What the next First Turning won't be like

[mamabug]

Quote:Eric the Green

(01-10-2021, 12:54 PM)mamabug Wrote: Hi Eric.  I appreciate your response, but I'm not going to respond point by point as I think it would take me down a rabbit hole I'm trying to avoid.

Well, you just never know what might be lurking down in those holes

I've been trying to stay deliberately apolitical and stick to analyzing things from a more sociological perspective.  When the world is turning into Animal Farm, sometimes the best thing to be is the donkey - a natural Nomad if ever there was one.  

Quote:I agree that this best case scenario you mention could happen. My concern is that, if the double rhythm has any bearing on what happens, that this 4T may be more like the civil war 4T. The domestic emphasis and the greater division of the country in this 4T suggests it might not be easy for the country to come together. What I see though (and I also use planetary cycles as clue to what has and might happen, and I also agree with some of Bob Butler's analysis) is that an all-out total war like 1861-65 is less likely to happen today. I don't think you have to envision that the blue side would attempt all-out annihilation. That is not the nature of the Left today, and I don't know why you assume that it is. The Right wing, on the other hand, has a large group within it that, as we saw on Jan.6, would like nothing more than to assault and kill members of the other side. But the bright side of that is that there aren't enough numbers of them to actually win a fight, if the blue side controls enough of the levers of state power.

I accept that all out annihilation is the absolute worst case and it isn't the nature of the Left I grew up with and that is represented by those in the older generations.  I don't see it happening unless it turns from a Civil War scenario to a Revolutionary one.  There are definitely elements within the Left that want a real revolution and they have been gaining power within the political establishment.  4Ts are genie's in a bottle and I could easily war game out a scenario where, after the 2022 election, they somehow manage to gain power.  Biden's election did nothing to affect the unrest in Portland, and trust me, you need to be seriously committed to your cause to protest during a Pac NW winter.  I don't even like walking my dog in it.

Quote:but the Trump side really believe it won the election, and they really believe that the Left is a bunch of communists seeking to set up a new world order. 

Yes there is a lot of out-grouping going on in both directions.  Many on the Left are convinced everyone on the right is a racist, homophobic, reactionary who wants to instill a fascist regime.  

Quote:Many also think that the black lives matter protests and antifa are violent, when this Summer the spontaneous violent outbursts only lasted a day or two after unjust police killings and maimings, and also included provocateurs of various sorts.

Umm... Portland has been protesting (often violently) for so long I lost count of the days and the Chaz lasted three weeks (so more than a day or two) and resulted in 4 deaths.  I agree there were a lot of provocateurs, most of which had to do with the 'hands off' approach of local government.  If you tell people there won't be consequences for looting and burning things down, don't be surprised if a bunch of sociopaths show up to take advantage of the situation.

Neither side has a monopoly on violent elements or people who just want to watch the world burn.  That people in both camps are loosing their perspective on that and turning shades of gray into black and white is what makes this a 4T. 

Quote:So, no, it is not up to the Left how the 4T goes. That ball is entirely in the Right-wing's Court.

Nope, the left is controlling the levers of power so it is up to them.  They can act proportionately and punish only those who commit acts of violence or they can continuously contract the definition of what is allowable to the point where they can justify assaulting, imprisoning, and impoverishing anyone who is perceived to be against their totally reasonable and unobjectionable agenda.  (cf. non-active British loyalists during the Revolution).  100 years from now their descendants may look back and talk about how horribly they acted, but it won't save your next door neighbor Gustav from being tarred and feathered while his property is looted and burned because he thinks the British Crown is a heck of a lot better than living back in Germany so why is this 'revolution' even needed?

Quote:Depending on what happens, this might mean that the Left has to take some actions that might seem radical, such as putting more liberals on the supreme court, or making DC and PR states, and/or reducing or removing the filibuster. But that is a far cry from what you suggest the Left might do. Nevertheless, such actions might arouse the Right-wing to violently oppose them, and so might more gun control, higher taxes, health care for all, a green new deal, a more-lenient immigration policy, minimum wages and social safety nets, and so on. But these things may well be needed, and if the Right-wing can't accept them if they are duly and legally instituted, then that is on them, and if they act violently, they will be dealt with as needed.

Mutters to self 'Be the donkey, mamabug, be the donkey.'