Election 2020

[pbrower2a]

[quote author=pbrower2a link=topic=407194.msg7689843#msg7689843 date=1603726649 uid=3398]


lead and likelihood of winning at one week before the election:

L  %W
0    50
1    60
2    67   
3    76   
4    85   
5    89
6    92   
7    94   
8    96 
9    97
10  98

Directly from Nate Silver's probabilities of wins in Senate races with one week left in the race; others interpolated

Numbers on states indicate chances of a Biden win; subtract from 100 for the chance of a Trump win.




Except that I do not have an extremely-recent number for Arizona,  Iowa, Ohio, ME-02, or NE-02, this is all that you need to know at this point. Trashy, falsehood-laden, garbage polls (you know from whom) do not count.

[/quote]

As I have said ad nauseam. politics is a timed contest, and unlike football, basketball, and hockey, it is the calendar and not the clock that eventually decides the event.

I saw one poll of Florida, and early voting was heavy enough and D-leaning enough that the votes that remained could not keep Trump from losing his adopted state. Florida will be close, but ... in an area rich in dangerous top predators, the alligator is in its death roll, the python is squeezing the life out of the victim, the cougar or pack of dogs has severed the spinal cord with bites, or the shark-bite is causing fatal blood loss to Trump's chances.

Nate Silver has simulations of random results for the 2020 election, but he seems to have stopped offering it. It may be that Trump chances have gone into the black hole. When Trump was projected to have something like a 13% chance of winning based upon him winning such states as Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Maine, and New Hampshire there were no possible Trump wins in which he lost any of the following states:

Arizona
Georgia
Iowa
North Carolina
Ohio
Texas

I now give Biden about an 85% chance of winning Iowa, which is far from where I saw Iowa (Biden could win it but everything had to go right) Iowa was not going to go to Biden unless Biden was winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Arizona looked like a harder win for Biden than is Wisconsin, but it counts the same (that assessment remains). Biden wins Ohio (which I consider a genuine toss-up) only if he also wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, which seems now to be a lock. Michigan and Florida are enough to put Biden over the top; North Carolina and Georgia both indicate a monumental loss for Trump. I see no reason to tell anyone that Biden wins Texas only of he is getting 400 or more electoral votes, but Biden has an outside chance of doing that. He must of course win Texas, which is very close to being a toss-up.

Except for Nevada (where Biden is up 6%, which is lethal for Trump's chances at this point anyway), every state that Trump lost in 2016 is going to Biden by at least 10%. Michigan is gone.