08-22-2016, 09:44 PM
*** 23-Aug-16 World View -- Turkey begins to fully enter the war in Syria militarily
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** International Criminal Court gets conviction for 'cultural genocide' in Timbuktu Mali
****
![[Image: g120403c.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g120403c.jpg)
Historic mosque and museum in Timbuktu, Mali
A jihadist, Ahmad al-Faqi al-Mahdi, pleaded guilty on Monday to the
crime of "cultural genocide" in the International Criminal Court for
destroying religious monuments in the ancient city of Timbuktu in
Mali.
The desecration of Timbuktu by al-Qaeda was a big story in 2012.
Founded between the 5th and 11th centuries by Tuareg desert nomads,
Timbuktu became a meeting point between north, south and west Africa
and a melting pot of black Africans, Berber, Arab and Tuareg desert
nomads. The trade of gold, salt, ivory and books made it the richest
region in west Africa and it attracted scholars, engineers and
architects from around Africa, growing into a major center of Islamic
culture by the 14th century. Timbuktu is home to nearly 100,000
ancient manuscripts, some dating to the 12th century, preserved in
family homes and private libraries under the care of religious
scholars.
In 2012, the al-Qaeda linked terror group, Ansar Dine (Defenders of
Faith), were using shovels, hoes and chisels to destroy Sufi Muslim
shrines and mosques that were built centuries ago. It was feared that
Ansar Dine would also destroy the 100,000 ancient manuscripts. As a
result, many citizens of Timbuktu carefully hid any manuscripts they
had in their possession. Many were also sent to Bamako, Mali's
capital city, where they would be safe from Ansar Dine.
According to the charges brought by the ICC against Ahmad Al Faqi Al
Mahdi:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is alleged that, until September 2012, he was the
> head of the "Hisbah" (body set up to uphold public morals and
> prevent vice), set up in April 2012. He was also associated with
> the work of the Islamic Court of Timbuktu and participated in
> executing its decisions. It is alleged that he was involved in the
> destruction of the buildings mentioned in the
> charge."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
On Monday, al-Mahdi pleaded guilty to the crimes he was charged
with, and said the following at his trial:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is also my hope that the years I will spend in
> prison will be source to purge the evil spirit that took me and I
> will keep my hopes high that the people will be able to forgive
> me.
>
> I would like to give a piece of advice to the Muslims in the world
> not to get involved in the kind of acts that I did because it will
> give no good to humanity."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Al-Mahdi could get a sentence of up to 30 years, but it's expected
that he'll be sentenced to less because he confessed to the crimes.
The ICC considers this to be a historic trial because it was the first
time that a jihadist was charged by the ICC, and it's the first time
that the principal charge was destruction of cultural property.
CNN
and Swiss Info and ICC Case Information Sheet (PDF)
****
**** In an embarrassing turnaround, Russia removes its bombers from Iran
****
Last week we reported that Russia's bombers would be traveling
from the Hamadan airbase in Iran, across Iraq airspace for
bombing raids into Syria. This was considered an embarrassment
to the US because US military had not been notified in advance,
and had to approve travel through Iraq's airspace. ( "17-Aug-16 World View -- Russia-Iran airbase agreement further isolates Saudi Arabia"
)
Russia bragged that they would be permitted to use Iran's airbase "as
long as required." Well, "as long as required" apparently ended on
Monday, when use of the airbase came to an abrupt halt because it was
no longer required, according to Russia's Defense Ministry spokesman:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Russian military aircraft that took part in the
> operation of conducting air strikes from Iran's Hamadan air base
> on terrorist targets in Syria have successfully completed all
> tasks.
>
> Further use of the Hamadan air base in the Islamic Republic of
> Iran by the Russian Aerospace Forces will be carried out on the
> basis of mutual agreements to fight terrorism and depending on the
> prevailing circumstances in Syria."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Iran’s Defense Minister Gen. Hossein Dehghan blamed Russia for
bragging, saying that it was "a kind of show off and ungentlemanly."
He said in an interview:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Naturally the Russians want to show that they are a
> superpower and an influential country and are present in all
> regional and global affairs. ... Of course grandstanding and
> incivility were behind the announcement."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Allowing Russia to use the airbase was controversial within Iran's
government. Hossein Ruyvaran, an Iranian political analyst who
teaches at the University of Tehran, was quoted as saying:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The chief issue being discussed comes down to this:
> does allowing the Russian Aerospace forces use the capabilities of
> this airbase violate the Article 14b of the Iranian Constitution
> or not? Because according to this article, any form of leasing an
> airfield to a foreign power to be used as an airbase – even for a
> peacekeeping mission – is forbidden."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This ties into some analysis that I've done in the past regarding
whether Iran would use a nuclear weapon on Israel. If you look at
Iran's history in the last century, including its two generational
crisis wars, the Constitutional Revolution of the 1900s decade and the
Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, combined with statements that they've
made, you see that they take pride in never attacking anyone else,
except in self-defense. Thus, I consider it almost impossible for
Iran to preemptively use a nuclear weapon on Israel, unless Israel
attacked first.
That doesn't make Iran the "good guy." Quite the contrary. Iran is
perfectly happy to do things like sponsoring terrorist acts around the
world through its puppet terrorist group Hezbollah, or supplying arms
to Palestinians for use against Israel, or fighting a proxy war in
Yemen, or supplying weapons and fighters to Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad for use in his genocidal extermination campaign on Sunnis,
making them war criminals. But the Iranian leaders still think that
they're wonderful people rather than war criminals because they don't
invade anyone.
So I see this Russian use of Iran's Hamadan airbase as crossing a red
line that challenges this "good guy" self-image, at least temporarily.
There will now be a debate in Iran's government that can go either
way. It's possible that Russia may again be permitted to use Iran's
airbase, but next time it will be done a lot more quietly. Russia Today (21-Aug) and AEI Iran Tracker and AP
****
**** Turkey begins to fully enter the war in Syria militarily
****
In a move that could once again change the direction of the war in
Syria, Turkey is beginning to fully enter the war in Syria. On
Monday, Turkey's military fired artillery shells across the border
into Syria, striking ISIS targets in one region, and striking Kurdish
militia targets in another region.
In addition, Turkey is preparing hundreds of Ankara-backed rebels for
an offensive against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh). The Kurdish militias are also conducting an offensive
against the same ISIS targets, opening the possibility of a collision.
Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Daesh [ISIS] should be completely cleansed from our
> borders and we are ready to do what it takes for
> that."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
As we wrote yesterday,
a major
terrorist attack Sunday in Turkey has led to an announcement by the
government of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to do a complete
U-turn on its Syria policy, allowing Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
to remain in power for six months after the peace agreement has been
signed. This change in policy was dictated by the increasing success
by the Syrian Kurds, whom Erdogan has said are terrorists linked to
the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
In the past, Turkey has been very cautious about directly entering the
war in Syria. In particular, Erdogan wanted international agreement
to implement a "no-fly zone" or "buffer zone" in northern Syria along
Turkey's border, to provide a space for refugee camps for Syrian
cities fleeing from the violence. In retrospect, this kind of no-fly
zone might have prevented or lessened the surge of refugees traveling
through Turkey into Europe. Erdogan never implemented a buffer zone
because it was opposed by the United States.
But now, the policy "to do what it takes" military seems to be yet
another aspect of Turkey's complete U-turn in Syria policy. If this
is the start of a major Turkish offensive in Syria, the war could
change dramatically. Reuters/AFP and AP
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mali, Timbuktu, Ahmad al-Faqi al-Mahdi,
International Criminal Court, ICC, Ansar Dine, Defenders of Faith,
Russia, Iran, Hamadan airbase, Hossein Dehghan, Hossein Ruyvaran,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Mevlut Cavusoglu
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- International Criminal Court gets conviction for 'cultural genocide' in Timbuktu Mali
- In an embarrassing turnaround, Russia removes its bombers from Iran
- Turkey begins to fully enter the war in Syria militarily
****
**** International Criminal Court gets conviction for 'cultural genocide' in Timbuktu Mali
****
Historic mosque and museum in Timbuktu, Mali
A jihadist, Ahmad al-Faqi al-Mahdi, pleaded guilty on Monday to the
crime of "cultural genocide" in the International Criminal Court for
destroying religious monuments in the ancient city of Timbuktu in
Mali.
The desecration of Timbuktu by al-Qaeda was a big story in 2012.
Founded between the 5th and 11th centuries by Tuareg desert nomads,
Timbuktu became a meeting point between north, south and west Africa
and a melting pot of black Africans, Berber, Arab and Tuareg desert
nomads. The trade of gold, salt, ivory and books made it the richest
region in west Africa and it attracted scholars, engineers and
architects from around Africa, growing into a major center of Islamic
culture by the 14th century. Timbuktu is home to nearly 100,000
ancient manuscripts, some dating to the 12th century, preserved in
family homes and private libraries under the care of religious
scholars.
In 2012, the al-Qaeda linked terror group, Ansar Dine (Defenders of
Faith), were using shovels, hoes and chisels to destroy Sufi Muslim
shrines and mosques that were built centuries ago. It was feared that
Ansar Dine would also destroy the 100,000 ancient manuscripts. As a
result, many citizens of Timbuktu carefully hid any manuscripts they
had in their possession. Many were also sent to Bamako, Mali's
capital city, where they would be safe from Ansar Dine.
According to the charges brought by the ICC against Ahmad Al Faqi Al
Mahdi:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is alleged that, until September 2012, he was the
> head of the "Hisbah" (body set up to uphold public morals and
> prevent vice), set up in April 2012. He was also associated with
> the work of the Islamic Court of Timbuktu and participated in
> executing its decisions. It is alleged that he was involved in the
> destruction of the buildings mentioned in the
> charge."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
On Monday, al-Mahdi pleaded guilty to the crimes he was charged
with, and said the following at his trial:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is also my hope that the years I will spend in
> prison will be source to purge the evil spirit that took me and I
> will keep my hopes high that the people will be able to forgive
> me.
>
> I would like to give a piece of advice to the Muslims in the world
> not to get involved in the kind of acts that I did because it will
> give no good to humanity."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Al-Mahdi could get a sentence of up to 30 years, but it's expected
that he'll be sentenced to less because he confessed to the crimes.
The ICC considers this to be a historic trial because it was the first
time that a jihadist was charged by the ICC, and it's the first time
that the principal charge was destruction of cultural property.
CNN
and Swiss Info and ICC Case Information Sheet (PDF)
****
**** In an embarrassing turnaround, Russia removes its bombers from Iran
****
Last week we reported that Russia's bombers would be traveling
from the Hamadan airbase in Iran, across Iraq airspace for
bombing raids into Syria. This was considered an embarrassment
to the US because US military had not been notified in advance,
and had to approve travel through Iraq's airspace. ( "17-Aug-16 World View -- Russia-Iran airbase agreement further isolates Saudi Arabia"
)
Russia bragged that they would be permitted to use Iran's airbase "as
long as required." Well, "as long as required" apparently ended on
Monday, when use of the airbase came to an abrupt halt because it was
no longer required, according to Russia's Defense Ministry spokesman:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Russian military aircraft that took part in the
> operation of conducting air strikes from Iran's Hamadan air base
> on terrorist targets in Syria have successfully completed all
> tasks.
>
> Further use of the Hamadan air base in the Islamic Republic of
> Iran by the Russian Aerospace Forces will be carried out on the
> basis of mutual agreements to fight terrorism and depending on the
> prevailing circumstances in Syria."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Iran’s Defense Minister Gen. Hossein Dehghan blamed Russia for
bragging, saying that it was "a kind of show off and ungentlemanly."
He said in an interview:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Naturally the Russians want to show that they are a
> superpower and an influential country and are present in all
> regional and global affairs. ... Of course grandstanding and
> incivility were behind the announcement."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Allowing Russia to use the airbase was controversial within Iran's
government. Hossein Ruyvaran, an Iranian political analyst who
teaches at the University of Tehran, was quoted as saying:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The chief issue being discussed comes down to this:
> does allowing the Russian Aerospace forces use the capabilities of
> this airbase violate the Article 14b of the Iranian Constitution
> or not? Because according to this article, any form of leasing an
> airfield to a foreign power to be used as an airbase – even for a
> peacekeeping mission – is forbidden."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This ties into some analysis that I've done in the past regarding
whether Iran would use a nuclear weapon on Israel. If you look at
Iran's history in the last century, including its two generational
crisis wars, the Constitutional Revolution of the 1900s decade and the
Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, combined with statements that they've
made, you see that they take pride in never attacking anyone else,
except in self-defense. Thus, I consider it almost impossible for
Iran to preemptively use a nuclear weapon on Israel, unless Israel
attacked first.
That doesn't make Iran the "good guy." Quite the contrary. Iran is
perfectly happy to do things like sponsoring terrorist acts around the
world through its puppet terrorist group Hezbollah, or supplying arms
to Palestinians for use against Israel, or fighting a proxy war in
Yemen, or supplying weapons and fighters to Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad for use in his genocidal extermination campaign on Sunnis,
making them war criminals. But the Iranian leaders still think that
they're wonderful people rather than war criminals because they don't
invade anyone.
So I see this Russian use of Iran's Hamadan airbase as crossing a red
line that challenges this "good guy" self-image, at least temporarily.
There will now be a debate in Iran's government that can go either
way. It's possible that Russia may again be permitted to use Iran's
airbase, but next time it will be done a lot more quietly. Russia Today (21-Aug) and AEI Iran Tracker and AP
****
**** Turkey begins to fully enter the war in Syria militarily
****
In a move that could once again change the direction of the war in
Syria, Turkey is beginning to fully enter the war in Syria. On
Monday, Turkey's military fired artillery shells across the border
into Syria, striking ISIS targets in one region, and striking Kurdish
militia targets in another region.
In addition, Turkey is preparing hundreds of Ankara-backed rebels for
an offensive against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh). The Kurdish militias are also conducting an offensive
against the same ISIS targets, opening the possibility of a collision.
Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Daesh [ISIS] should be completely cleansed from our
> borders and we are ready to do what it takes for
> that."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
As we wrote yesterday,
a major
terrorist attack Sunday in Turkey has led to an announcement by the
government of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to do a complete
U-turn on its Syria policy, allowing Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
to remain in power for six months after the peace agreement has been
signed. This change in policy was dictated by the increasing success
by the Syrian Kurds, whom Erdogan has said are terrorists linked to
the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
In the past, Turkey has been very cautious about directly entering the
war in Syria. In particular, Erdogan wanted international agreement
to implement a "no-fly zone" or "buffer zone" in northern Syria along
Turkey's border, to provide a space for refugee camps for Syrian
cities fleeing from the violence. In retrospect, this kind of no-fly
zone might have prevented or lessened the surge of refugees traveling
through Turkey into Europe. Erdogan never implemented a buffer zone
because it was opposed by the United States.
But now, the policy "to do what it takes" military seems to be yet
another aspect of Turkey's complete U-turn in Syria policy. If this
is the start of a major Turkish offensive in Syria, the war could
change dramatically. Reuters/AFP and AP
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mali, Timbuktu, Ahmad al-Faqi al-Mahdi,
International Criminal Court, ICC, Ansar Dine, Defenders of Faith,
Russia, Iran, Hamadan airbase, Hossein Dehghan, Hossein Ruyvaran,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Mevlut Cavusoglu
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
