What the next First Turning won't be like

[David Horn]

(01-11-2021, 02:29 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The most likely scenario I have already long predicted is what we have already seen now. The right-wing, out of power, seeks to take over the country violently, but they don't have nearly enough numbers to succeed. What needs to happen is certainly that the neo-liberal, libertarian-economics, pro-gun, anti-abortion, social-conservative, anti-immigrant, racist faction is defeated, but by triumph at the polls, as we saw in Georgia. That does not mean that "people like rural gun-owners, conservative Christians" at al are no longer allowed to exist or be Americans, but just that they are no longer allowed to set policy in the USA in their dogmatic and obstructionist way, and certainly are not allowed to take over in a violent coup. The Left in the USA is naturally moderate and can work out workable and reasonable compromises. So, no, it is not up to the Left how the 4T goes. That ball is entirely in the Right-wing's Court. They are unwilling to compromise now, and their goal is to block all progress, which is what they have done for 40 years. It is time now for progress to return, or our nation and civilization in the world will be destroyed, not by some actions of the Left, but simply by allowing current powers and conditions to continue doing what they are now doing.

Depending on what happens, this might mean that the Left has to take some actions that might seem radical, such as putting more liberals on the supreme court, or making DC and PR states, and/or reducing or removing the filibuster. But that is a far cry from what you suggest the Left might do. Nevertheless, such actions might arouse the Right-wing to violently oppose them, and so might more gun control, higher taxes, health care for all, a green new deal, a more-lenient immigration policy, minimum wages and social safety nets, and so on. But these things may well be needed, and if the Right-wing can't accept them if they are duly and legally instituted, then that is on them, and if they act violently, they will be dealt with as needed.

I think you have the essence down pretty well, with the obvious caveat that the reactionary right may resort to violence sooner than later.  They already assume that one is naked without a firearm, so all that's needed is a spark to ignite violence literally anywhere.  If that happens, the Right to Bear Arms will be challenged yet again in the Supreme Court, using the argument that the Constitution isn't a suicide pact--and argument that has prevailed in the past.  Will this radical court accept it?  If not, does the violence just continue to escalate?  Packing the court may be necessary but impossible.  So where does that lead?