01-19-2021, 04:47 PM
(01-17-2021, 03:07 PM)David Horn Wrote:(01-16-2021, 04:46 PM)mamabug Wrote:(01-15-2021, 07:00 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: This is an aggregation of polling results. Multiple pollsters are involved, but not the most sympathetic ones to Trump (Rasmussen and Trafalgar) or the one most hostile (Quinnipiac).
Enough said.
Notice, though, he still has 40% approval. The shift from 'approve' to 'disapprove' I would guess could wholly coming from the center-to-moderate right. Speaking from what I've heard on that side, they disapprove of Trump now because they want him to get out of the way. They see his continued participation in the public sphere as being a way for media and democrats to marginalize any objections to their agenda.
That more disapprove of Trump, does not necessarily correlate to people disowning Republican ideas. For those who seem to think that Trump is the sum total of what this Crisis is about, defeating him does not mean automatic buy in to continued government takeover of the economy and imposition of intersectional ideology. That is why I maintain this Crisis has not yet hit a point where it can be said to be resulting in a renewed social fabric that is the primary benefit of the High.
I agree with most of this. The GOP is between a rock and hard place on what to do with Trump. They know they can't keep him, and they can't throw him overboard either. They would prefer to have the Dems do it for them, then they can act all incensed, while quietly cheering on the move. My guesses for:
- Impeachment and conviction -- my guess: Trump stinks-up the 2022 race, but recedes in the 2024 time frame unless he's convicted of a crime that his own followers can't stomach. That makes it a Biden race to win or lose.
- No conviction -- Trump continues to stink-up the political atmosphere, and the GOP takes a beating in 2022 and less in 2024.
The polls that I have seen after the insurrection show his approval ratings sinking into the low thirties.
As a rule I do not predict breaking news or trends in approval ratings, and ordinarily I see the past as precedent for the future in such things as war and politics. In war, the side that runs out of troops collapses; just think of the Battle of Petersburg, a veritable stalemate until the Confederacy ran out of soldiers to defend Richmond, and after which General Robert E. Lee was caught in a trap at Appomattox.
Ordinarily I would expect Democrats to lose big in 2022 because midterm elections ordinarily go against the Party that has the Presidency. Illustrating this tendency, I look at two Presidents similar in ability and temperament, with scandal-free and disaster-free administrations, but opposite Parties (Eisenhower and Obama, and whose Parties lost badly in two midterm elections.
Should I expect anything other than a Republican wave in 2022? The big difference will be that the stench of Donald J. Trump will still be upon the party of the most recent ex-President. I can't imagine anything redeeming the effect of Donald Trump upon the 2022 election. Still, I expect Republicans to do everything to stop any effort at political reform unless that reform has as its purpose the enhancement of the ability of the super-rich to get what they want. Investments in the political sector can be far more remunerative than investments in plant and equipment -- especially since plant and equipment create jobs.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.