01-17-2021, 10:25 PM
*** 18-Jan-21 World View -- Chaos grows in Afghanistan as American troops leave in hope of delusional peace plan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Chaos grows in Afghanistan as American troops leave in hope of delusional peace plan
****
![[Image: g210117b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g210117b.jpg)
A Kabul resident washes the road after gunmen killed two female judges working for the Supreme Court (AFP)
On Sunday morning, unidentified gunmen, suspected to be from the
Taliban, killed two female judges from Afghanistan’s Supreme Court.
The two were were driving to their office in a court vehicle, when
gunmen riding a motocycle ambushed them and shot them dead.
This was only the latest in a wave of assassinations across
the country. In many cases, the targets appear to have been chosen
because they're women.
This is happening as delusional peace talks are taking place in Doha,
Qatar, between America and the Taliban. Participation of the Afghan
government in the peace talks has been limited to nonexistent because
the Taliban don't want to talk to the Afghan govern. They simply want
to use the peace talks as a ruse to get America to withdraw its
troops.
In February 2020, Washington agreed with the Taliban to begin
withdrawing troops. The Taliban did not have to agree to end its
terrorist violence, but it did agree to "tone down" its violence. I
guess shooting only two female supreme court judges dead is an example
of "toning down" violence.
Donald Trump made a campaign promise of "stopping the endless wars,"
and so has been ordering the withdrawal of American troops faster than
had been anticipated, something that some American military officials
opposed. In August of last year, there were 8,000 US troops in
Afghanistan, which were cut to 4,500. After losing the election on
November 3, Trump fired his Defense Secretary Mark Esper on November
9, apparently because the latter opposed further troop withdrawals,
unless the Taliban met its commitments to reduce violence. On Friday
of last week, acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller said that further
withdrawals have reduced the number to 2,500.
Trump has agreed with the Taliban to withdraw all remaining troops by
May 2021. I assume that Trump's intention is to let whatever happens
happen after that, even if it means that the Taliban take control of
the government, as they had prior to 9/11/2001.
However, that will be devastating for the people of Afghanistan,
especially the girls and women. For that reason, president-elect
Joe Biden may be forced to postpone any further withdrawals.
Joe Biden has been hiding in his basement for the last year, and has
no idea what's going on in Afghanistan. According to some unconfirmed
reports, Susan Rice will work behind the scenes to make Biden's
foreign policy decisions. Susan Rice is an idiot, but I don't know if
she's stated a policy on Afghanistan.
****
**** Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
****
I've written many times that, based on a Generational Dynamics
analysis, there is no possibility whatsoever of a successful
peace agreement. I started writing about this in 2009, when
I predicted that Barack Obama's "surge" into Afghanistan would fail.
That prediction has been 100% correct so far.
The following is a summary of the Generational Dynamics analysis:
Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody,
horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought
between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The
Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign
fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in
Pakistan.
Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan
are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have
scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the
Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have
fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings,
dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side
performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they
have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill
each other.
Based on my work on the book on Vietnam that I'm writing, I was able
to extend this analysis in an article last year by comparing the
Afghan counterinsurgency efforts to previous counterinsurgency
efforts. ( "22-Nov-20 World View -- Afghan 'peace talks' threatened by terrorist rocket attack on Kabul"
)
Here's a brief summary of the extended analysis:
****
**** Iran offers Shia fighters to fight the Taliban and ISIS
****
Iran has recently offered to send Shia militias into Afghanistan to
fight the Taliban and ISIS in Afghanistan. These Shia militias would
presumably be withdrawn from Syria, and consist of thousands of ethnic
Hazaras and other Shia fighters previously recruited from Afghanistan
to support Bashar al-Assad's genocide in Syria.
This is certainly an interesting proposal. Since Iran and Afghanistan
are in generational Awakening/Unraveling eras, this would not lead to
an "explosion" as some people are suggesting, but it would lead to
local clashes between the Hazaras and the Pashtuns. The Hazaras are
already under frequent terror attacks by the Pashtuns, and those would
expand.
We'll have to wait and see if this goes anywhere.
****
**** Abandoning the peace talks
****
Since the peace talks under Trump were always completely delusional,
they're going to end one way or another without accomplishing
their supposed objective.
When the Taliban's spring fighting season begins this year, I would
expect to see a surge in terrorist violence, whether American
troops have been completely withdrawn or not.
The Biden administration will be under tremendous pressure to
cancel the May 2021 withdrawal, and probably will do so.
Here's some advice for the Biden administration from the Atlantic
Council:
<QUOTE>"The new administration should affirm its support of
the ongoing Doha peace negotiations. It should pause further US
troop withdrawals until it can conduct an expedited inter-agency
policy review. The review should include consultations with NATO,
the European Union, and other allies who have faithfully partnered
with the United States in Afghanistan. It should include a
re-examination of military drawdowns not only as part of a
political strategy, but also as they relate to assuring that
remaining US forces, diplomats, and other personnel are
secure."<END QUOTE>
This would abandon the existing peace agreement at just about the time
of the Taliban's spring fighting season. It is a prescription to
continue the status quo indefinitely, and with the increase in
Taliban violence, Biden might actually be forced to increase the
number of American troops again.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Doha, Qatar,
Mark Esper, Chris Miller, Susan Rice, Joe Biden,
Pashtuns, Hazars, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Northern Alliance,
Malay, Britain, Vietnam, Iraq, Iran, Syria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Chaos grows in Afghanistan as American troops leave in hope of delusional peace plan
- Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
- Iran offers Shia fighters to fight the Taliban and ISIS
- Abandoning the peace talks
****
**** Chaos grows in Afghanistan as American troops leave in hope of delusional peace plan
****
A Kabul resident washes the road after gunmen killed two female judges working for the Supreme Court (AFP)
On Sunday morning, unidentified gunmen, suspected to be from the
Taliban, killed two female judges from Afghanistan’s Supreme Court.
The two were were driving to their office in a court vehicle, when
gunmen riding a motocycle ambushed them and shot them dead.
This was only the latest in a wave of assassinations across
the country. In many cases, the targets appear to have been chosen
because they're women.
This is happening as delusional peace talks are taking place in Doha,
Qatar, between America and the Taliban. Participation of the Afghan
government in the peace talks has been limited to nonexistent because
the Taliban don't want to talk to the Afghan govern. They simply want
to use the peace talks as a ruse to get America to withdraw its
troops.
In February 2020, Washington agreed with the Taliban to begin
withdrawing troops. The Taliban did not have to agree to end its
terrorist violence, but it did agree to "tone down" its violence. I
guess shooting only two female supreme court judges dead is an example
of "toning down" violence.
Donald Trump made a campaign promise of "stopping the endless wars,"
and so has been ordering the withdrawal of American troops faster than
had been anticipated, something that some American military officials
opposed. In August of last year, there were 8,000 US troops in
Afghanistan, which were cut to 4,500. After losing the election on
November 3, Trump fired his Defense Secretary Mark Esper on November
9, apparently because the latter opposed further troop withdrawals,
unless the Taliban met its commitments to reduce violence. On Friday
of last week, acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller said that further
withdrawals have reduced the number to 2,500.
Trump has agreed with the Taliban to withdraw all remaining troops by
May 2021. I assume that Trump's intention is to let whatever happens
happen after that, even if it means that the Taliban take control of
the government, as they had prior to 9/11/2001.
However, that will be devastating for the people of Afghanistan,
especially the girls and women. For that reason, president-elect
Joe Biden may be forced to postpone any further withdrawals.
Joe Biden has been hiding in his basement for the last year, and has
no idea what's going on in Afghanistan. According to some unconfirmed
reports, Susan Rice will work behind the scenes to make Biden's
foreign policy decisions. Susan Rice is an idiot, but I don't know if
she's stated a policy on Afghanistan.
****
**** Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail
****
I've written many times that, based on a Generational Dynamics
analysis, there is no possibility whatsoever of a successful
peace agreement. I started writing about this in 2009, when
I predicted that Barack Obama's "surge" into Afghanistan would fail.
That prediction has been 100% correct so far.
The following is a summary of the Generational Dynamics analysis:
Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody,
horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought
between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The
Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign
fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in
Pakistan.
Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan
are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have
scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the
Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have
fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings,
dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side
performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they
have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill
each other.
Based on my work on the book on Vietnam that I'm writing, I was able
to extend this analysis in an article last year by comparing the
Afghan counterinsurgency efforts to previous counterinsurgency
efforts. ( "22-Nov-20 World View -- Afghan 'peace talks' threatened by terrorist rocket attack on Kabul"
)
Here's a brief summary of the extended analysis:
- Malay: Britain had a successful counterinsurgency in Malay in
the early 1950s. In that case, the civilians were indigenous Malays,
while the insurgents were ethnic Chinese. The counterinsurgency
succeed because it was possible to distinguish a civilian from an
insurgent simply by looking at them or talking to them.
- Vietnam: The insurgency in Vietnam could not be defeated because
it was impossible to distinguish between the civilians (in South
Vietnam) were ordinary Vietnamese, and the insurgents (from North
Vietnam) were also ordinary Vietnamese, and so it was impossible to
easily distinguish the civilians from the insurgents. For this
reason, the counterinsurgency effort failed.
- Iraq: President George Bush's "surge" strategy won the Iraq war
because the insurgents were quite distinguishable from Iraqi
civilians. The insurgent group "al-Qaeda in Iraq" consisted almost
entirely of fighters imported from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Syria.
They were not Iraqis, and the Iraqis hated them. That's why the Iraq
war was winnable, and the counterinsurgency succeeded. (See
"Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from April, 2007.)
- Afghanistan: The Afghan insurgency cannot be defeated because
ordinary civilians are ethnic Pashtuns, and so are the Taliban. So
the Afghan counterinsurgency must fail.
****
**** Iran offers Shia fighters to fight the Taliban and ISIS
****
Iran has recently offered to send Shia militias into Afghanistan to
fight the Taliban and ISIS in Afghanistan. These Shia militias would
presumably be withdrawn from Syria, and consist of thousands of ethnic
Hazaras and other Shia fighters previously recruited from Afghanistan
to support Bashar al-Assad's genocide in Syria.
This is certainly an interesting proposal. Since Iran and Afghanistan
are in generational Awakening/Unraveling eras, this would not lead to
an "explosion" as some people are suggesting, but it would lead to
local clashes between the Hazaras and the Pashtuns. The Hazaras are
already under frequent terror attacks by the Pashtuns, and those would
expand.
We'll have to wait and see if this goes anywhere.
****
**** Abandoning the peace talks
****
Since the peace talks under Trump were always completely delusional,
they're going to end one way or another without accomplishing
their supposed objective.
When the Taliban's spring fighting season begins this year, I would
expect to see a surge in terrorist violence, whether American
troops have been completely withdrawn or not.
The Biden administration will be under tremendous pressure to
cancel the May 2021 withdrawal, and probably will do so.
Here's some advice for the Biden administration from the Atlantic
Council:
<QUOTE>"The new administration should affirm its support of
the ongoing Doha peace negotiations. It should pause further US
troop withdrawals until it can conduct an expedited inter-agency
policy review. The review should include consultations with NATO,
the European Union, and other allies who have faithfully partnered
with the United States in Afghanistan. It should include a
re-examination of military drawdowns not only as part of a
political strategy, but also as they relate to assuring that
remaining US forces, diplomats, and other personnel are
secure."<END QUOTE>
This would abandon the existing peace agreement at just about the time
of the Taliban's spring fighting season. It is a prescription to
continue the status quo indefinitely, and with the increase in
Taliban violence, Biden might actually be forced to increase the
number of American troops again.
Sources:
- U.S. Completes Troop-Level Drawdown in Afghanistan, Iraq (Dept. of Defense, 15-Jan-2021)
- Two female judges shot dead in Kabul as wave of killings continues (Guardian, London, 17-Jan-2021)
- Gunmen kill two female Supreme Court judges in Afghanistan: police (Reuters, 17-Jan-2021)
- PUBG / A popular video game sparks a moral panic in Afghanistan (Economist, 14-Jan-2021)
- Insider attack: A dozen Afghan militiamen killed by colleagues (Al-Jazeera, 16-Jan-2021)
- Airstrike in Afghanistan bombs Taliban target. Now 18 members of one family feared dead. (NBC, 16-Jan-2021)
- US down to 2,500 troops each in Afghanistan and Iraq, as ordered by Trump (Military Times, 15-Jan-2021)
- US troop levels cut to 2,500 each in Afghanistan and Iraq, lowest mark in two decades (France24, 15-Jan-2021)
- As Ordered by Trump, US Down to 2,500 Troops in Afghanistan (VOA, 15-Jan-2021)
- U.S. troops in Afghanistan now down to 2,500, lowest since 2001: Pentagon (Reuters, 15-Jan-2021)
- Talk or fight? In Afghanistan, signs Taliban now prefer victory. (CS Monitor, 14-Jan-2021)
- The way forward in Afghanistan: How Biden can achieve sustainable peace and US security (Atlantic Council, 13-Jan-2021)
- US policy toward Afghanistan - consider the trade-offs including with other policy areas (Brookings, 12-Jan-2021)
- Iran’s Suggestion of Using Shiite Fighters in Afghanistan Seen as Risky (VOA, 14-Jan-2021)
Related Articles:
- Afghan 'peace talks' threatened by terrorist rocket attack on Kabul (22-Nov-2020)
- Why we can never prevail in Afghanistan (16-Dec-2019)
- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan (16-Feb-2020)
- Donald Trump fires John Bolton over Afghanistan 'Peace Negotiations' (11-Sep-2019)
- Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans (14-Jan-2007)
- New head of US Central Command says Afghanistan war is unsustainable (06-Dec-2018)
- Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (01-Apr-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Doha, Qatar,
Mark Esper, Chris Miller, Susan Rice, Joe Biden,
Pashtuns, Hazars, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Northern Alliance,
Malay, Britain, Vietnam, Iraq, Iran, Syria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
