Likelihood of a Biden win, each state and relevant district. 10/17/2020 (source: 538.com) Subtract from 100 for the Trump chance.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;-;8]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;2;8&AK=2;22;5&AZ=1;69;4&AR=2;2;8&CA=1;x;8&CO=1;95;8&CT=1;x;8&DE=1;x;9&DC=1;x;8&FL=1;72;4&GA=1;52;2&HI=1;+;8&ID=2;-;8&IL=1;x;8&IN=2;6;6&IA=2;42;2&KS=2;7;6&KY=2;1;8&LA=2;6;6&MD=1;x;8&MA=1;x;8&MI=1;92;6&MN=1;92;6&MS=2;12;6&MO=2;9;6&MT=2;11;6&NV=1;87;6&NH=1;87;6&NJ=1;99;8&NM=1;97;8&NY=1;x;6&NC=1;67;4&ND=2;1;6&OH=2;49;2&OK=2;-;8&OR=1;97;8&PA=1;88;6&RI=1;x;8&SC=2;12;6&SD=2;3;8&TN=2;4;8&TX=2;31;4&UT=2;4;8&VT=1;x;8&VA=1;x;8&WA=1;x;8&WV=1;1;8&WI=1;89;5&WY=2;-;8&ME=1;90;6&ME1=1;98;8&ME2=1;52;2&NE=2;1;8&NE1=2;6;6&NE2=1;79;5&NE3=2;-;8)
95 + saturation 8
85-94 saturation 6
75-84 saturation 5
63-75 saturation 4
51-62 saturation 2
v Biden more than 99% chance of winning
- Trump more than a 99% chance of winning
(blue for Trump, red for Biden)
tie (50-50) in white
Caveat: not all polling data is similar in age, and a lead of 8% at this stage is more crushing now than it was three months ago.
95 + saturation 8
85-94 saturation 6
75-84 saturation 5
63-75 saturation 4
51-62 saturation 2
v Biden more than 99% chance of winning
- Trump more than a 99% chance of winning
(blue for Trump, red for Biden)
tie (50-50) in white
Caveat: not all polling data is similar in age, and a lead of 8% at this stage is more crushing now than it was three months ago.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.