-2018)
- US will sell submarine technology to Taiwan, as Japan launches first marine brigade since end of WW II (08-Apr-2018)
- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, China, median line, middle line,
Air defense identification zone, ADIZ, Wang Wenbin,
Federation of American Scientists, Japan, South Korea,
Democratic Progressive Party, DPP, Kuomintang, KMT
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
