PENNSYLVANIA
Total ballots cast of 9 million registered voters: 1.2 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 73 percent. Trump: 27 percent.
Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 57,000. Biden: 72 percent. Trump: 28 percent.
Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 88,000. Biden: 64 percent. Trump: 36 percent.
Democratic takeaway: Pennsylvania has slowly drifted from the president in polling and his handling of coronavirus came at the worst time for him.
Neil Oxman (D), The Campaign Group: "When Trump started acting more normally in the summer, he regained ground. But then you had this complete meltdown starting with the debate and him getting Covid and at that point ... people started voting.”
Republican takeaway: The rural areas of Pennsylvania where Trump dominated in 2016 are still highly enthusiastic.
Charlie Gerow ®, Quantum Communications: “There is an army of red-hat wearing folks that are marking their calendar for Nov. 3. They’re champing at the bit. You saw that with his rally in Erie this week. He has these gigantic crowds, enormous, in places where you wouldn’t expect to see a dozen people.”
Comments:
1. Except for some grossly-divergent polls . Pennsylvania has typically seemed like the sort of state that Biden will win by high single digits. Biden has been cautious in his campaign, trying to shore up key states while doing little to expand the national map. Trump has seemed reckless, which may be his only chance.
2. According to Nate Silver's "snake", the tipping point state that straddles 270 electoral votes for both Trump and Biden is Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania will be close to the national average in the popular vote.
3. It is imaginable that Trump could win without Pennsylvania, but Trump would have to nearly sweep the board of states other than Michigan (which he is absolutely not winning)
4. Biden has a connection to a key area of northeastern Pe3nnsylvania, the swingy northeast that includes Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Hazleton. Practically any Democrat will win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Trump has done little to win over suburban Philadelphia.
5. "Sporadic voters" who have already voted are almost enough to make the difference between 2016 and 2020.
Total ballots cast of 9 million registered voters: 1.2 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 73 percent. Trump: 27 percent.
Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 57,000. Biden: 72 percent. Trump: 28 percent.
Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 88,000. Biden: 64 percent. Trump: 36 percent.
Democratic takeaway: Pennsylvania has slowly drifted from the president in polling and his handling of coronavirus came at the worst time for him.
Neil Oxman (D), The Campaign Group: "When Trump started acting more normally in the summer, he regained ground. But then you had this complete meltdown starting with the debate and him getting Covid and at that point ... people started voting.”
Republican takeaway: The rural areas of Pennsylvania where Trump dominated in 2016 are still highly enthusiastic.
Charlie Gerow ®, Quantum Communications: “There is an army of red-hat wearing folks that are marking their calendar for Nov. 3. They’re champing at the bit. You saw that with his rally in Erie this week. He has these gigantic crowds, enormous, in places where you wouldn’t expect to see a dozen people.”
Comments:
1. Except for some grossly-divergent polls . Pennsylvania has typically seemed like the sort of state that Biden will win by high single digits. Biden has been cautious in his campaign, trying to shore up key states while doing little to expand the national map. Trump has seemed reckless, which may be his only chance.
2. According to Nate Silver's "snake", the tipping point state that straddles 270 electoral votes for both Trump and Biden is Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania will be close to the national average in the popular vote.
3. It is imaginable that Trump could win without Pennsylvania, but Trump would have to nearly sweep the board of states other than Michigan (which he is absolutely not winning)
4. Biden has a connection to a key area of northeastern Pe3nnsylvania, the swingy northeast that includes Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Hazleton. Practically any Democrat will win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Trump has done little to win over suburban Philadelphia.
5. "Sporadic voters" who have already voted are almost enough to make the difference between 2016 and 2020.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.