Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[Eric the Green]

(11-14-2020, 04:25 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(11-14-2020, 04:07 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Democrats, if the millennials vote, have a chance to turn senate seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina blue in 2022. The idea that red states would vote for a blue senator turned out to be way wrong. I would give up on that project for the foreseeable future. So it depends on whether the millennials have become true civics and will vote, and whether they vote Democratic in these 3 swing states in 2022. If the Democrats ever win the Senate, they will have to take down the filibuster because the Republicans remain a stone wall. Otherwise, the government and politics are no longer viable instruments to solve problems, and we have to rely on blue states and on the market to bring change. Democratic presidents may be able to decree some things if they can get past the Trump/Bush Court. Negotiating with cretin dinosaurs like McConnell may prove a fool's errand. If the Democrats can remove the filibuster, then they could cement their victory by seating 2 Democratic senators from DC and two from PR, and maybe two more from Guam/Pacific Islands.

Marco Rubio is almost as much an empty suit as Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Pat Toomey (R-PA). He will need to exploit the Commie-baiting rhetoric of Trump to save him, and that might be neither available or relevant in 2022. This said, midterm elections usually go badly for the Party in the White House. I see no reason to believe otherwise. Plutocrats flush with cash will fund any empty suit pol who believes as they do that no human suffering can ever be in excess in the name of elite power, indulgence, and gain. That is how the Tea Party came into existence, and that will rely heavily upon Trump supporters staying in the electorate in large numbers while Trump-despisers retreat from the electorate.

On the other hand, Millennial participation in the electorate is likely to increase as other generations shrink in the electorate. Millennial pols did not make much headway in 2020, but figure that the oldest of them will be 41 just as the Silent and early-wave Boomers either retire or go into that good night. (This applies to an 89-year-old Chuck Grassley, R-IA).   

I see no chance of beating Rubio; he is respected as a national leader, and he may run again for president. His score is back up to 13-7.

I know midterms are hard to win for the party in power. Usually it's the 6th-year midterm that is the hardest. But recently Republicans have been able to mobilize their trickle-down economics ideology against the Democrats to great effect, as in 1994 and 2010. We can only hope that the strength of the Democrats in the younger and diverse demographics will step up to their civic archetype and vote in 2022 as they did in 2018. Biden will not be able to get much passed in congress in the first 2 years. Whether that leads young people to be frustrated with him, as happened to Obama even though he briefly had a workable majority to pass a few things, or whether it means that there will be less legislation for older Republicans to react against, remains to be seen.

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Quote:I think separation is a good idea between red and blue, but if it ever happens, it may take the use of force by blue state governments to keep their own red areas within their jurisdiction. Otherwise, blues are urban islands with no agriculture to support them. Well, maybe they can still import everything they need. To me though, the contiguous red states have proven in this election that they are hopeless boobs from which nothing can ever be expected. They voted overwhelmingly for a conman narcissist incompetent tyrant, just to uphold their wrong values of guns, anti-abortion, self-reliance and xenophobia. I hope I am wrong, and that they wake up. I pray that they do. But I myself would focus my energy and donations on the 6 swing states from now on.

Sorry, Eric: this would set up a situation in which large minorities, especially of Southern blacks, would be at the mercy of racist white people who would be delighted to either re-establish Jim Crow practice or Apartheid. The best defense of the federal system is that it protects the rights of vulnerable minorities against the worst tendencies in human nature. We all know what life was like in Kukluxistan, and that could be how things go again in some states. 

I don't know what will happen, but I suspect that the solution for blacks in Dixie KuKluxistan would be to move out, going north and west. Many have done so since the 1930s. If they can conceive a new dedication to safety and law and order, there is plenty of room for Detroit to build back. If they move to upper midwest cities, which have declined in population, that would help solidify the blue wall and encourage them to join blue states nation. A new blue-state government would be willing to help them build better lives if these states join on, and the racists move south. Red and blue are so starkly separated now that separating seems natural, except for 6 or 7 states which could divide internally. I suspect there would be a lot of cross migration if we separate, something which has already been happening more slowly for decades. Internal divisions within states would be the chief problem with separating.