10-23-2020, 07:24 AM
Early voting results, one state at a time:
ARIZONA
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23...tes-431363 (Note: this link goes to the whole article).
1. Joe Biden isn't going to win Arizona by a margin anywhere near this. I expect about a 52-47 win for Biden based on polls that I have already seen, and polling has been steady in results in Arizona for a long time.
2. Predicting that newly-registered voters are more likely to be D (young voters or California transplants) the gap among those alredy voting is already huge. Representative, perhaps.
3. That Republican returns are up 29% indicates that Trump will get fewer of the votes that he needs on Election Day. The "29% up" consists of votes that he cannot get a second time. The Trump campaign really does have a get-out-the-vote drive this time... it is simply inadequate.
ARIZONA
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23...tes-431363 (Note: this link goes to the whole article).
Quote:Total ballots cast of 4 million registered voters: 1.1 million for which Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 58 percent. Trump: 42 percent.
Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 75,000. Biden: 57 percent. Trump: 43
2020 Ballots cast by sporadic voters (registered in 2016 and 2018 but didn’t vote): 41,000. Biden: 54 percent. Trump: 46 percent.
Democratic takeaway: Polls show Biden leading as well as Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly. Compared with 2016, Democratic returns are 74 percent higher while Republican returns are up 29 percent.
1. Joe Biden isn't going to win Arizona by a margin anywhere near this. I expect about a 52-47 win for Biden based on polls that I have already seen, and polling has been steady in results in Arizona for a long time.
2. Predicting that newly-registered voters are more likely to be D (young voters or California transplants) the gap among those alredy voting is already huge. Representative, perhaps.
3. That Republican returns are up 29% indicates that Trump will get fewer of the votes that he needs on Election Day. The "29% up" consists of votes that he cannot get a second time. The Trump campaign really does have a get-out-the-vote drive this time... it is simply inadequate.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.