08-13-2016, 04:50 PM
Something on topic for once. This election can go anywhere at this point. Most likely case is Clinton wins, Trump comes in second, Johnson third and Stein fourth. Still, it's possible that Trump could win if he manages to perform well in the debates.
But here are other interesting possibilities:
1. Johnson makes it to the debates and wins enough states so as to prevent an electoral majority. In this case, the 12th amendment comes into play and Congress decides who is president. Clinton will still probably have the most electoral votes and will still probably be elected, but it's not certain, especially in a Republican controlled Congress.
2. Johnson and Jill Stein both make it to the debates and draw enough electoral votes away from the major candidates so as to prevent a majority. Once again the 12th amendment comes into play and Congress decides who becomes president, but this time Clinton doesn't have the most votes. I have a feeling Gridlock will ensue, and whoever is speaker of the house at the time may wind up president for a time (it could be Paul Ryan, or it could be his opponent).
3. Trump "goes too far" and is removed as a possible candidate before the election (maybe he is paid off and drops out on his own, or he simply loses nearly all of his support and his candidacy becomes irrelevent). Rather than put up another candidate the Republicans split and either get behind Johnson or Clinton. Clinton still wins, but Johnson wins a huge number of states and the Libertarians effectively becomes a new second party opposite the Democratic Party. This assumes the Republicans don't put up a replacement candidate in the last minute, something they may or may not do.
4. Clinton is removed from the election. This could happen as a result of an indictment (wikileaks releases proof of criminial activity, or she drops out for some other reason). Now the vote is split between Stein, Trump and Johnson. This puts Stein at a much bigger advantage since she would probably absorb a majority of the Democratic vote. Some of the Democratic vote would go to Johnson, but she will get the lion share. Jill Stein has a good chance of beating Trump in this scenario making the Green Party the new major Party opposite the Republican Party. Again, this is assuming the Dems don't put up another replacement candidate at the last minute.
5. Both Clinton AND Trump are removed from the Election. Now the race is primarily between Johnson and Stein. I think, in this scenario, Johnson is more likely to win. This seems to be the least likely scenario but it would be the best scenario, IMO. Both establishment parties are replaced by the Green and Libertarian Parties.
But here are other interesting possibilities:
1. Johnson makes it to the debates and wins enough states so as to prevent an electoral majority. In this case, the 12th amendment comes into play and Congress decides who is president. Clinton will still probably have the most electoral votes and will still probably be elected, but it's not certain, especially in a Republican controlled Congress.
2. Johnson and Jill Stein both make it to the debates and draw enough electoral votes away from the major candidates so as to prevent a majority. Once again the 12th amendment comes into play and Congress decides who becomes president, but this time Clinton doesn't have the most votes. I have a feeling Gridlock will ensue, and whoever is speaker of the house at the time may wind up president for a time (it could be Paul Ryan, or it could be his opponent).
3. Trump "goes too far" and is removed as a possible candidate before the election (maybe he is paid off and drops out on his own, or he simply loses nearly all of his support and his candidacy becomes irrelevent). Rather than put up another candidate the Republicans split and either get behind Johnson or Clinton. Clinton still wins, but Johnson wins a huge number of states and the Libertarians effectively becomes a new second party opposite the Democratic Party. This assumes the Republicans don't put up a replacement candidate in the last minute, something they may or may not do.
4. Clinton is removed from the election. This could happen as a result of an indictment (wikileaks releases proof of criminial activity, or she drops out for some other reason). Now the vote is split between Stein, Trump and Johnson. This puts Stein at a much bigger advantage since she would probably absorb a majority of the Democratic vote. Some of the Democratic vote would go to Johnson, but she will get the lion share. Jill Stein has a good chance of beating Trump in this scenario making the Green Party the new major Party opposite the Republican Party. Again, this is assuming the Dems don't put up another replacement candidate at the last minute.
5. Both Clinton AND Trump are removed from the Election. Now the race is primarily between Johnson and Stein. I think, in this scenario, Johnson is more likely to win. This seems to be the least likely scenario but it would be the best scenario, IMO. Both establishment parties are replaced by the Green and Libertarian Parties.