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What the next First Turning won't be like
#83
(01-13-2021, 04:39 AM)mamabug Wrote:
(01-12-2021, 08:47 PM)Camz Wrote: Eh. I don't see Artists having any respect for conservatives until they completely disown and despise Trump and re-invent themselves keeping the decent core values they had in the first place. That's inevitable, I think. At that point conservatives will become tolerable and even accepted by the public again, they might even be more popular with Artists than progressive liberals. That won't last tho. Only for one turning.

And no, evangelical cishet white men are not oppressed and will not be anytime soon :/

You're sort of assuming there is some universal accepted standard of what 'completely disown and despise etc...' even means.  What values, exactly, would conservatives have to hold or not hold for the vast institutional authorities on the left to no longer ostracize them yet still allow them to object to aspects of the Democratic platform?  If those values are the same as similar ones on the left, what level of disagreement over interpretation and prioritization is allowable?  Would every conservative in the country have to hold/not hold these values?  Just the politicians?  Just the majority?  What if groups who hold to one of the banned values has the audacity to vote for a Republican candidate because we live in a binary political landscape, does that now make every Republican evil again?  For whatever your own answers to these questions might be, would they be the same for all of your peers or might there be a significant enough minority that answers differently and will form the nucleus of the next counter culture?  Most importantly, how well would your generation's answers line up with our judgment happy Millennials?  FYI, if you really want to get some food for thought on how liberals and conservatives can have similar yet different core values, I suggest Jonathan Haidt's The Righteous Mind.

I hope that it is possible to be righteous without being obnoxious about it. Bad behavior is not good for survival or even economic success. I can imagine the born-again leaders concurring with people of different faith and heritage that a culture that abuses children with distressing language and images is in need of a "clean-up, Aisle SOUL". The Golden Age of Cinema showed that we can have excellent movies without overt sexuality, without racism and religious bigotry, without lionizing bad people, and without mocking people for their religious heritage. Maybe Gone with the Wind has not aged well because of the ethnic stereotypes and the praise of the Confederate heritage... but other than that one can make excellent movies that appeal to all age groups, to all social classes, to people of every level of intellectual sophistication, and to every heritage. Self-destructive and anti-social behavior must be shown for what it is and what the consequences are.  We see tendencies in that direction. 

Maybe we get the vile words (which include racial, religious, and sexual smears as well as F-bombs) out of popular music. I'm not saying that creative people can't be nasty people (think of John Lennon and Michael Jackson in music) but they knew what lines not to cross.


Quote:The 1T starts with a further codification of the social norms that come out of the previous 4T.  During that 4T, as I previously mentioned, the bounds around what ideological/racial/ethnic/gendered/etc. sub groups are or are not included within the dominant group that receives all the benefits of the new society shift and tighten, leaving many groups outside who are subject to scapegoating, marginalization, and discrimination to various extremes.   Examples from previous turnings (in the US and elsewhere) include communists, racial minorities, southerners, British loyalists, Catholics, monarchists, religious minorities, aristocrats, Orthodox Christians, and so on.  

People on the losing side might learn their lesson and repudiate what got them into the nasty situation. Most Confederates recognized that they might as well (like Rhett Butler in Gone with the Wind) accept the reality and make the best of the situation. He goes into the lumber business and makes money off the rebuilding of Atlanta. In a sequel of Hogan's Heroes, the mustered-out Commandant of "Stalag 13" (who probably went through the denazification process easily because he wasn't much of a Nazi) becomes a businessman in the quickly-rebuilt Bundesrepublik. Anyone who remains connected to the discredited cause or has committed irredeemable crimes  that lost the Crisis War is in deep trouble. If you are such a thug as Champ Ferguson (Confederate guerilla who did such crimes as killing soldiers in a hospital), Kenji Doihara (colonial administrator of Manchuria), or Ernst Kaltenbrunner you may be an example for the ages. All three were hanged as war criminals.  Then again, murder is still murder.  

Mustered-out soldiers have good reasons to turn their swords into ploughshares once peace arrives; they still need to eat. The discipline of military life is a good model for complex organizations that need more to produce an abundance than to effect subtle changes in the ways in which people think.     


Quote:During the 4T, the attitude you expressed prevails towards those not in the dominant tribe, which results in those groups being excluded from the public square and facing imprisonment, impoverishment, and/or death unless they repent of their sins and leave their group (if they can).  The assumption by the dominant tribe is that anyone who does not convert, is intrinsically evil and thus any punishment they face is just.

In a 4T one can go from being on the brink of defeat to unimaginable glory in a relatively short time. One can go from lording it over subjected people to facing the judgment of those that one brutalized while lording it over them. If one is a minority associated with a brutal colonial power, as was the case with Japanese people in the Philippines, one may be obliged to obliterate one's prior identity or flee.   



Quote:Artists, as they enter adulthood, look around them and see that the rights and benefits they are told are necessary to a good life, all of which are secured for the dominant tribe, are not available to other groups and that strikes them as unfair and unbefitting a just society.  Once you have won a war, it becomes easier to be merciful.  They will start with the people easiest to empathize with (closest in proximity to the dominant tribe) and gradually push the bounds outward until the Awakening hit where the Prophets reach out to everyone and try to pull them into a new configuration which will form the genesis of the next Crisis (and so on, and so on...). 
 

The Silent were not the ones who experienced the Bataan Death March; they are the well-behaved occupation forces in Japan who see a people stripped of arrogant militarism and the desire to lord it over some Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere". In the aftermath of the war, mustered-out soldiers get the duty to return to the rice paddies to harvest the food needed to stave off a famine or rebuild housing to fend off a harsh winter. They see a far-more benign Japan than did their older brothers. The Japanese now seem like the last people who would invade and enslave others. What a difference a few months can make! That's how Crisis Eras end. To Silent soldiers, the Japanese are people of quaint customs -- not menace. A propaganda-laden cartoon like this that may have been good for mocking the Enemy for incompetence and criminality





becomes irrelevant very fast. (Stereotypes here are uggery, if you get the point). The world changes fast from a Crisis to the post-Crisis era time. "1946" isn't "1943".
    

Quote:The act of seeing people were left out of the social compact and telling the Millenials that they should be let in is what I meant by 'artists telling us how wrong we were to treat each other that way.  Passions are running high and, right now, there is no way to know exactly which groups will be excluded and to what degree.  It is too chaotic to even try to predict what might happen.  The only thing I can guarantee is that, in about 15-20 years a new generation will arise who will start seeking social reconciliation for old enemies, justice for the groups the Millennials are oppressing, and fairness for those hurt by the new institutional norms.


As important is that Idealist judgment that brought hatred of a monstrous enemy also fades out of relevance. The people on the losing side start to imitate the winners by sharing in the repudiation of the discreditable qualities of the recent past, whether outright crime (soldiers rarely choose what sides they serve) or of inflammatory hatred that suddenly became irrelevant.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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RE: What the next First Turning won't be like - by pbrower2a - 01-13-2021, 03:09 PM

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