10-30-2020, 03:54 AM
In 2012 I predicted the final electoral vote, as well as basically everything that happened during the campaign. I should try again for the vote.
It looks to me like, if all goes as it should, then a few days after election day, the electoral vote will be like this:
Right now, It's 279 to 125. Trump has a solid core of 125 that is acknowledged by all the polling average sites and has not changed for months. The odds are he will also barely hold on to the two biggest of the four perennial tossup states this year, Texas (38) and Ohio (18), where he is still ahead today. That's 181 votes.
Besides holding on to his 279 votes, the weakest of which are in Pennsylvania, in which he is ahead by 5 points, and which the Court could cut down to 2 or 3%, Biden looks like he will eek out a win in Florida (29) and North Carolina (15), which have been fluctuating between leaning Biden and tossup. NC is iffy because of a possible Court challenge, but the case there looks harder to make stick than PA. So that's 323. And he'll snag Maine's rural district, for 1 more, making 324, and Arizona, adding up to 335.
So Georgia and Iowa are the hardest to call, the other two consistent tossup states this year. I feel that there may be enough people angry about the storm that destroyed much of the northeastern part of Iowa, with a very inefficient response by the Trump government, to turn Iowa blue. The congressional delegation turned blue in 2018, showing Iowans may have some buyers' remorse about their decision in 2016. Their red senator is in trouble too and is running a bit behind. But the polls have fluctuated in this tossup state. I'll call it for Biden, who at least is ahead today by .03, and who days before was up by 1.7%. That makes 341. Georgia has seen a lot of Democrats move in to its urban areas, which used to split evenly between the parties but now are trending up to 2-1 Democratic. So I'll say Georgia will go blue. Biden is up today there by 1.7%. That's 357 Biden and 181 Trump.
Total = 538. Well, we'll see!
It looks to me like, if all goes as it should, then a few days after election day, the electoral vote will be like this:
Right now, It's 279 to 125. Trump has a solid core of 125 that is acknowledged by all the polling average sites and has not changed for months. The odds are he will also barely hold on to the two biggest of the four perennial tossup states this year, Texas (38) and Ohio (18), where he is still ahead today. That's 181 votes.
Besides holding on to his 279 votes, the weakest of which are in Pennsylvania, in which he is ahead by 5 points, and which the Court could cut down to 2 or 3%, Biden looks like he will eek out a win in Florida (29) and North Carolina (15), which have been fluctuating between leaning Biden and tossup. NC is iffy because of a possible Court challenge, but the case there looks harder to make stick than PA. So that's 323. And he'll snag Maine's rural district, for 1 more, making 324, and Arizona, adding up to 335.
So Georgia and Iowa are the hardest to call, the other two consistent tossup states this year. I feel that there may be enough people angry about the storm that destroyed much of the northeastern part of Iowa, with a very inefficient response by the Trump government, to turn Iowa blue. The congressional delegation turned blue in 2018, showing Iowans may have some buyers' remorse about their decision in 2016. Their red senator is in trouble too and is running a bit behind. But the polls have fluctuated in this tossup state. I'll call it for Biden, who at least is ahead today by .03, and who days before was up by 1.7%. That makes 341. Georgia has seen a lot of Democrats move in to its urban areas, which used to split evenly between the parties but now are trending up to 2-1 Democratic. So I'll say Georgia will go blue. Biden is up today there by 1.7%. That's 357 Biden and 181 Trump.
Total = 538. Well, we'll see!