05-13-2021, 09:51 PM
*** 14-May-21 World View -- Communal violence within Israel threatens much wider war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Israel-Gaza war continues to escalate
****
![[Image: g210513b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g210513b.jpg)
Israeli riot policeman tries to block a Jewish right-wing man as communal violence erupted in Lod on Wednesday (AP)
Communal or sectarian violence within Israel threatens a much
larger war. I'll return to that subject below.
The following are the recent developments in the war between
Israel and Hamas in Gaza:
My view has been that the current war would fizzle out within a few
months, like the 2014 war. The only thing that could prevent that is
if some third country, like Egypt or Turkey, actively entered the war
on the side of Hamas.
****
**** Communal violence within Israel threatens much wider war
****
However, there's a new development that changes that calculation. The
new development, which has apparently caught everyone by surprise, is
the rise of extremely bitter communal / sectarian violence between
Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs. To be clear, we're talking about
Israeli citizens who have for years been living side by side within
Israeli cities and towns. About 20% of Israel's total population are
Arabs.
There have been shootings, lynchings, rock-throwing, and stabbings.
The epicenter of the ethnic violence is Lod, a city with large Jewish
and Arab populations. However, the violence has been spreading
to cities across the country.
In one case, a lynching was shown on tv in real time. In the city of
Bat Yam, a live tv broadcast showed a Jewish mob dragging a man, whom
they believed to be Palestinian, out of his car before severely
beating him. Needless to day, the video of this live broadcast
has gone viral.
"Death to Arabs" is frequently chanted in rallies throughout the
country, including Haifa and Acre in the north, as well as Lod, Jaffa,
and Tiberias.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on both Jews and Arabs to
cease attacks on each other:
<QUOTE>"Nothing justifies the lynching of Arabs by Jews and
nothing justifies the lynching of Jews by Arabs."<END QUOTE>
Maybe nothing justifies these lynchings, but it's clear that these
lynchings are going to increase in number.
****
**** Generational Dynamics analysis -- the 58-Year Rule
****
As one commentator said, there has been a "social compact" in Israel
for decades, permitting Arabs and Jews to live together side by side
in peace, but now that social compact is coming apart at the seams.
The 58-Year Rule is a significant finding of modern generational
theory. According to the Generational Dynamics 58-Year Hypothesis,
which by now has been well proven, a new ethnic civil war will not
begin less than 58 years from the end of the previous ethnic civil
war. That's because 58 years is precisely amount the time when the
generations of survivors of the preceding war all die or retire, all
at once, and the younger post-war generations come to power. It has
now been 73 years since the end of the last ethnic civil war, the war
between Jews and Arabs that occurred with the partitioning of
Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, and so
Israel is fully ripe for a new ethnic civil war, and that seems to be
what's happening.
Two recent examples of ethnic civil wars are the Rwanda war of 1994
and the Bosnian war of 1995. In Rwanda and Bosnia, populations had
intermarried and were living on the same streets, where their children
had played together. But that did not stop someone from picking up a
machete, going next door, killing the father and children, raping the
wife, killing her, and then cutting them all up into mangled pieces.
These examples are the rule, not the exception, for ethnic civil wars.
So as long as the war between Israel and Gaza is at the top level
government levels, then the top-down war is likely to fizzle out, as I
said. But when the war is organic and bottom-up, then it's likely to
spread into a much wider war, crossing into neighboring countries.
So for those of you who can take a breather from Washington politics
and want to watch what's going on in the world, this is the place to
watch. If the communal violence dies down, then a larger war will be
avoided, for the time being. But if the communal violence grows and
spreads, it will probably engulf the entire Mideast.
As regular readers know (since I've written it many times),
Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and
Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs,
re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war,
pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic
groups against each other.
****
**** Understanding the mainstream media
****
This is a completely separate subject. The following text is
something that I posted in the Generational Dynamics forum that may be
of interest to a larger audience.
The problem is that media sources have become dishonest and
censorious, and so the question is: Who is to be believed?
But after writing thousands of articles over almost 20 years, I've
developed a pretty good intuition about who in the media is telling
the truth and who is bullshitting.
I should probably put together a whole big article on the subject, but
here are some sample conclusions:
CNN, MSNBC, AP, Tehran Times, Russia Today, China Daily are all
similar in that they're "state media," and just parrot the government
line uncritically.
Fox News generally lives up to its "fair and balanced" claim, since
they present both sides of issues pretty fairly.
For international news, the BBC is pretty good, but when it reports on
American news, which it does all the time, it's the same as CNN and
MSNBC. BBC receives a great deal of funding from NPR, and so it is
required to follow the same Democrat party talking points.
Al-Jazeera is also pretty good with international news. But you'll
never see a negative story about Qatar. Also, they hate Israel, and
they hate the Palestinian Authority even more, but they love Hamas.
But for Asian news they're pretty good. Oh, and they hate America,
and they REALLY hate Trump.
AFP is pretty good for Mideast, Asian and African news. VOA and RFERL
are pretty reliable.
Reuters is an interesting case, because I've found them to be almost
always completely fair and balanced. I believe that the reason is
that Thomson Reuters is an Canadian company, so they have a wholly
different view of the world.
When I'm writing an international story, I have to use each news
source in a credible way. For example, I'll consider China Daily or
Global Times to be an accurate statement of China's political
position, and I would consider them more credible on this subject
than, say, Reuters or AP or the BBC. On the other hand, the BBC is
much more credible about China's actions.
In an international story, like the Israel-Palestine story of today, I
don't want to take sides, so I try to find accounts from each side,
ideally to quote them in parallel. This is not always easy to do.
And of course I'm always guided by previous Generational Dynamics
conclusions. For example, I've known for decades that there will
never be a "two-state solution" in the Mideast, so I know
automatically that any policitian who talks about it is full of crap.
So maybe at some point I'll expand this into a more comprehensive
article.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Tel Aviv, Lod, Iran, Ben Gurion airport, Ramon airport,
58-Year Rule, China, Pakistan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Israel-Gaza war continues to escalate
- Communal violence within Israel threatens much wider war
- Generational Dynamics analysis -- the 58-Year Rule
- Understanding the mainstream media
****
**** Israel-Gaza war continues to escalate
****
Israeli riot policeman tries to block a Jewish right-wing man as communal violence erupted in Lod on Wednesday (AP)
Communal or sectarian violence within Israel threatens a much
larger war. I'll return to that subject below.
The following are the recent developments in the war between
Israel and Hamas in Gaza:
- In the last two days, Hamas has launched over 1,500 rockets
into Israel, targeting large population areas like Tel Aviv. The
rocket attacks have killed six Israelis, and injured hundreds
others.
- Israel has retaliated with airstrikes into Gaza. Israel has
targeted large apartment buildings, which puts civilians at risk,
because Hamas purposely stores military hardware and military offices
side by side with civilians in these buildings. Some 96 Gaza
civilians have been killed, and hundreds have been injured or
displaced.
- Hamas's rockets are supplied by Iran. Hamas has built up an
inventory of these weapons over the years. Hamas has recently
acquired a new long-range rocket with a range of 200-250 km, which
puts most of Israel within range.
- Hamas would like to force Israel to shut down its airspace. Hamas
has launched rockets in the direction of Ben Gurion airport, forcing
Israel to divert flights to Ramon airport in far southern Israel. But
now Hamas is launching its new long-range rocket towards Ramon
airport, but it landed in the open desert.
- Israel has called up 9,000 reservists and is massing troops and
tanks on the border with Gaza in preparation for a possible ground
invasion. Israel has been launching artillery attacks across the
border into Gaza. A late announcement is that there are some ground
troops in Gaza.
- It's estimated that there are 20-30 thousand armed Hamas and
security personnel inside Gaza, so any Israeli ground invasion would
mean major bloodshed for the military on both sides, and for the
thousands of civilians caught in the crossfire in the densely
populated Gaza Strip.
My view has been that the current war would fizzle out within a few
months, like the 2014 war. The only thing that could prevent that is
if some third country, like Egypt or Turkey, actively entered the war
on the side of Hamas.
****
**** Communal violence within Israel threatens much wider war
****
However, there's a new development that changes that calculation. The
new development, which has apparently caught everyone by surprise, is
the rise of extremely bitter communal / sectarian violence between
Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs. To be clear, we're talking about
Israeli citizens who have for years been living side by side within
Israeli cities and towns. About 20% of Israel's total population are
Arabs.
There have been shootings, lynchings, rock-throwing, and stabbings.
The epicenter of the ethnic violence is Lod, a city with large Jewish
and Arab populations. However, the violence has been spreading
to cities across the country.
In one case, a lynching was shown on tv in real time. In the city of
Bat Yam, a live tv broadcast showed a Jewish mob dragging a man, whom
they believed to be Palestinian, out of his car before severely
beating him. Needless to day, the video of this live broadcast
has gone viral.
"Death to Arabs" is frequently chanted in rallies throughout the
country, including Haifa and Acre in the north, as well as Lod, Jaffa,
and Tiberias.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on both Jews and Arabs to
cease attacks on each other:
<QUOTE>"Nothing justifies the lynching of Arabs by Jews and
nothing justifies the lynching of Jews by Arabs."<END QUOTE>
Maybe nothing justifies these lynchings, but it's clear that these
lynchings are going to increase in number.
****
**** Generational Dynamics analysis -- the 58-Year Rule
****
As one commentator said, there has been a "social compact" in Israel
for decades, permitting Arabs and Jews to live together side by side
in peace, but now that social compact is coming apart at the seams.
The 58-Year Rule is a significant finding of modern generational
theory. According to the Generational Dynamics 58-Year Hypothesis,
which by now has been well proven, a new ethnic civil war will not
begin less than 58 years from the end of the previous ethnic civil
war. That's because 58 years is precisely amount the time when the
generations of survivors of the preceding war all die or retire, all
at once, and the younger post-war generations come to power. It has
now been 73 years since the end of the last ethnic civil war, the war
between Jews and Arabs that occurred with the partitioning of
Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, and so
Israel is fully ripe for a new ethnic civil war, and that seems to be
what's happening.
Two recent examples of ethnic civil wars are the Rwanda war of 1994
and the Bosnian war of 1995. In Rwanda and Bosnia, populations had
intermarried and were living on the same streets, where their children
had played together. But that did not stop someone from picking up a
machete, going next door, killing the father and children, raping the
wife, killing her, and then cutting them all up into mangled pieces.
These examples are the rule, not the exception, for ethnic civil wars.
So as long as the war between Israel and Gaza is at the top level
government levels, then the top-down war is likely to fizzle out, as I
said. But when the war is organic and bottom-up, then it's likely to
spread into a much wider war, crossing into neighboring countries.
So for those of you who can take a breather from Washington politics
and want to watch what's going on in the world, this is the place to
watch. If the communal violence dies down, then a larger war will be
avoided, for the time being. But if the communal violence grows and
spreads, it will probably engulf the entire Mideast.
As regular readers know (since I've written it many times),
Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and
Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs,
re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war,
pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic
groups against each other.
****
**** Understanding the mainstream media
****
This is a completely separate subject. The following text is
something that I posted in the Generational Dynamics forum that may be
of interest to a larger audience.
The problem is that media sources have become dishonest and
censorious, and so the question is: Who is to be believed?
But after writing thousands of articles over almost 20 years, I've
developed a pretty good intuition about who in the media is telling
the truth and who is bullshitting.
I should probably put together a whole big article on the subject, but
here are some sample conclusions:
CNN, MSNBC, AP, Tehran Times, Russia Today, China Daily are all
similar in that they're "state media," and just parrot the government
line uncritically.
Fox News generally lives up to its "fair and balanced" claim, since
they present both sides of issues pretty fairly.
For international news, the BBC is pretty good, but when it reports on
American news, which it does all the time, it's the same as CNN and
MSNBC. BBC receives a great deal of funding from NPR, and so it is
required to follow the same Democrat party talking points.
Al-Jazeera is also pretty good with international news. But you'll
never see a negative story about Qatar. Also, they hate Israel, and
they hate the Palestinian Authority even more, but they love Hamas.
But for Asian news they're pretty good. Oh, and they hate America,
and they REALLY hate Trump.
AFP is pretty good for Mideast, Asian and African news. VOA and RFERL
are pretty reliable.
Reuters is an interesting case, because I've found them to be almost
always completely fair and balanced. I believe that the reason is
that Thomson Reuters is an Canadian company, so they have a wholly
different view of the world.
When I'm writing an international story, I have to use each news
source in a credible way. For example, I'll consider China Daily or
Global Times to be an accurate statement of China's political
position, and I would consider them more credible on this subject
than, say, Reuters or AP or the BBC. On the other hand, the BBC is
much more credible about China's actions.
In an international story, like the Israel-Palestine story of today, I
don't want to take sides, so I try to find accounts from each side,
ideally to quote them in parallel. This is not always easy to do.
And of course I'm always guided by previous Generational Dynamics
conclusions. For example, I've known for decades that there will
never be a "two-state solution" in the Mideast, so I know
automatically that any policitian who talks about it is full of crap.
So maybe at some point I'll expand this into a more comprehensive
article.
Sources:
- Gaza-Israel conflict heading 'towards a full-scale war' as violence escalates (Telegraph, London, 12-May-2021)
- Israel in chaos: 10 Border Police units called up to quell Arab-Jewish violence (Jerusalem Post, 13-May-2021)
- 'Lynchings' on streets of Israel: Mob drag 'Arab man' out of his car and beat him after he 'tried to ram them' - as violent far-right protests break out in cities across the country (Daily Mail, London, 12-May-2021)
- IRGC Aerospace Force And Missile Unit Commander Hajizadeh: 'All The Missile Might You See In Gaza... Was Created With Iran's Support... And This Effort Has Continued Around The Clock For Years' (Memri, 13-May-2021)
- Hamas, Islamic Jihad Officials: Iran Provides Our Missiles, Weapons, Funds, And Food, Our Gunmen 'Were Trained By Our Brothers In The IRGC'; Without Iran's Assistance, We Wouldn't Be Able To Fire Rockets At Tel Aviv; Qassem Soleimani Personally Oversaw Transfer Of Rockets To Gaza (Memri, 12-May-2021)
- Israel masses troops at Gaza border as president warns of ‘senseless civil war’ (Evening Standard, London, 13-May-2021)
- Israel threatens Gaza ground invasion despite truce efforts (AP, 13-May-2021)
- Israel declares ground assault on Gaza as crisis deepens (Telegraph, London, 13-May-2021)
- Soldier viciously beaten in Jaffa, synagogue burned in Lod as rioting renews (Times Of Israel, 13-May-2021)
- Israeli president warns of civil war as Jews, Arabs clash over Gaza (Reuters, 13-May-2021)
- Lod: Why an Israeli town's mayor is warning of civil war (BBC, 12-May-2021)
- Three rockets fired from Lebanon towards Israel, no injuries (Jerusalem Post, 13-May-2021)
- Israeli Defense Minister Threatens 'Gaza Will Burn' as IDF Readies Plans for Ground Invasion (Common Dreams, 13-May-2021)
Related Articles:
- Violence escalates between Israelis and Palestinians in Jerusalem and Gaza (11-May-2021)
- Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Tel Aviv, Lod, Iran, Ben Gurion airport, Ramon airport,
58-Year Rule, China, Pakistan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
